How Many Texas House Seats Will Democrats Win in 2026

Three seats on Texas's new 15th Court of Appeals are up for election in November, marking the first time voters will weigh in since Gov. Greg Abbott appointed the court's inaugural members in 2024. Created by the Legislature in 2023, the court handles civil cases involving the state, challenges to state laws' constitutionality, and business-court appeals before they reach the Texas Supreme Court. Winners will serve six-year terms.

Primaries were uncontested, leaving one Republican incumbent facing one Democrat in each race: Chief Justice Scott Brister vs. Jerry Zimmerer, Place 2's Scott Field vs. Tom Baker, and Place 3's April Farris vs. Marc Meyer. All three incumbents hold substantial fundraising leads, backed heavily by Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC and other business and legal interests. Since taking the bench, the Republican-majority court has ruled on marijuana policy, abortion, and campaign finance, at times drawing criticism from Attorney General Ken Paxton. The outcomes will shape the ideological direction of a court with broad authority over state-related litigation.

Texas voters will decide in November whether to keep the three Republican justices currently sitting on the state's 15th Court of Appeals, a court created by the Legislature in 2023 to hear civil appeals involving the state, challenges to state laws' constitutionality, and business court cases. Gov. Greg Abbott appointed all three justices in 2024, and this is their first time facing voters; a win secures a six-year term. All primaries were uncontested, with one Republican and one Democrat per race advancing to the general election.

The Republican incumbents — a chief justice and two associate justices — are being challenged by three Democrats with appellate and judicial backgrounds. In their first year and a half on the bench, the current justices have ruled on marijuana policy, abortion policy, and campaign finance disputes, at times drawing criticism from Attorney General Ken Paxton. Because the court reviews nearly all major civil cases involving the state before they reach the Texas Supreme Court, its composition carries significant weight for pending and future litigation over state policy.

Texas' open U.S. Senate race has narrowed to a close contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, with Libertarian Ted Brown also on the ballot. The seat is being vacated by John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton. Polls show the race within the margin of error, giving Talarico a slight edge as Democrats seek their first statewide Texas win since 1994.

Paxton, attorney general since 2015 and a longtime conservative legal combatant against federal policy, has backing from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Senate GOP leadership but did not respond to candidate questionnaires. Talarico, serving his fourth House term, has set state fundraising records and drawn endorsements from labor and civil rights groups. Brown, a longtime Libertarian activist, rounds out the field.

Early voting runs Oct. 19 through Oct. 30, with Election Day on Nov. 3. The Senate race shares the ballot with Texas' gubernatorial contest between Gov. Greg Abbott and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. With the Senate split 53-47 in Republicans' favor, a Democratic upset in Texas would ease their path toward a majority, making the race a closely watched national bellwether.

Texas voters go to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, to decide a slate of federal, state and local races. The ballot includes contests for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House, statewide executive and judicial offices, the Texas Legislature, and county-level positions such as county judge, sheriff, district attorney and various court seats. Depending on location, voters may also weigh in on local bond measures, tax proposals and charter amendments.

Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., with early voting running Oct. 19 through Oct. 30. Results across these races will shape prediction markets tracking Senate control and statewide leadership in Texas.

U.S. District Judge David Hittner has once again ruled that Texas Senate Bill 12, which restricts drag performances, violates the First Amendment. This is the second time Hittner has struck down the law, first declaring it unconstitutional in September 2023 before the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals unblocked it in November and sent the case back to him with instructions for reassessment. The law had briefly taken effect in March following the appellate ruling.

In his reaffirmed ruling, Hittner said the appeals court's decision "did not disturb" his original findings and that the law is "overly broad," potentially sweeping in protected activities like cosplay, competitive swimming attire, and celebrity impersonation acts. He noted Gov. Greg Abbott had publicly described SB 12 as a "drag ban," undercutting claims that it targets child safety rather than cross-dressing itself. After the appellate ruling, the two pride-group plaintiffs were dropped, leaving Attorney General Ken Paxton as sole defendant; Hittner also denied Paxton's request for a supplemental trial. Drag queen and plaintiff Brigitte Bandit called the law an attempt to censor LGBTQ+ artists. The ruling again blocks enforcement, though further appeals remain likely.

Texas heads into its Nov. 3, 2026 election with several races drawing unusually close national attention. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is running competitively against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, a race polling shows within margin of error — the closest Texas Senate contest since Democrats last held the seat in 1993. Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, holds a smaller-than-usual lead over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who would be the state's first Democratic governor in over 30 years and first Latina governor if elected. Down-ballot races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and other statewide posts are also tighter than in recent cycles.

The election marks the first test of Texas's new congressional map, redrawn last year at President Trump's urging to net Republicans five additional U.S. House seats after Supreme Court approval. Ten open House seats add further uncertainty. Affordability, property taxes, and growing bipartisan backlash against data centers are emerging as major voter concerns statewide.

Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder says the party has erased its debt and built a $30 million coordinated campaign since he took over in March 2025, up from a $2 million effort under his predecessor. He credits a restructuring that moved staff out of Austin and into Dallas, Houston, Eagle Pass, and Amarillo, along with recruiting more than 1,000 precinct chairs, as key to preparing for competitive races ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2030 redistricting cycle.

Scudder also addressed the contested Senate primary won by State Representative James Talarico over U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, arguing Talarico now has a party infrastructure Beto O'Rourke lacked in his narrow 2018 loss. On data centers, he accused Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton of feigning opposition while Abbott's administration has committed roughly $1 billion in taxpayer incentives to the industry, calling their posture insincere and warning it could hurt Republican turnout in rural Texas, where the issue has become politically sensitive.

One year after Gov. Greg Abbott signed Texas's mid-decade "One Big Beautiful Map," redrawing five congressional districts at President Trump's urging, polling suggests Republicans may not be reaping the gains they expected. The redistricting combined Black-majority districts in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and paired two Austin Democrats, while shifting South Texas seats to favor the GOP, aiming for a net five-seat pickup for Republicans nationally.

Recent Texas Southern University polling shows Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leading in District 28 and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ahead in District 34, despite both districts being redrawn to favor Trump. In District 15, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz trails Tejano musician Bobby Pulido despite a district redrawn heavily in Trump's favor. District 35, created by merging two Austin Democratic incumbents' territory, remains a contested open seat where House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned for Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.

The shifting numbers, attributed partly to fallout from immigration enforcement, tariffs and inflation, complicate Republican hopes of using redistricting to offset historic midterm losses for the party controlling the White House.

Republican Eric Flores, challenging Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in Texas's 34th Congressional District, criticized the incumbent's record and positions in an appearance on Breitbart News Daily. Flores argued that post-redistricting changes have turned the once-Democratic-leaning seat into a competitive tossup now favoring Republicans slightly. He accused Gonzalez of being largely absent from Congress over his decade in office, passing little substantive legislation, and aligning with progressive positions on abortion and transgender issues that Flores says are out of step with south Texas voters. Flores framed Gonzalez's attempts to present himself as a moderate Democrat as inconsistent with his voting record, underscoring the race's significance as one of the nation's most closely watched House contests.

Polling and interviews across Texas point to a significant erosion of Latino support for President Trump since his 2024 gains, driven by frustration over high prices, gas costs, and aggressive ICE enforcement that has rattled South Texas communities and economies. Strategists describe the shift as a rebuke of Republicans rather than genuine enthusiasm for Democrats, who still carry a damaged brand with many Latino voters. The trend could shape Texas's competitive U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, as well as newly redrawn majority-Hispanic congressional districts. Analysts expect Latino support for Democrats to partially rebound toward 2018 levels, but caution that voters remain persuadable and increasingly judge candidates individually rather than by party.