Combined Outcome of Maine and Texas Senate Races in 2026

The Texas U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has turned to recycled material from past campaigns, most notably a 2018 video showing Paxton pocketing a $1,000 Montblanc pen left behind at a Collin County courthouse security checkpoint. Paxton returned the pen once notified of the mix-up, and his campaign at the time called the episode a nonstory. The clip originally surfaced in an ad from Justin Nelson, Paxton's 2018 Democratic challenger, who narrowly lost that race.

Talarico's campaign has now revived the footage and its "won't steal your pen" tagline in a new ad, adding a fresh endorsement from Joe Joplin, the pen's original owner. The ad also follows renewed attention to Paxton's past securities fraud indictment, resolved without conviction, and his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, which ended in acquittal by the state Senate. The race is considered one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country this cycle.

With early voting set to begin Oct. 19 ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Texas candidates are ramping up outreach efforts statewide. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico launched an Austin canvassing effort over the weekend, his first public campaign event since Sept. 30 when he disclosed he had the flu. He also made a surprise appearance at the Austin City Limits music festival the day before. Talarico did not address his absence publicly or take questions from reporters.

Republican nominee and Attorney General Ken Paxton used the gap to highlight his own continued travel across Texas, including stops at the TX Youth Summit and Moms for Liberty Summit, and his campaign launched a mocking "Tala-Freak-Out" tip line referencing Talarico's whereabouts.

Down-ballot races are also heating up: in Travis County's Texas House District 47, Democrat Pooja Sethi and Republican Jennifer Mushtaler are both intensifying door-to-door canvassing, citing voter concerns over affordability, education, and gas prices as early voting approaches.

Billboard-famous Texas personal injury attorney Thomas J. Henry has endorsed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for U.S. Senate, a reversal after he backed Republican Ken Paxton in the May primary and donated over $646,000 to a pro-Paxton PAC. Henry said meeting Talarico in person convinced him of his "balanced, straightforward and honest" approach, while mounting scandals around Paxton changed his view. Henry joins other notable Paxton-adjacent figures shifting support, including attorney Dan Cogdell, who once defended Paxton, and Neil Bush, brother of George W. Bush. The endorsements add to a competitive, closely watched Texas Senate race between Paxton and Talarico ahead of Election Day.

President Donald Trump traveled to San Antonio to rally support for Ken Paxton's U.S. Senate campaign, his third Texas trip in under a month, amid polling showing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico within striking distance of becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas in more than three decades. Trump warned the crowd Texans would "never forgive" the state if Talarico won, using derogatory nicknames and repeating a false claim that Talarico is vegan.

The speech leaned heavily on cultural and immigration messaging, with Trump linking a potential Democratic win to border security fears and falsely claiming Democrats would eliminate oil and gas jobs. He also touted a planned firing-squad execution of a Fort Hood attacker and repeated promises of $5,000 payments to Americans and one-time Medicare payments to seniors. Gov. Greg Abbott, also on the ballot, was notably absent. The rally comes as national polls show Democrats favored to retake Congress and Trump's approval ratings sagging, raising stakes for Republicans trying to hold the Senate.

Vice President JD Vance held a midterm campaign rally in Tyler, Texas, on behalf of Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, who faces Democratic state Representative James Talarico in the general election. During the event, Vance announced a Trump administration partnership with Delek Refining to expand its Tyler facility, framing it as a boost to energy supply, jobs, and transportation costs.

Vance used the rally to highlight Paxton's record as attorney general, including lawsuits against the Biden administration, actions against pharmaceutical companies over drug safety claims, border enforcement efforts, and his role in ending transgender medical treatments for minors at a major Texas hospital. He also attacked Talarico over past comments on gender, race, policing, and diet, portraying him as out of step with Texas voters and aligned with progressive Democrats in Congress.

The race is one of several competitive Senate contests shaping up ahead of the midterms, with both parties working to energize their bases in a state Republicans have long controlled but Democrats see as increasingly competitive.

Several top Texas Republicans running statewide in 2025 have declined to debate their Democratic challengers ahead of the general election. Attorney General Ken Paxton, facing state Rep. James Talarico in the U.S. Senate race, has repeatedly deflected debate offers, including proposals to appear on Fox News. Gov. Greg Abbott, who debated opponents in his three prior general elections, has not agreed to face state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, citing campaign travel instead. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has similarly avoided debating state Rep. Vikki Goodwin. The trend extends beyond Texas: The Washington Post found fewer than half of U.S. Senate races this cycle include debates, and in Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs is again skipping debates with her opponent.

President Trump held a campaign rally at the Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio, Texas, aimed at boosting Republican candidates ahead of the midterms and bolstering Attorney General Ken Paxton's bid for U.S. Senate. Trump touted his economic and border enforcement record, criticized Democratic opponents, and set aside recent party friction to praise Paxton as a reliable ally, urging a strong GOP turnout at the polls.

The speech was repeatedly interrupted by left-wing protesters, whom Trump dismissed as paid agitators backed by foreign entities. He also mocked Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico and sharply criticized Representative Henry Cuellar, calling him "disloyal" for not switching parties after receiving a presidential pardon on federal bribery and money laundering charges. Trump urged Texas voters to defeat Cuellar in the midterms. The rally underscored Texas's significance as a Republican battleground heading into the midterm elections.

Retiring Sen. John Cornyn has drawn criticism for publicly disparaging fellow Republican Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general who defeated him in the GOP primary runoff, calling Paxton's campaign lazy and poorly funded. The remarks have raised concern among Republicans about maintaining the Texas Senate seat against Democratic nominee James Talarico, a state representative whose progressive positions on gender, abortion and systemic inequality have made him a target for conservative critics.

Talarico has significantly outraised Paxton in campaign funding, drawing comparisons to Beto O'Rourke's costly but unsuccessful 2018 Senate bid against Ted Cruz. Recent polling has shown the race closer than expected for a reliably red state, with Talarico holding a narrow edge. Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since the 1990s. The contest is being watched closely as a factor in which party controls the Senate for the remainder of President Trump's term, with critics urging Cornyn to redirect his criticism toward Talarico and support Paxton's campaign.

Sen. Ted Cruz said Monday the Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico could cost as much as $200 million, calling it "a real fight" despite predicting a GOP win. Paxton, the state attorney general, won a costly May runoff over Sen. John Cornyn after President Trump's endorsement, ending Cornyn's Senate tenure. Cruz said he would campaign and use his super PAC to help Paxton unify the party after the bruising primary.

Talarico, a state representative and progressive Christian, won the Democratic primary outright over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, but recent polling shows a tight race, prompting the Cook Political Report to shift its rating from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up." With Republicans holding 53 Senate seats, an unexpectedly competitive Texas contest could draw national GOP resources away from other battlegrounds and factor into the fight for Senate control.