Tennessee’s 1st Congressional District House Race
Tennessee’s 1st Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat in the northeastern part of the state, will choose its next U.S. House representative in the 2026 midterm elections. The district covers cities like Kingsport, Johnson City, and Bristol. Party primaries will determine the general election matchup ahead of the fall vote.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on hundreds of district races like this one, even in seats considered safe for one party. Primary outcomes can reshape a district’s political identity and signal broader shifts within each party’s base. Results here will feed into national narratives about momentum heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is which party ultimately claims the seat, with separate contracts isolating individual candidates within that outcome. Given the district’s partisan lean, the market effectively functions as a proxy for gauging the eventual Republican nominee’s identity rather than genuine two-party competition. Attention centers on how decisively any single candidate consolidates support before the general election.
Related terms
Total Volume
$38k
Kalshi $3.7k · Polymarket $34.3k
Leading Market
Diana Harshbarger
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 99%
Diana Harshbarger Volume
$11.6k
Kalshi $1.2k · Polymarket $10.3k
Diana Harshbarger 24h Change
+0.60%
Kalshi +0.60% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana HarshbargerRepublican Party | 99.6¢ | 7.0% | , trade Diana Harshbarger on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Diana Harshbarger on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Kristi BredbennerDemocratic Party | 2.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Kristi Bredbenner on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade Kristi Bredbenner on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diana HarshbargerRepublican Party | $11,593.58 | ||
| Kristi BredbennerDemocratic Party | $26,389.06 |