Texas Governor and Senate 2026: Combined Party Outcome

Early voting is underway in Texas's midterms through Oct. 30, ahead of the Nov. 3 general election. Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa, while in one of the most expensive nonpresidential races on record, Republican Ken Paxton battles Democrat James Talarico for U.S. Senate, with ad spending topping $442 million and Republicans outspending Democrats roughly three to one. Polls, including recent FOX News and New York Times/Siena surveys, have shown Talarico consistently ahead since September, raising the possibility Texas could elect a Democrat statewide for the first time since 1994. Trump made three campaign visits backing Paxton, who faces past fraud indictments and an impeachment acquittal. Prominent Texas attorney Thomas J. Henry, who had previously backed Paxton with a $600,000 super PAC donation, has now endorsed Talarico after meeting with him, a notable crossover in the closely watched contest.

Texas heads into its Nov. 3, 2026 election with several races drawing unusually close national attention. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is running competitively against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, a race polling shows within margin of error — the closest Texas Senate contest since Democrats last held the seat in 1993. Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, holds a smaller-than-usual lead over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who would be the state's first Democratic governor in over 30 years and first Latina governor if elected. Down-ballot races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and other statewide posts are also tighter than in recent cycles.

The election marks the first test of Texas's new congressional map, redrawn last year at President Trump's urging to net Republicans five additional U.S. House seats after Supreme Court approval. Ten open House seats add further uncertainty. Affordability, property taxes, and growing bipartisan backlash against data centers are emerging as major voter concerns statewide.

Texas state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee challenging Gov. Greg Abbott, filed suit in Travis County seeking full access to emails between Abbott's office and Elon Musk. Abbott had previously released over 1,300 pages to a records request, but nearly all were redacted after his office cited exemptions including "intimate and embarrassing" content. Hinojosa, invoking a Texas law letting legislators inspect confidential records, argues Abbott is violating a mandatory legal duty; she has offered to keep the material confidential. Abbott's office calls the suit "baseless" and politically motivated. The dispute cites Musk's roughly $366 million in Republican election spending, including $500,000 to Abbott's campaign, as the November 3 election nears.

Texas heads into a Nov. 3 election featuring high-profile statewide races, including Gov. Greg Abbott's contest against Democrat Gina Hinojosa and a U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Additional battles for congressional and state legislature seats are also on the ballot.

Voters interviewed at the State Fair of Texas in Dallas offered mixed predictions about the state's political trajectory. Many expressed confidence Texas will remain reliably Republican, while others, pointing to shifts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, suggested the state could be inching toward competitive territory. Several voters said economic concerns, particularly persistent inflation and reduced disposable income, are shaping their views more than party allegiance. Some cited dissatisfaction with the current presidential administration as a driving factor in their outlook.

The races are being watched closely as indicators of whether traditionally red Texas is becoming more competitive, with economic sentiment likely to play a significant role in turnout and outcomes across the state's marquee contests.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association are each sending $1 million to support Gina Hinojosa's challenge to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, according to The New York Times. The infusion is significant for Hinojosa, whose campaign had only about $4 million on hand at the end of last month. The move follows pressure from prominent Latino Democrats, including Rep. Joaquin Castro, who pushed the DGA to treat the race as competitive.

Hinojosa's bid has been somewhat overshadowed by Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico, who has raised more than $70 million against Republican Ken Paxton and is seen as a national fundraising star. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and the governor's mansion has been held by Republicans since Ann Richards left office in 1995. Castro argued that winning the governor's race is the only way to stop Texas Republicans from attempting another congressional redistricting before 2028, telling the Times, "Gina is right there."

Several top Texas Republicans running statewide in 2025 have declined to debate their Democratic challengers ahead of the general election. Attorney General Ken Paxton, facing state Rep. James Talarico in the U.S. Senate race, has repeatedly deflected debate offers, including proposals to appear on Fox News. Gov. Greg Abbott, who debated opponents in his three prior general elections, has not agreed to face state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, citing campaign travel instead. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has similarly avoided debating state Rep. Vikki Goodwin. The trend extends beyond Texas: The Washington Post found fewer than half of U.S. Senate races this cycle include debates, and in Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs is again skipping debates with her opponent.

Polls show Texas Gov. Greg Abbott facing an unusually close re-election fight against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, a sharp contrast to his more than 10-point win four years ago. Most surveys give Abbott a small single-digit lead, including a Fox News poll showing him roughly five points ahead, but a New York Times/Siena poll found Hinojosa leading 49% to 46%. Analysts attribute the tightening largely to dissatisfaction with President Trump, whose national approval has slipped, along with concerns over cost of living and gas prices eroding his support in Texas.

National Democrats are now investing in the race: Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association each pledged $1 million to Hinojosa's campaign, which had lagged in fundraising compared with Abbott's $18 million war chest and Senate candidate James Talarico's $70 million haul. Talarico also leads Republican Ken Paxton in several Senate polls. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since 1994, and turnout remains the key variable: strong Republican mobilization likely secures Abbott's win, but low turnout could open the door for an upset.

Texas voters head to the polls with Republicans defending longtime dominance amid Democratic hopes fueled by opposition to President Trump. The marquee race pits Democratic state Rep. James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, with control implications for Trump's final two years. Gov. Greg Abbott faces an unexpectedly close challenge from state Rep. Gina Hinojosa despite a fundraising edge. Down-ballot, polling shows tight margins for lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and a Railroad Commission seat. Democrats must flip 14 Texas House seats and four Senate seats for majorities. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. Early voting runs through October 30.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll of 1,200 registered Texas voters, conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 5, shows several statewide races within the margin of error ahead of Election Day. Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton 50%-47% in the U.S. Senate race. In the governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa led Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 49%-48%. Democrat Vikki Goodwin led Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 49%-46%, and Democrats also held narrow leads in the attorney general and railroad commissioner races, while Republican Don Huffines narrowly led in the comptroller contest.

Inflation and the economy remained voters' top concerns, cited by 21% as Texas's biggest problem, ahead of political corruption/leadership (15%) and the economy generally (10%). President Trump's favorability in Texas stood at 42% favorable versus 50% unfavorable. Abbott's job approval was 44% approve/45% disapprove; Paxton stood at 35%/46%; Patrick at 33%/39%. All results carry margins of error of roughly 2.8-3.3 percentage points.

Texas' open U.S. Senate race has narrowed to a close contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, with Libertarian Ted Brown also on the ballot. The seat is being vacated by John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton. Polls show the race within the margin of error, giving Talarico a slight edge as Democrats seek their first statewide Texas win since 1994.

Paxton, attorney general since 2015 and a longtime conservative legal combatant against federal policy, has backing from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Senate GOP leadership but did not respond to candidate questionnaires. Talarico, serving his fourth House term, has set state fundraising records and drawn endorsements from labor and civil rights groups. Brown, a longtime Libertarian activist, rounds out the field.

Early voting runs Oct. 19 through Oct. 30, with Election Day on Nov. 3. The Senate race shares the ballot with Texas' gubernatorial contest between Gov. Greg Abbott and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. With the Senate split 53-47 in Republicans' favor, a Democratic upset in Texas would ease their path toward a majority, making the race a closely watched national bellwether.