Tennessee’s 4th District House Race Winner
Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District will choose a new U.S. House representative in the 2026 midterm elections. The district, which spans a largely rural swath of middle Tennessee, has leaned Republican in recent cycles. The race will determine who represents the area in Washington for the next term.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often hinges on a handful of competitive districts, and midterm outcomes in red-leaning seats can signal broader shifts in voter sentiment. A surprising result here could reflect national trends around the sitting president’s approval or economic conditions heading into 2026. Local turnout and candidate quality will also shape how the district trends going forward.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is simple: which party ultimately holds the seat once votes are counted. Traders are effectively weighing the district’s partisan lean against any signs of a shifting national mood that could narrow the margin. Separate contracts on individual candidates let participants isolate specific matchups within the broader partisan question, distinguishing name-recognition effects from party-level dynamics.
Related terms
Total Volume
$149.4k
Kalshi $8.5k · Polymarket $140.8k
Leading Market
Scott DesJarlais
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 97%
Scott DesJarlais Volume
$55.2k
Kalshi $5.3k · Polymarket $49.9k
Scott DesJarlais 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi -1.10% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott DesJarlaisRepublican Party | 98.2¢ | 7.0% | , trade Scott DesJarlais on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Scott DesJarlais on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Victoria FrederickDemocratic Party | 3.2¢ | 7.0% | , trade Victoria Frederick on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Victoria Frederick on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott DesJarlaisRepublican Party | $55,174.71 | ||
| Victoria FrederickDemocratic Party | $94,198.53 |