Texas State Senate Election: 2026 Winner

Texas' open U.S. Senate race has narrowed to a close contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, with Libertarian Ted Brown also on the ballot. The seat is being vacated by John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton. Polls show the race within the margin of error, giving Talarico a slight edge as Democrats seek their first statewide Texas win since 1994.

Paxton, attorney general since 2015 and a longtime conservative legal combatant against federal policy, has backing from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Senate GOP leadership but did not respond to candidate questionnaires. Talarico, serving his fourth House term, has set state fundraising records and drawn endorsements from labor and civil rights groups. Brown, a longtime Libertarian activist, rounds out the field.

Early voting runs Oct. 19 through Oct. 30, with Election Day on Nov. 3. The Senate race shares the ballot with Texas' gubernatorial contest between Gov. Greg Abbott and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. With the Senate split 53-47 in Republicans' favor, a Democratic upset in Texas would ease their path toward a majority, making the race a closely watched national bellwether.

Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder says the party has erased its debt and built a $30 million coordinated campaign since he took over in March 2025, up from a $2 million effort under his predecessor. He credits a restructuring that moved staff out of Austin and into Dallas, Houston, Eagle Pass, and Amarillo, along with recruiting more than 1,000 precinct chairs, as key to preparing for competitive races ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2030 redistricting cycle.

Scudder also addressed the contested Senate primary won by State Representative James Talarico over U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, arguing Talarico now has a party infrastructure Beto O'Rourke lacked in his narrow 2018 loss. On data centers, he accused Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton of feigning opposition while Abbott's administration has committed roughly $1 billion in taxpayer incentives to the industry, calling their posture insincere and warning it could hurt Republican turnout in rural Texas, where the issue has become politically sensitive.

Polling and interviews across Texas point to a significant erosion of Latino support for President Trump since his 2024 gains, driven by frustration over high prices, gas costs, and aggressive ICE enforcement that has rattled South Texas communities and economies. Strategists describe the shift as a rebuke of Republicans rather than genuine enthusiasm for Democrats, who still carry a damaged brand with many Latino voters. The trend could shape Texas's competitive U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, as well as newly redrawn majority-Hispanic congressional districts. Analysts expect Latino support for Democrats to partially rebound toward 2018 levels, but caution that voters remain persuadable and increasingly judge candidates individually rather than by party.

With early voting set to begin Oct. 19 ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Texas candidates are ramping up outreach efforts statewide. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico launched an Austin canvassing effort over the weekend, his first public campaign event since Sept. 30 when he disclosed he had the flu. He also made a surprise appearance at the Austin City Limits music festival the day before. Talarico did not address his absence publicly or take questions from reporters.

Republican nominee and Attorney General Ken Paxton used the gap to highlight his own continued travel across Texas, including stops at the TX Youth Summit and Moms for Liberty Summit, and his campaign launched a mocking "Tala-Freak-Out" tip line referencing Talarico's whereabouts.

Down-ballot races are also heating up: in Travis County's Texas House District 47, Democrat Pooja Sethi and Republican Jennifer Mushtaler are both intensifying door-to-door canvassing, citing voter concerns over affordability, education, and gas prices as early voting approaches.

The Texas U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has turned to recycled material from past campaigns, most notably a 2018 video showing Paxton pocketing a $1,000 Montblanc pen left behind at a Collin County courthouse security checkpoint. Paxton returned the pen once notified of the mix-up, and his campaign at the time called the episode a nonstory. The clip originally surfaced in an ad from Justin Nelson, Paxton's 2018 Democratic challenger, who narrowly lost that race.

Talarico's campaign has now revived the footage and its "won't steal your pen" tagline in a new ad, adding a fresh endorsement from Joe Joplin, the pen's original owner. The ad also follows renewed attention to Paxton's past securities fraud indictment, resolved without conviction, and his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, which ended in acquittal by the state Senate. The race is considered one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country this cycle.

The Texas Senate race between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton has become one of the most expensive nonpresidential contests in U.S. history, with more than half a billion dollars already spent on advertising. Polls show Talarico holding a narrow lead, fueling Democratic hopes in a state the party hasn't won statewide in 32 years.

The contest increasingly centers on competing portrayals of Talarico. He has campaigned as a bipartisan, faith-driven Texan with policy proposals including capping credit card rates, cutting middle-class taxes, and helping first-time homebuyers. Paxton and allies have cast him as a "weird" radical, citing past remarks he later renounced about gender and sexuality. Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Paxton this week, drawing attention for a joke referencing Talarico's relationship with a former aide.

With both sides pouring unprecedented resources into the race, it has become a closely watched test of whether Democrats can break Texas's long Republican hold on statewide office.

Billboard-famous Texas personal injury attorney Thomas J. Henry has endorsed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for U.S. Senate, a reversal after he backed Republican Ken Paxton in the May primary and donated over $646,000 to a pro-Paxton PAC. Henry said meeting Talarico in person convinced him of his "balanced, straightforward and honest" approach, while mounting scandals around Paxton changed his view. Henry joins other notable Paxton-adjacent figures shifting support, including attorney Dan Cogdell, who once defended Paxton, and Neil Bush, brother of George W. Bush. The endorsements add to a competitive, closely watched Texas Senate race between Paxton and Talarico ahead of Election Day.

Texas state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat competing closely with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the state's U.S. Senate seat, took part in a 90-minute CNN/Jubilee town hall on October 14. Critics characterized the event as friendly territory, with a sympathetic moderator and mostly favorable questions, though a handful of attendees pushed back directly. Supporters point to Talarico's polished delivery and comparisons to Barack Obama's political style, while detractors argue his performance relied on dodging tough scrutiny rather than facing a genuinely adversarial format. The appearance adds to the narrative arc of a competitive Senate race being closely watched heading into the election cycle.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced his office will distribute 7 million free eggs to residents through at least 17 food banks statewide, in partnership with Feeding Texas. The giveaway stems from settlements reached in June with egg producers Cal-Maine Foods, Centrum/Versova and Hickman's Egg Ranch over antitrust claims alleging the companies conspired to inflate egg prices between 2022 and 2025. The producers also agreed to pay $3.3 million to states that joined Texas in the claim.

The move comes as Paxton campaigns for the US Senate seat held by Sen. John Cornyn, facing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who separately organized a food drive across several Texas cities to highlight rising grocery costs. Affordability remains the top concern for voters heading into the 2026 midterms, with polling showing weak approval of the administration's handling of the economy and Democrats gaining an edge on cost-of-living issues. National egg prices have eased to roughly $2.18 per dozen after spiking above $6 earlier in 2025.