Texas Senate Race Margin of Victory

Texas heads into its Nov. 3, 2026 election with several races drawing unusually close national attention. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is running competitively against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, a race polling shows within margin of error — the closest Texas Senate contest since Democrats last held the seat in 1993. Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, holds a smaller-than-usual lead over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who would be the state's first Democratic governor in over 30 years and first Latina governor if elected. Down-ballot races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and other statewide posts are also tighter than in recent cycles.

The election marks the first test of Texas's new congressional map, redrawn last year at President Trump's urging to net Republicans five additional U.S. House seats after Supreme Court approval. Ten open House seats add further uncertainty. Affordability, property taxes, and growing bipartisan backlash against data centers are emerging as major voter concerns statewide.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association are each sending $1 million to support Gina Hinojosa's challenge to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, according to The New York Times. The infusion is significant for Hinojosa, whose campaign had only about $4 million on hand at the end of last month. The move follows pressure from prominent Latino Democrats, including Rep. Joaquin Castro, who pushed the DGA to treat the race as competitive.

Hinojosa's bid has been somewhat overshadowed by Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico, who has raised more than $70 million against Republican Ken Paxton and is seen as a national fundraising star. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and the governor's mansion has been held by Republicans since Ann Richards left office in 1995. Castro argued that winning the governor's race is the only way to stop Texas Republicans from attempting another congressional redistricting before 2028, telling the Times, "Gina is right there."

Early voting is underway in Texas's midterms through Oct. 30, ahead of the Nov. 3 general election. Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa, while in one of the most expensive nonpresidential races on record, Republican Ken Paxton battles Democrat James Talarico for U.S. Senate, with ad spending topping $442 million and Republicans outspending Democrats roughly three to one. Polls, including recent FOX News and New York Times/Siena surveys, have shown Talarico consistently ahead since September, raising the possibility Texas could elect a Democrat statewide for the first time since 1994. Trump made three campaign visits backing Paxton, who faces past fraud indictments and an impeachment acquittal. Prominent Texas attorney Thomas J. Henry, who had previously backed Paxton with a $600,000 super PAC donation, has now endorsed Talarico after meeting with him, a notable crossover in the closely watched contest.

The Texas U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has turned to recycled material from past campaigns, most notably a 2018 video showing Paxton pocketing a $1,000 Montblanc pen left behind at a Collin County courthouse security checkpoint. Paxton returned the pen once notified of the mix-up, and his campaign at the time called the episode a nonstory. The clip originally surfaced in an ad from Justin Nelson, Paxton's 2018 Democratic challenger, who narrowly lost that race.

Talarico's campaign has now revived the footage and its "won't steal your pen" tagline in a new ad, adding a fresh endorsement from Joe Joplin, the pen's original owner. The ad also follows renewed attention to Paxton's past securities fraud indictment, resolved without conviction, and his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, which ended in acquittal by the state Senate. The race is considered one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country this cycle.

With early voting set to begin Oct. 19 ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Texas candidates are ramping up outreach efforts statewide. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico launched an Austin canvassing effort over the weekend, his first public campaign event since Sept. 30 when he disclosed he had the flu. He also made a surprise appearance at the Austin City Limits music festival the day before. Talarico did not address his absence publicly or take questions from reporters.

Republican nominee and Attorney General Ken Paxton used the gap to highlight his own continued travel across Texas, including stops at the TX Youth Summit and Moms for Liberty Summit, and his campaign launched a mocking "Tala-Freak-Out" tip line referencing Talarico's whereabouts.

Down-ballot races are also heating up: in Travis County's Texas House District 47, Democrat Pooja Sethi and Republican Jennifer Mushtaler are both intensifying door-to-door canvassing, citing voter concerns over affordability, education, and gas prices as early voting approaches.

Billboard-famous Texas personal injury attorney Thomas J. Henry has endorsed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for U.S. Senate, a reversal after he backed Republican Ken Paxton in the May primary and donated over $646,000 to a pro-Paxton PAC. Henry said meeting Talarico in person convinced him of his "balanced, straightforward and honest" approach, while mounting scandals around Paxton changed his view. Henry joins other notable Paxton-adjacent figures shifting support, including attorney Dan Cogdell, who once defended Paxton, and Neil Bush, brother of George W. Bush. The endorsements add to a competitive, closely watched Texas Senate race between Paxton and Talarico ahead of Election Day.

President Donald Trump traveled to San Antonio to rally support for Ken Paxton's U.S. Senate campaign, his third Texas trip in under a month, amid polling showing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico within striking distance of becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas in more than three decades. Trump warned the crowd Texans would "never forgive" the state if Talarico won, using derogatory nicknames and repeating a false claim that Talarico is vegan.

The speech leaned heavily on cultural and immigration messaging, with Trump linking a potential Democratic win to border security fears and falsely claiming Democrats would eliminate oil and gas jobs. He also touted a planned firing-squad execution of a Fort Hood attacker and repeated promises of $5,000 payments to Americans and one-time Medicare payments to seniors. Gov. Greg Abbott, also on the ballot, was notably absent. The rally comes as national polls show Democrats favored to retake Congress and Trump's approval ratings sagging, raising stakes for Republicans trying to hold the Senate.

More than 6.4 million Texans cast ballots during early voting, surpassing the state's previous non-presidential-year record of 5.5 million set in 2018. The figures exclude mail-in ballots. Analysts point to the closely watched Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, now the most expensive Senate contest in history with over $560 million in combined ad spending, as the main driver of turnout. The governor's race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, plus growth in suburban counties like Collin County, also contributed. Some experts project total turnout could reach 10 million votes, which would break the state's all-time midterm record.

Election Day voting runs Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Vice President JD Vance held a midterm campaign rally in Tyler, Texas, on behalf of Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, who faces Democratic state Representative James Talarico in the general election. During the event, Vance announced a Trump administration partnership with Delek Refining to expand its Tyler facility, framing it as a boost to energy supply, jobs, and transportation costs.

Vance used the rally to highlight Paxton's record as attorney general, including lawsuits against the Biden administration, actions against pharmaceutical companies over drug safety claims, border enforcement efforts, and his role in ending transgender medical treatments for minors at a major Texas hospital. He also attacked Talarico over past comments on gender, race, policing, and diet, portraying him as out of step with Texas voters and aligned with progressive Democrats in Congress.

The race is one of several competitive Senate contests shaping up ahead of the midterms, with both parties working to energize their bases in a state Republicans have long controlled but Democrats see as increasingly competitive.