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Elections

Tennessee Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

  • Kalshi(opens in a new tab)
  • Polymarket(opens in a new tab)
  • 18 Markets
Watch

Tennessee voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026, to elect a U.S. senator. Beyond the candidates and results, a key variable is how many Tennesseans actually cast ballots. Turnout in midterm Senate races varies widely depending on competitiveness, campaign intensity, and national political mood.

Why Markets Are Watching

Turnout shapes who wins elections and how representative the outcome feels. Low turnout can amplify the influence of highly motivated partisans, while high turnout often signals broader civic engagement or backlash politics. Tennessee’s turnout figure will also serve as a data point for assessing midterm enthusiasm nationally.

How Prediction Markets Frame the Turnout Question

These contracts isolate a single measurable threshold: whether total votes cast will exceed specific numerical benchmarks, ranging from 1.6 million to 3.6 million. Rather than asking who wins, the question reduces turnout to a quantifiable forecasting exercise. Traders are effectively weighing historical turnout patterns, early voting data, and campaign momentum against each defined line.

Related terms

  • United States Senate
  • General election
  • Election Day (United States)
  • Early voting
  • Tennessee
  • Voter turnout
  • United States midterm election
  • Civic engagement

Total Volume

$4k

Kalshi $1.6k · Polymarket $2.4k

Leading Market

Above 1.8M

Polymarket 97%

Above 1.8M Volume

$0.32

Polymarket $0.32

latest coverage price history calculate your return market table related events
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Calculate Your Potential Return

$
  • Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
  • Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
Market Kalshi Yes Kalshi Fee Kalshi Payout Polymarket Yes Polymarket Fee Polymarket Payout
Above 1.8M — — — 98.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 1.8M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket
Above 1.6M — — — 99.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 1.6M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket
Above 1.60M 99.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 1.60M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
— — —
Above 2M — — — 73.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 2M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket
Above 1.80M 95.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 1.80M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
— — —

* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.

All Markets

Market Total Volume Kalshi(opens in a new tab) Polymarket(opens in a new tab)
Above 1.8M $0.32 —No market
97.0%
Yes: 98¢ Vol: $0.32
, trade Above 1.8M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 1.6M $0.21 —No market
96.0%
Yes: 99¢ Vol: $0.21
, trade Above 1.6M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 1.60M $207.43
87.0%
Yes: 99¢ Vol: $207.43
, trade Above 1.60M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 2M $0.11 —No market
72.5%
Yes: 73¢ Vol: $0.11
, trade Above 2M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 1.80M $270.40
72.0%
Yes: 95¢ Vol: $270.40
, trade Above 1.80M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 2.00M $278.00
64.0%
Yes: 75¢ Vol: $278.00
, trade Above 2.00M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 2.20M $101.71
41.0%
Yes: 48¢ Vol: $101.71
, trade Above 2.20M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 2.2M $278.27 —No market
31.5%
Yes: 32¢ Vol: $278.27
, trade Above 2.2M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 2.4M $471.17 —No market
29.5%
Yes: 30¢ Vol: $471.17
, trade Above 2.4M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 2.40M $285.66
24.0%
Yes: 24¢ Vol: $285.66
, trade Above 2.40M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 2.80M $9.40
10.0%
Yes: 8¢ Vol: $9.40
, trade Above 2.80M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 3.00M $13.28
7.0%
Yes: 6¢ Vol: $13.28
, trade Above 3.00M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 2.60M $409.11
6.0%
Yes: 14.0¢ Vol: $409.11
, trade Above 2.60M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 3.60M $1.00
5.0%
Yes: 6¢ Vol: $1.00
, trade Above 3.60M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 2.6M $1,687.97 —No market
2.5%
Yes: 4¢ Vol: $1.7k
, trade Above 2.6M on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 3.20M $0.00
0.0%
Yes: 6¢ —
, trade Above 3.20M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 3.30M $0.00
0.0%
Yes: 6¢ —
, trade Above 3.30M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 3.50M $0.00
0.0%
Yes: 6¢ —
, trade Above 3.50M on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market

Emerging News

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Early voting begins in Grand Rapids ahead of Nov. 3 election

PN Team • 1 week ago

Early in-person voting opened in Grand Rapids, Michigan, giving residents 13 days to cast ballots before the Nov. 3 general election—beyond the nine days required by state law. Voters can cast ballots at any of four sites—St. Peter and Paul School, GRPS University, Ottawa Hills High School, and New Hope Baptist Church—rather than being limited to a home precinct, as on Election Day. The city is also offering live wait-time tracking online. City Clerk Joel Hondorp said absentee voting remains the most popular early option, and voters can bring absentee ballots to any early voting site or their precinct to run through the tabulator in person. The early voting window closes the Sunday before Election Day.

Sources:

  • mlive
  • WLOS
  • WATE 6 On Your Side
  • WOODTV.com

Sentiment

  • Michigan Michigan is mentioned factually as the state where Grand Rapids is located and whose law sets voting requirements.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Shelby County voters face redrawn congressional map ahead of Tennessee midterms

PN Team • 2 months ago

Shelby County, Tennessee's largest voting jurisdiction with more than 582,000 registered voters, heads into the November midterms under a new congressional map after the Republican-led legislature redrew districts in May, splitting the state's only Democratic-held seat, centered on majority-Black Memphis, into three districts: 9, 8, and 5. Republicans currently hold eight of Tennessee's nine congressional seats and hope redistricting helps them sweep all three Shelby County races. Early voting begins October 14.

District 9 pits Republican Brent Taylor against Democrat Justin Pearson, alongside independents. District 8 features Republican incumbent David Kustoff against Democrat Heidi Kuhn and several independents, while District 5 has Republican Charlie Hatcher facing Democrat Chaz Molder. Local political observers view District 5 as potentially the most competitive race, while some believe Pearson has a viable shot in District 9. Election officials say they've added review processes after a ballot error affected roughly 700 absentee voters in July, and expect the redistricting fight could drive higher turnout among voters upset by the changes.

Sources:

  • News Channel 3 WREG-TV Memphis

Sentiment

  • Republican Party (United States) Republicans are depicted as the dominant party pursuing favorable redistricting to expand their control, a politically advantageous position.
  • Democratic Party (United States) The article notes Democrats hold only one seat and that redistricting split their sole stronghold, portraying the party as politically weakened in the state.
  • Memphis, Tennessee Memphis is described as the majority-Black city whose Democratic district was split, a neutral factual detail tied to the redistricting controversy.
  • Independent politician Independent candidates are mentioned as running in the races without further characterization.
  • Tennessee Tennessee is mentioned factually as the state context for the redistricting and midterm elections.
  • United States House of Representatives The U.S. House is referenced only contextually as the body these congressional seats belong to.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Middle Tennessee early voting surges ahead of 2022 pace

PN Team • 2 weeks ago

Early voting in several Middle Tennessee counties is running well above 2022 levels, with Davidson County seeing the sharpest jump and Wilson County also up significantly, according to election officials. Davidson County's administrator of elections said part of the surge reflects population growth rather than a pure turnout comparison, but data suggests a larger share of registered voters could cast ballots early than in past cycles. A Vanderbilt University political science professor noted the numbers may signal stronger Democratic enthusiasm this cycle, though he cautioned that polling could be underestimating either party's support. Early voting continues through Oct. 29, with Election Day set for Nov. 3.

Sources:

  • WKRN News 2

Sentiment

  • Democratic Party (United States) The article notes a professor's observation that early voting data may signal stronger Democratic enthusiasm this cycle.
  • Tennessee Tennessee is mentioned as the broader context for the early voting trend without specific reputational framing.

Related Events

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Blackburn faces debate-avoidance criticism, “fatigue” narrative in Tennessee governor’s race

PN Team • 1 week ago

Sen. Marsha Blackburn, the Republican front-runner for Tennessee governor, has declined to debate or appear on stage with challengers, including Democratic nominee Jerri Green, and has largely avoided detailed press interviews ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Early voting is underway. Critics, including some traditional Republicans, describe growing "Blackburn fatigue," citing her reliance on front-runner status, close alignment with President Trump, and a reserved campaign style. Her August primary turnout of roughly 311,392 votes was down slightly from 2018. Green has cited polling showing a close race. Blackburn's campaign has answered written questionnaires but has not engaged directly with reporters or opponents on policy specifics.

Sources:

  • The Tennessean

Sentiment

  • Marsha Blackburn The article centers on criticism of Blackburn for avoiding debates, press, and direct engagement with opponents.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as Jerri Green's party affiliation without further elaboration.
  • Donald Trump Trump is mentioned as context for Blackburn's close alignment, used to critique her independence.
  • Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as Blackburn's party amid criticism from some traditional Republicans.
  • Tennessee Tennessee is the factual setting of the governor's race described in the article.
  • United States Senate Blackburn's Senate seat is referenced factually as her current position.

Related Events

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Positive sentiment

Elections

Trump rallies in Clarksville as midterm battle for Congress intensifies

PN Team • 3 weeks ago

President Donald Trump traveled to Clarksville, Tennessee, Saturday to rally Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections, speaking at F&M Bank Arena four days before the state's early voting begins Oct. 14. The Republican National Committee framed the event as part of a broader push to help the GOP maintain its congressional majorities.

Analysts note the visit comes as several Senate races once considered safely Republican—including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska—have become more competitive, even as Tennessee and Kentucky remain considered solidly in Trump's column. ABC News political director Rick Klein said voter frustration tied to the economy, gas and diesel prices, tariffs, and foreign policy issues like the Iran war could shape outcomes, giving voters a chance to judge two years of unified Republican control in Washington.

Local authorities warned of traffic disruptions, road closures, and limited parking near the arena. Tennessee's early voting runs through Oct. 29, with Election Day set for Nov. 3.

Sources:

  • WKRN News 2

Sentiment

  • Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as actively campaigning and rallying support, a mildly favorable political engagement depiction.
  • Tennessee Tennessee is portrayed as solidly Republican and host to the rally, a mildly favorable mention.
  • Kentucky Kentucky is described as remaining solidly Republican, a mildly favorable political stability note.
  • Alaska Alaska is mentioned as a Senate race that has become more competitive, a neutral factual note.
  • Iowa Iowa is cited as an increasingly competitive Senate race, a neutral political fact.
  • Kansas Kansas is cited as an increasingly competitive Senate race, a neutral political fact.
  • Nebraska Nebraska is cited as an increasingly competitive Senate race, a neutral political fact.
  • Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is discussed neutrally in context of midterm election dynamics and competitive races.
  • United States Senate The Senate is referenced factually with competitive races noted, a neutral political update.
  • United States Congress Congress is mentioned factually regarding the midterm battle for its control.

Related Events

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Tennessee Early Voting Surges Ahead of Midterms

PN Team • 3 hours ago

Tennessee's early voting period ended with 1,280,642 early and absentee ballots cast statewide, up about 45% from 2022 but roughly 7% below 2018, according to the Secretary of State. An open governor's race, newly redrawn congressional districts, and several seats without incumbents are seen as key drivers. Shelby County led the state with 183,896 voters, while Davidson County saw a 57% jump from 2022. Republicans redrew Memphis and Nashville's districts this year, dismantling the state's lone majority-Black district, prompting national Democratic investment in two contested races. Election Day polls open Tuesday, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Sources:

  • Axios

Sentiment

  • Republican Party (United States) Portrayed as redrawing districts to dismantle the state's lone majority-Black district, a critical framing.
  • Memphis, Tennessee Named as a city whose district was redrawn in a way criticized as reducing Black representation.
  • Tennessee Described factually as experiencing a surge in early voting turnout statewide.
  • Nashville, Tennessee Named alongside Memphis in the controversial redistricting effort.
  • United States Congress Mentioned only as context for newly redrawn congressional districts.

Related Events

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Knoxville Voters to Decide on City Council Election Rule Change

PN Team • 4 days ago

Knoxville, Tennessee voters will consider a city charter amendment allowing city council candidates to win outright in the primary with a majority of votes, eliminating the need for a runoff. The system already applies to mayoral and municipal judge races. Currently, even two-candidate races proceed to a regular election, and three-or-more candidate fields can trigger runoffs. The City Council approved placing the measure on the ballot in August, with members Doug Lloyd and Amelia Parker dissenting. Supporters say it would cut costs and improve efficiency. If approved, the change takes effect for the August 2027 primary, affecting three at-large council seats and District 5.

Sources:

  • WATE 6 On Your Side

Sentiment

  • Knoxville, Tennessee Factual report on a ballot measure affecting city council election rules, with no praise or blame attached to the city.

Related Events

Related Events

Positive sentiment

Elections

Trump to hold midterm rally in Clarksville, Tennessee

PN Team • 3 weeks ago

President Donald Trump is set to headline a midterm rally Saturday at F&M Bank Arena in Clarksville, Tennessee, a venue that holds up to 6,000 people. City streets began closing Friday ahead of the event, and law enforcement has warned attendees to expect delays and road closures downtown.

The rally comes as early voting opens the following Wednesday, with Republicans hoping Trump's appearance energizes turnout for the midterms and the state's governor's race. Local GOP figures, including the Montgomery County Young Republicans, say they are counting on the visit to boost enthusiasm. But reaction in the community is mixed: some residents and Democratic organizers point to recent local shifts, including a flipped county commission and new Democratic school board members, as signs of changing political sentiment in the county. Supporters and critics alike are expected to turn out as the rally underscores the stakes both parties see in Tennessee's upcoming elections.

Sources:

  • WKRN News 2

Sentiment

  • Donald Trump Trump is depicted as a draw for a major rally meant to energize his party's turnout.
  • Republican Party (United States) Republicans are portrayed as hopeful and energized by the rally, a mildly favorable framing.
  • Law enforcement Law enforcement is mentioned factually regarding road closures and crowd management.
  • Tennessee Tennessee is mentioned factually as the state holding upcoming elections and the rally.

Related Events

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Tennessee Governor Race: Independent Candidate Lauren Pinkston

PN Team • 1 day ago

Lauren Pinkston, an independent candidate for Tennessee governor, is a former teacher and college professor who has also worked as an anti-human trafficking advocate. She is one of 15 candidates on the ballot and among the four candidates polling has identified as leading contenders, alongside independent David Hatley, Republican Marsha Blackburn, and Democrat Jerri Green.

Pinkston's platform centers on affordability and bipartisanship, including eliminating the state's grocery tax, offset by a proposed medical marijuana program, modernizing the power grid, expanding childcare, and easing home loan access. She supports gun rights alongside school safety measures, favors stricter enforcement against employers exploiting undocumented workers, and backs infrastructure impact fees on new development. Election Day is November 3.

Sources:

  • WKRN News 2

Sentiment

  • Independent politician Referenced as the political status of two leading candidates, Pinkston and Hatley, in a neutral context.
  • Marsha Blackburn Named as a leading candidate alongside others with no evaluative commentary.
  • Tennessee Setting for the gubernatorial race described factually and neutrally.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned factually as Jerri Green's party affiliation without evaluative content.
  • Republican Party (United States) Mentioned factually as Marsha Blackburn's party affiliation without evaluative content.

Related Events

Related Events

Positive sentiment

Elections

Marsha Blackburn Outlines Platform in Tennessee Governor’s Race

PN Team • 2 days ago

Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is one of 15 candidates running for Tennessee governor, and among the top four per polling, alongside David Hatley, Jerri Green, and Lauren Pinkston. Blackburn's platform centers on economic development, public safety, education, and cutting government spending, including support for a "Tennessee DOGE" effort to reduce the budget, though she has not committed to eliminating the state's grocery sales tax.

She backs expanding school vouchers statewide, leaving data center siting decisions to local governments, and supports capital punishment, including reinstating the electric chair. Blackburn has declined debate invitations from opponents, instead emphasizing door-to-door campaigning. A Senate ethics inquiry into her office was resolved, she said, without findings of misconduct. Democratic rival Jerri Green, by contrast, has centered her campaign on affordability, eliminating the grocery tax, and expanding health care access.

Sources:

  • WKRN News 2

Sentiment

  • Marsha Blackburn Describes her platform and candidacy factually, noting a resolved ethics inquiry and declined debates, mixing neutral and slightly cautious framing.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of rival candidate Jerri Green without additional characterization.
  • Local government Referenced neutrally as the body Blackburn would leave data center siting decisions to.
  • Republican Party (United States) Identified as Blackburn's party affiliation without further commentary.
  • Tennessee Setting of the gubernatorial race, mentioned factually without reputational framing.

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Leading:

95.5%

Above 500K

Vol $462.00

Maine Senate Election: How Many Will Vote

Leading:

90%

Above 600K

Vol $0.00

Georgia Senate Election: Will Voter Turnout Hit Key Thresholds?

Leading:

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Above 3.30M

Vol $100.00

Delaware Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

Leading:

95%

Above 280K

Vol $1.00

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Leading:

98.5%

Above 7M

Vol $216.92

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Leading:

98.5%

Above 3M

Vol $0.23

Idaho Senate Election: Voter Turnout

Leading:

98.5%

Above 560K

Vol $653.96

Tennessee’s 4th District House Race Winner

Leading:

97%

Scott DesJarlais

Vol $49.9k

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