Texas Senate Race Margin of Victory

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has accepted more than $500,000 in donations from alcohol industry PACs and executives since 2014, even as his office has sued to overturn local marijuana decriminalization measures and defended new restrictions on hemp-derived THC products. Texas recently classified certain hemp THC products, including delta-8 and delta-10, as Schedule I substances, making possession a felony. A judge recently declined to block the crackdown while litigation continues.

Democratic Senate opponent James Talarico has accused Paxton of doing the bidding of "big beer and big tobacco" donors rather than protecting public health, calling the arrangement corrupt. Paxton did not respond to requests for comment and was recently seen deflecting a question on the THC ban in a video that Texas Democrats seized on. Democratic lieutenant governor nominee Vikki Goodwin has made similar claims against Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who also received substantial alcohol industry contributions and backed hemp restrictions later vetoed by Gov. Greg Abbott before being reimposed via executive order. The issue is emerging as a flashpoint in Texas's 2026 statewide races.

Texas Attorney General and GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton has been caught on leaked audio complaining that Washington operatives and party leaders, rather than himself, are controlling his campaign's messaging. "I've never been in a race where I felt less control," Paxton said at a fundraiser, adding frustration that decisions were coming "from DC." His campaign says he was referring to super PACs, which cannot legally coordinate with campaigns but have spent heavily on his behalf. A separate leaked recording had Paxton acknowledging his numbers dropped after a Trump-headlined GOP convention in Dallas.

The disclosures add to visible strain within Texas Republican ranks ahead of the November 3 election against Democrat James Talarico, with Senator John Cornyn among those reluctant to fully rally behind Paxton. Angela Paxton, the AG's estranged wife who filed for divorce in July 2025 citing adultery, has released a PAC-funded ad urging Republicans to back the full GOP ticket regardless of individual candidates. Polling shows Talarico with a narrow lead, and Republicans have poured tens of millions of dollars into defending the seat.

The Texas U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has turned to recycled material from past campaigns, most notably a 2018 video showing Paxton pocketing a $1,000 Montblanc pen left behind at a Collin County courthouse security checkpoint. Paxton returned the pen once notified of the mix-up, and his campaign at the time called the episode a nonstory. The clip originally surfaced in an ad from Justin Nelson, Paxton's 2018 Democratic challenger, who narrowly lost that race.

Talarico's campaign has now revived the footage and its "won't steal your pen" tagline in a new ad, adding a fresh endorsement from Joe Joplin, the pen's original owner. The ad also follows renewed attention to Paxton's past securities fraud indictment, resolved without conviction, and his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, which ended in acquittal by the state Senate. The race is considered one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country this cycle.

Billboard-famous Texas personal injury attorney Thomas J. Henry has endorsed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for U.S. Senate, a reversal after he backed Republican Ken Paxton in the May primary and donated over $646,000 to a pro-Paxton PAC. Henry said meeting Talarico in person convinced him of his "balanced, straightforward and honest" approach, while mounting scandals around Paxton changed his view. Henry joins other notable Paxton-adjacent figures shifting support, including attorney Dan Cogdell, who once defended Paxton, and Neil Bush, brother of George W. Bush. The endorsements add to a competitive, closely watched Texas Senate race between Paxton and Talarico ahead of Election Day.

With early voting set to begin Oct. 19 ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Texas candidates are ramping up outreach efforts statewide. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico launched an Austin canvassing effort over the weekend, his first public campaign event since Sept. 30 when he disclosed he had the flu. He also made a surprise appearance at the Austin City Limits music festival the day before. Talarico did not address his absence publicly or take questions from reporters.

Republican nominee and Attorney General Ken Paxton used the gap to highlight his own continued travel across Texas, including stops at the TX Youth Summit and Moms for Liberty Summit, and his campaign launched a mocking "Tala-Freak-Out" tip line referencing Talarico's whereabouts.

Down-ballot races are also heating up: in Travis County's Texas House District 47, Democrat Pooja Sethi and Republican Jennifer Mushtaler are both intensifying door-to-door canvassing, citing voter concerns over affordability, education, and gas prices as early voting approaches.

President Donald Trump traveled to San Antonio to rally support for Ken Paxton's U.S. Senate campaign, his third Texas trip in under a month, amid polling showing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico within striking distance of becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas in more than three decades. Trump warned the crowd Texans would "never forgive" the state if Talarico won, using derogatory nicknames and repeating a false claim that Talarico is vegan.

The speech leaned heavily on cultural and immigration messaging, with Trump linking a potential Democratic win to border security fears and falsely claiming Democrats would eliminate oil and gas jobs. He also touted a planned firing-squad execution of a Fort Hood attacker and repeated promises of $5,000 payments to Americans and one-time Medicare payments to seniors. Gov. Greg Abbott, also on the ballot, was notably absent. The rally comes as national polls show Democrats favored to retake Congress and Trump's approval ratings sagging, raising stakes for Republicans trying to hold the Senate.

More than 6.4 million Texans cast ballots during early voting, surpassing the state's previous non-presidential-year record of 5.5 million set in 2018. The figures exclude mail-in ballots. Analysts point to the closely watched Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, now the most expensive Senate contest in history with over $560 million in combined ad spending, as the main driver of turnout. The governor's race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, plus growth in suburban counties like Collin County, also contributed. Some experts project total turnout could reach 10 million votes, which would break the state's all-time midterm record.

Election Day voting runs Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Texas heads into a Nov. 3 election featuring high-profile statewide races, including Gov. Greg Abbott's contest against Democrat Gina Hinojosa and a U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Additional battles for congressional and state legislature seats are also on the ballot.

Voters interviewed at the State Fair of Texas in Dallas offered mixed predictions about the state's political trajectory. Many expressed confidence Texas will remain reliably Republican, while others, pointing to shifts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, suggested the state could be inching toward competitive territory. Several voters said economic concerns, particularly persistent inflation and reduced disposable income, are shaping their views more than party allegiance. Some cited dissatisfaction with the current presidential administration as a driving factor in their outlook.

The races are being watched closely as indicators of whether traditionally red Texas is becoming more competitive, with economic sentiment likely to play a significant role in turnout and outcomes across the state's marquee contests.

Vice President JD Vance held a midterm campaign rally in Tyler, Texas, on behalf of Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, who faces Democratic state Representative James Talarico in the general election. During the event, Vance announced a Trump administration partnership with Delek Refining to expand its Tyler facility, framing it as a boost to energy supply, jobs, and transportation costs.

Vance used the rally to highlight Paxton's record as attorney general, including lawsuits against the Biden administration, actions against pharmaceutical companies over drug safety claims, border enforcement efforts, and his role in ending transgender medical treatments for minors at a major Texas hospital. He also attacked Talarico over past comments on gender, race, policing, and diet, portraying him as out of step with Texas voters and aligned with progressive Democrats in Congress.

The race is one of several competitive Senate contests shaping up ahead of the midterms, with both parties working to energize their bases in a state Republicans have long controlled but Democrats see as increasingly competitive.