Skip to content
  • Sign In
  • Sign Up
  • Dashboard
  • Elections
  • Politics
  • Sign In
  • Sign Up
  • Dashboard
the prediction network
  • Elections
  • Politics
Elections

Delaware Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

  • Kalshi(opens in a new tab)
  • Polymarket(opens in a new tab)
  • 20 Markets
Watch

Delaware voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026, to elect a U.S. senator, with turnout shaped by the state’s off-cycle midterm dynamics and whatever statewide contests share the ballot. As one of the smallest electorates in the country, Delaware’s total vote count can swing noticeably based on the competitiveness of the race and broader national engagement. Final turnout figures will be certified by state election officials after polls close.

Why Markets Are Watching

Turnout is a barometer of civic engagement and often signals how energized a state’s electorate is heading into a midterm cycle. Low or high participation can affect down-ballot races and shape narratives about enthusiasm for either party. Delaware’s results will also feed into broader comparisons of turnout trends across small and mid-sized states.

How Prediction Markets Frame the Turnout Threshold

These contracts reduce a statewide election into a single numeric question: will total votes cast clear specific thresholds, ranging from the low hundreds of thousands upward. Traders are effectively weighing historical turnout baselines against factors like race competitiveness, candidate name recognition, and national political mood. The structure isolates turnout as a standalone variable, separate from who ultimately wins the seat.

Related terms

  • United States Senate
  • Voter turnout
  • United States midterm election
  • Delaware
  • Civic engagement

Total Volume

$11.4k

Kalshi $4k · Polymarket $7.4k

Leading Market

Above 280K

Kalshi 95%

Above 280K Volume

$1.00

Kalshi $1.00

latest coverage price history calculate your return market table related events
Loading chart…

Calculate Your Potential Return

$
  • Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
  • Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
Market Kalshi Yes Kalshi Fee Kalshi Payout Polymarket Yes Polymarket Fee Polymarket Payout
Above 280K 97.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 280K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
— — —
Above 275K — — — 67.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 275K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket
Above 325K — — — 91.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 325K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket
Above 320K 78.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 320K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
— — —
Above 350K 59.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 350K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
61.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 350K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket

* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.

All Markets

Market Total Volume Kalshi(opens in a new tab) Polymarket(opens in a new tab)
Above 280K $1.00
95.0%
Yes: 97¢ Vol: $1.00
, trade Above 280K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 275K $263.04 —No market
95.0%
Yes: 67¢ Vol: $263.04
, trade Above 275K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 325K $2,324.19 —No market
82.0%
Yes: 91¢ Vol: $2.3k
, trade Above 325K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 320K $734.00
77.0%
Yes: 78¢ Vol: $734.00
, trade Above 320K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 350K $309.95
47.0%
Yes: 59¢ Vol: $4.86
, trade Above 350K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
60.5%
Yes: 61¢ Vol: $305.09
, trade Above 350K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 375K $0.00 —No market
51.0%
Yes: 99¢ —
, trade Above 375K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 380K $434.00
29.0%
Yes: 41¢ Vol: $434.00
, trade Above 380K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 400K $653.12 —No market
26.5%
Yes: 35¢ Vol: $653.12
, trade Above 400K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 410K $462.00
18.0%
Yes: 27¢ Vol: $462.00
, trade Above 410K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 425K $73.19 —No market
14.5%
Yes: 27¢ Vol: $73.19
, trade Above 425K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 440K $1,244.01
13.0%
Yes: 16¢ Vol: $1.2k
, trade Above 440K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 470K $481.83
10.0%
Yes: 11¢ Vol: $481.83
, trade Above 470K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 600K $1.00
9.0%
Yes: 6¢ Vol: $1.00
, trade Above 600K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 300K $359.85 —No market
9.0%
Yes: 67¢ Vol: $359.85
, trade Above 300K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 530K $100.00
8.0%
Yes: 7.0¢ Vol: $100.00
, trade Above 530K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 580K $199.00
7.0%
Yes: 6¢ Vol: $199.00
, trade Above 580K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 500K $339.26
5.0%
Yes: 8¢ Vol: $339.26
, trade Above 500K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 450K $2,332.70 —No market
5.0%
Yes: 8¢ Vol: $2.3k
, trade Above 450K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 475K $1,114.91 —No market
3.5%
Yes: 5¢ Vol: $1.1k
, trade Above 475K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 550K $0.00
0.0%
Yes: 6¢ —
, trade Above 550K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market

Emerging News

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Delaware general election set for November 3, 2026, with Senate and attorney general races in focus

PN Team • 1 week ago

Delaware voters head to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, with registration and absentee ballot deadlines already passed or approaching. Polls run 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and despite closed primaries, all registered voters may choose any candidate in the general election. Top races include U.S. Senate, where Democratic incumbent Chris Coons seeks reelection against Republican challenger Michael Katz, a physician and former Democratic state senator who later ran as an independent before switching parties. In the attorney general race, Democratic incumbent Kathy Jennings, in office since 2019, faces Republican challenger David Graham, a Delaware National Guard veteran and certified public accountant. Results will factor into national control of Congress.

Sources:

  • NBC10 Philadelphia

Sentiment

  • Chris Coons Portrayed neutrally as an incumbent seeking reelection with no controversy mentioned.
  • Delaware Central location of the election coverage, described factually.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned factually as the party of two incumbents running for reelection.
  • Republican Party (United States) Mentioned factually as the party fielding challengers in both races.
  • United States Congress Referenced neutrally as the body whose control depends on election results.
  • United States Senate Referenced as the office Chris Coons is seeking reelection to.

Related Events

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Delaware holds final state primary of 2026 midterm cycle

PN Team • 2 months ago

Delaware voters headed to the polls Tuesday in the last state primary before November, choosing nominees for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, attorney general, treasurer, and legislative seats. Polls closed at 8 p.m. ET.

Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, seeking a third full term, faced three primary challengers, including Eric Hansen, the 2024 Republican Senate nominee now running as a Democrat under the ballot name "E. No-Trump Hansen." Coons significantly outraised his rivals. On the Republican side, former state Sen. Michael Katz and Army Reserves Col. John Shulli competed for the nomination. Rep. Sarah McBride ran unopposed for a second term. Attorney General Kathy Jennings faced two Democratic primary challengers, while Republican David Graham ran unopposed. The treasurer's race was the state's only open statewide seat, with three Democrats competing and Republican Michael Ramone unopposed.

Despite a midterm climate historically unfavorable to the president's party, Delaware's statewide offices are expected to remain solidly Democratic, extending a streak dating to the 1990s. All 41 state House seats and about half of the state Senate seats were also on the ballot.

Sources:

  • PBS.org

Sentiment

  • Chris Coons Coons is portrayed as a strong incumbent who significantly outraised his primary rivals.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Delaware's statewide offices are expected to remain solidly Democratic, a modestly favorable indicator for the party.
  • Delaware Delaware is the factual setting of the primary election with neutral coverage.
  • Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates are mentioned as running but facing an unfavorable political climate in a Democratic-leaning state.
  • United States House of Representatives The U.S. House is referenced factually as a seat up for election with no evaluative content.
  • United States Senate The U.S. Senate seat is a factual subject of the primary with no reputational spin.

Related Events

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Delaware sets Nov. 3 general election ballot and voting procedures

PN Team • 1 month ago

Delaware's Nov. 3 general election will decide a new state treasurer, the state's U.S. Senate seat, its lone U.S. House seat, and several legislative races, following the Sept. 15 primary. Early voting runs Oct. 22-24, Oct. 26-27, and Oct. 28-Nov. 1, with none on Oct. 25. Voter registration for the general election closes Oct. 10, or Oct. 19 for military and overseas citizens. Voters may cast ballots in person on Election Day from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., or request an absentee ballot by Oct. 30 if unable to vote in person due to disability, illness, caregiving, religious observance, or military service.

A Delaware judge separately dismissed a lawsuit from state Senate Minority Leader Gerald Hocker challenging the state's permanent absentee voting system, ruling the automatic mailing of ballots to eligible permanent absentee voters does not violate the state constitution. The Elections Department still recommends those voters submit fresh applications, since an appeal to the state Supreme Court is expected. Hocker faces Democratic challenger Harry S. Gold in his own re-election race this cycle.

Sources:

  • The News Journal

Sentiment

  • Delaware Delaware is the subject of a routine, factual article about election procedures and a legal ruling that reflects normal governmental function.
  • United States House of Representatives The article factually mentions Delaware's lone U.S. House seat as part of the election ballot without evaluative content.
  • United States Senate The U.S. Senate seat is mentioned neutrally as one of the races on the ballot.

Related Events

Related Events

Positive sentiment

Elections

Delaware primary results spark midterm debate over House race, mail voting

PN Team • 1 month ago

Delaware's primary election results have become a focal point for midterm analysis, with commentary centering on Republican challenger Joe Arminio's remarks about Rep. Sarah McBride, which critics say misgendered the incumbent. The exchange has drawn attention to the broader competitiveness and tone of the state's House race heading into November.

Panel discussion also touched on the growing influence of the Working Families Party and progressive organizing within Democratic primaries, signaling potential shifts in coalition dynamics for the midterms. Separately, Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner's case is moving to the Department of Justice, adding a legal dimension to the political landscape in the region. Analysts also raised concerns about whether the Supreme Court's recent ruling on mail voting could create confusion or logistical challenges at polling places this cycle, a factor that may affect turnout and ballot administration in upcoming elections.

Sources:

  • 6abc Action News

Sentiment

  • Republican Party (United States) A Republican challenger's remarks about Rep. McBride were criticized as misgendering, casting a negative light on the party's candidate.
  • United States House of Representatives The House race is discussed factually as a competitive contest without strong positive or negative framing of the institution itself.
  • Delaware Delaware is mentioned as the location of the primary election in a neutral, factual context.

Related Events

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Delaware GOP House candidate defends misgendering Rep. Sarah McBride

PN Team • 1 month ago

Joe Arminio, the Republican nominee challenging Democratic Rep. Sarah McBride for Delaware's House seat, issued a statement defending his conduct after a misgendering controversy at a recent event. Arminio repeatedly referred to McBride, who is openly transgender, as "he" and "gentleman," prompting organizers to cut his speaking time short. McBride, notably, did not ask for him to be removed from the event.

In his statement, Arminio said he appreciated McBride's defense of his freedom of speech and reaffirmed his support for the Constitution. He argued that this support extends to an individual's right to assert their own gender identity, as well as his own right to state the facts as he sees them. The incident has drawn attention to the tone of the Delaware House race, in which McBride, the first openly transgender member of Congress, is seeking reelection.

Sources:

  • 6abc Action News

Sentiment

  • Democratic Party (United States) McBride's party affiliation is mentioned factually without direct reputational weight.
  • United States Congress Congress is referenced only as context for McBride's current position and reelection bid.
  • Delaware Delaware is mentioned as the location of the House race without reputational implications.

Related Events

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Delaware GOP House nominee faces backlash after misgendering Rep. Sarah McBride

PN Team • 1 month ago

Republican U.S. House nominee Joseph "Dr. Joe" Arminio was removed from a candidate forum hosted by the Jewish Federation of Delaware on Sept. 17 after repeatedly misgendering Rep. Sarah McBride, the first openly transgender member of Congress, drawing boos from the audience and a warning from organizers before his microphone was cut. Arminio, who secured the GOP nomination with 48% of the primary vote, has not publicly addressed the incident. Fellow Republican candidate Dr. Mike Katz condemned the conduct and called on Arminio to withdraw from the race, calling the matter "bigger than party and bigger than politics."

The episode adds to a pattern of misgendering McBride has faced since taking office in 2024, including incidents on the House floor, amid a broader national debate over transgender rights fueled by Trump administration policies limiting federal gender recognition. McBride responded by pointing to her legislative record, including bipartisan bills and constituent service recognition, saying she remains focused on cost-of-living issues rather than "politicians seeking to go viral." The Delaware GOP has not commented on the forum or Katz's call for Arminio's withdrawal.

Sources:

  • The News Journal

Sentiment

  • Republican Party (United States) A GOP nominee's misgendering incident and the state party's silence reflect poorly on the Republican Party's handling of the matter.
  • Donald Trump Trump administration policies are cited as context for the broader debate on transgender rights, a mild negative tangential association.
  • Delaware Delaware is the location of the political controversy but is not itself portrayed positively or negatively.
  • United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned factually as the body McBride serves in, with a tangential reference to prior floor incidents.

Related Events

Related Events

Positive sentiment

Elections

Booker and Patel Clash Over FBI Probes of Journalists

PN Team • 1 month ago

Senate Judiciary Committee tensions flared as Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., accused FBI Director Kash Patel of using the bureau to target journalists covering the Trump administration, at one point comparing him to a "thug." Booker pressed Patel on an FBI investigation into New York Times reporters who covered security concerns surrounding the Qatar-donated Air Force One, and questioned whether agents accessed federal databases to gather information on Times journalist Elizabeth Williamson after she reported that Patel had given his girlfriend government-funded security and transportation.

Patel denied targeting reporters, countering that the Obama administration had subpoenaed reporters and conducted extensive interviews in leak investigations. He said his agency instead focuses on people leaking classified information that could endanger officials and citizens. Patel dismissed Booker's "thug" remark as ironic, noting Booker's presidential ambitions.

The exchange underscores ongoing scrutiny of FBI conduct toward the press and government accountability under the current administration, issues with implications for oversight-related prediction markets.

Sources:

  • NBC News

Sentiment

  • Cory Booker Booker is shown aggressively questioning Patel over press freedom concerns, a mixed portrayal balanced by Patel's dismissal of his motives as politically ambitious.

Related Events

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Early voting begins in Grand Rapids ahead of Nov. 3 election

PN Team • 1 week ago

Early in-person voting opened in Grand Rapids, Michigan, giving residents 13 days to cast ballots before the Nov. 3 general election—beyond the nine days required by state law. Voters can cast ballots at any of four sites—St. Peter and Paul School, GRPS University, Ottawa Hills High School, and New Hope Baptist Church—rather than being limited to a home precinct, as on Election Day. The city is also offering live wait-time tracking online. City Clerk Joel Hondorp said absentee voting remains the most popular early option, and voters can bring absentee ballots to any early voting site or their precinct to run through the tabulator in person. The early voting window closes the Sunday before Election Day.

Sources:

  • mlive
  • WLOS
  • WATE 6 On Your Side
  • WOODTV.com

Sentiment

  • Michigan Michigan is mentioned factually as the state where Grand Rapids is located and whose law sets voting requirements.

Related Events

Related Events

Negative sentiment

Politics

Former Delaware Teacher Convicted in Child Rape Case

PN Team • 3 days ago

A jury convicted former Wilmington teacher Christopher Crisona, 58, on all charges Thursday in a child rape case. A Delaware Department of Justice investigation found Crisona sexually abused the victim while teaching at St. Thomas the Apostle School between 1994 and 1995. Delaware Attorney General Kathy Jennings called the abuse of a position of trust "a horror unto its own." Crisona faces a mandatory minimum sentence of 47 years in prison, though a sentencing date has not yet been scheduled.

Sources:

  • 6abc Action News

Sentiment

  • Delaware State mentioned as location of the crime and site of the DOJ investigation into the conviction.

Related Events

Related Events

Negative sentiment

Local & State

Delaware state Rep. Josue Ortega pleads not guilty in domestic violence case

PN Team • 1 month ago

Delaware state Rep. Josue Ortega has pleaded not guilty to a misdemeanor offensive touching charge stemming from an alleged May domestic incident. He was charged in August after Kaywren Phelps, a woman he had been in a relationship with, alleged he punched her in the face and took her phone during an argument near a Wilmington shopping center. Police documented swelling and discoloration on her face when she reported the incident. Ortega entered his plea on September 22, ahead of a scheduled arraignment, and a trial has been set for December.

Phelps' allegations, made public earlier this summer, prompted a Delaware House Ethics Committee investigation whose findings have not been disclosed. Both Ortega and Phelps previously filed competing protection-from-abuse petitions against each other. Ortega, whose district covers parts of Wilmington, lost his reelection bid in a three-way Democratic primary this month. His attorney has declined to comment on the case.

Sources:

  • The News Journal

Sentiment

  • Democratic Party (United States) Ortega is identified as a Democratic official who lost his primary amid the domestic violence allegations, mildly reflecting on the party.
  • Delaware Delaware is the setting and Ortega's state legislative district, mentioned factually without direct reputational harm to the state.

Related Events

Related Events

Related Events

Delaware Senate Race: Margin of Victory

Leading:

95.4%

Democrats, 16+ pts

Vol $44.00

2026 Delaware Senate Election Winner

Leading:

97.5%

Chris Coons

Vol $160.9k

Delaware At-Large House Race: 2026 Winner

Leading:

98.5%

Sarah Elizabeth Mcbride

Vol $3k

Florida Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

Leading:

98.5%

Above 7M

Vol $216.92

Tennessee Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

Leading:

98.5%

Above 1.6M

Vol $0.21

New Hampshire Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

Leading:

95.5%

Above 500K

Vol $462.00

Maine Senate Election: How Many Will Vote

Leading:

90%

Above 600K

Vol $0.00

Georgia Senate Election: Will Voter Turnout Hit Key Thresholds?

Leading:

91%

Above 3.30M

Vol $100.00

Sign Up For Our Newsletter

Sign Up
the prediction network

Company

  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Feedback

  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Cookie Policy
  • Sitemaps

Copyright © 2026 The Prediction Network. All Rights Reserved.

Feedback