Tennessee Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold
Tennessee voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026, to elect a U.S. senator. Beyond the candidates and results, a key variable is how many Tennesseans actually cast ballots. Turnout in midterm Senate races varies widely depending on competitiveness, campaign intensity, and national political mood.
Why Markets Are Watching
Turnout shapes who wins elections and how representative the outcome feels. Low turnout can amplify the influence of highly motivated partisans, while high turnout often signals broader civic engagement or backlash politics. Tennessee’s turnout figure will also serve as a data point for assessing midterm enthusiasm nationally.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Turnout Question
These contracts isolate a single measurable threshold: whether total votes cast will exceed specific numerical benchmarks, ranging from 1.6 million to 3.6 million. Rather than asking who wins, the question reduces turnout to a quantifiable forecasting exercise. Traders are effectively weighing historical turnout patterns, early voting data, and campaign momentum against each defined line.
Related terms
Total Volume
$4k
Kalshi $1.6k · Polymarket $2.4k
Leading Market
Above 1.8M
Polymarket 97%
Above 1.8M Volume
$0.32
Polymarket $0.32
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.8M | — | — | — | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Above 1.8M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Above 1.6M | — | — | — | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Above 1.6M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Above 1.60M | 99.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Above 1.60M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Above 2M | — | — | — | 73.0¢ | 5% | , trade Above 2M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Above 1.80M | 95.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Above 1.80M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.8M | $0.32 | No market | |
| Above 1.6M | $0.21 | No market | |
| Above 1.60M | $207.43 | No market | |
| Above 2M | $0.11 | No market | |
| Above 1.80M | $270.40 | No market |