Texas Attorney General Election: Who Will Win in 2026

Texas Democrats are testing whether anti-Trump sentiment can break the GOP's decades-long statewide winning streak, with no Democrat having won statewide office since 1994. The marquee race pits Democratic state Rep. James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for a U.S. Senate seat that could affect the chamber's balance. Gov. Greg Abbott faces an unexpectedly close challenge from state Rep. Gina Hinojosa despite a large fundraising edge. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll found several other statewide races within the margin of error, including lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and a Railroad Commission seat. The elections will also test a Republican plan to redraw five Democratic U.S. House districts.

Texas's 2026 elections feature unexpectedly competitive statewide races, a rarity in a state no Democrat has won statewide since 1994. The marquee contest pits state Rep. James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, with control of the chamber and the final two years of President Trump's term potentially at stake. Gov. Greg Abbott faces a tighter-than-expected challenge from state Rep. Gina Hinojosa despite a large fundraising edge. A recent University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Democrat Vikki Goodwin narrowly ahead of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Nathan Johnson slightly leading Mayes Middleton for attorney general, with all surveyed races within the margin of error. Republicans' new congressional redistricting plan will also be tested.

Texas heads into its Nov. 3, 2026 election with several races drawing unusually close national attention. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is running competitively against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, a race polling shows within margin of error — the closest Texas Senate contest since Democrats last held the seat in 1993. Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, holds a smaller-than-usual lead over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who would be the state's first Democratic governor in over 30 years and first Latina governor if elected. Down-ballot races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and other statewide posts are also tighter than in recent cycles.

The election marks the first test of Texas's new congressional map, redrawn last year at President Trump's urging to net Republicans five additional U.S. House seats after Supreme Court approval. Ten open House seats add further uncertainty. Affordability, property taxes, and growing bipartisan backlash against data centers are emerging as major voter concerns statewide.

Texas voters head to the polls with Republicans defending longtime dominance amid Democratic hopes fueled by opposition to President Trump. The marquee race pits Democratic state Rep. James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, with control implications for Trump's final two years. Gov. Greg Abbott faces an unexpectedly close challenge from state Rep. Gina Hinojosa despite a fundraising edge. Down-ballot, polling shows tight margins for lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and a Railroad Commission seat. Democrats must flip 14 Texas House seats and four Senate seats for majorities. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. Early voting runs through October 30.

The Texas U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has turned to recycled material from past campaigns, most notably a 2018 video showing Paxton pocketing a $1,000 Montblanc pen left behind at a Collin County courthouse security checkpoint. Paxton returned the pen once notified of the mix-up, and his campaign at the time called the episode a nonstory. The clip originally surfaced in an ad from Justin Nelson, Paxton's 2018 Democratic challenger, who narrowly lost that race.

Talarico's campaign has now revived the footage and its "won't steal your pen" tagline in a new ad, adding a fresh endorsement from Joe Joplin, the pen's original owner. The ad also follows renewed attention to Paxton's past securities fraud indictment, resolved without conviction, and his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, which ended in acquittal by the state Senate. The race is considered one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country this cycle.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has accepted more than $500,000 in donations from alcohol industry PACs and executives since 2014, even as his office has sued to overturn local marijuana decriminalization measures and defended new restrictions on hemp-derived THC products. Texas recently classified certain hemp THC products, including delta-8 and delta-10, as Schedule I substances, making possession a felony. A judge recently declined to block the crackdown while litigation continues.

Democratic Senate opponent James Talarico has accused Paxton of doing the bidding of "big beer and big tobacco" donors rather than protecting public health, calling the arrangement corrupt. Paxton did not respond to requests for comment and was recently seen deflecting a question on the THC ban in a video that Texas Democrats seized on. Democratic lieutenant governor nominee Vikki Goodwin has made similar claims against Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who also received substantial alcohol industry contributions and backed hemp restrictions later vetoed by Gov. Greg Abbott before being reimposed via executive order. The issue is emerging as a flashpoint in Texas's 2026 statewide races.

Harris County, Texas, has settled a lawsuit filed by the state attorney general's office over "Get Out the Vote" ads that used Meta ad-targeting tags tied to groups such as African-American literature, Latin music and Hispanic kitchen content. The office, led by Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth, spent roughly $43,000 on the ads over 30 days and has agreed to remove the demographic targeting and not reinstate it for the rest of the election. Hudspeth said the tags were dropped to avoid distraction while defending the outreach as lawful; the county attorney's office called the suit a political distraction. The dispute comes as Harris County has already topped 1 million early votes ahead of the November 3 election.

Texas Attorney General and GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton has been caught on leaked audio complaining that Washington operatives and party leaders, rather than himself, are controlling his campaign's messaging. "I've never been in a race where I felt less control," Paxton said at a fundraiser, adding frustration that decisions were coming "from DC." His campaign says he was referring to super PACs, which cannot legally coordinate with campaigns but have spent heavily on his behalf. A separate leaked recording had Paxton acknowledging his numbers dropped after a Trump-headlined GOP convention in Dallas.

The disclosures add to visible strain within Texas Republican ranks ahead of the November 3 election against Democrat James Talarico, with Senator John Cornyn among those reluctant to fully rally behind Paxton. Angela Paxton, the AG's estranged wife who filed for divorce in July 2025 citing adultery, has released a PAC-funded ad urging Republicans to back the full GOP ticket regardless of individual candidates. Polling shows Talarico with a narrow lead, and Republicans have poured tens of millions of dollars into defending the seat.

Texas PAC, a super PAC backed by Senate Leadership Fund and aligned with Senate Republican leadership, could spend as much as $200 million by Nov. 3 to boost Ken Paxton's Senate campaign, according to Punchbowl News. The group has already booked $117 million in advertising in the state as it works to help Paxton compete against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, with further spending contingent on how much Senate Leadership Fund can raise.

The scale of the investment underscores GOP anxiety about the race: Paxton has not led Talarico in a single public poll since mid-August, and private Republican polling reportedly mirrors those public numbers. The heavy spending signals Texas, traditionally a safe Republican seat, is now viewed as competitive, a development prediction markets tracking Senate control will likely weigh closely as the race tightens heading into November.