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Elections

Maine Senate Election: How Many Will Vote

  • Kalshi(opens in a new tab)
  • Polymarket(opens in a new tab)
  • 16 Markets
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Maine’s 2026 U.S. Senate race will test voter turnout in a state known for high civic engagement. The contest, set for November 3, 2026, could feature incumbent Senator Susan Collins facing a competitive challenge, drawing national attention and resources. Turnout levels will hinge on the race’s competitiveness, candidate recruitment, and broader midterm dynamics.

Why Markets Are Watching

Turnout shapes who wins in close races, especially in a swing-leaning state like Maine. High participation often favors certain coalitions, making turnout itself a proxy for broader political momentum heading into the 2026 midterms. The outcome could influence Senate control and signal voter enthusiasm nationwide.

How Prediction Markets Frame the Turnout Question

These contracts isolate a single measurable variable: how many total votes will be cast in Maine’s Senate race, independent of who wins. Traders are effectively weighing historical turnout patterns against factors like campaign intensity and national mobilization efforts. It reduces a complex civic event to a quantifiable threshold question, separate from candidate preference.

Related terms

  • United States Senate
  • General election
  • Voter turnout
  • United States midterm election
  • Swing state
  • Maine
  • Susan Collins
  • Civic engagement

Total Volume

$24.4k

Kalshi $14.7k · Polymarket $9.7k

Leading Market

Above 600K

Polymarket 90%

Above 600K Volume

$0.00

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Latest Coverage

Insights

Elections

The Collins Contract at 36¢ Is the Best Mispricing Left in the Midterms

22 hours ago

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Elections

Democrats Are 68 Cents to Win the Senate. They’re 1.6 Points From Losing It.

7 days ago

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Calculate Your Potential Return

$
  • Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
  • Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
Market Kalshi Yes Kalshi Fee Kalshi Payout Polymarket Yes Polymarket Fee Polymarket Payout
Above 600K — — — 71.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 600K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket
Above 620K 80.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 620K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
— — —
Above 650K — — — 98.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 650K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket
Above 700K 49.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 700K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
54.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 700K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket
Above 740K 39.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 740K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
— — —

* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.

All Markets

Market Total Volume Kalshi(opens in a new tab) Polymarket(opens in a new tab)
Above 600K $0.00 —No market
90.0%
Yes: 71¢ —
, trade Above 600K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
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Above 620K $35.09
84.0%
Yes: 80¢ Vol: $35.09
, trade Above 620K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
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—No market
Above 650K $530.00 —No market
72.0%
Yes: 98¢ Vol: $530.00
, trade Above 650K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
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Above 700K $2,100.39
45.0%
Yes: 49¢ Vol: $2.1k
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53.5%
Yes: 54¢ Vol: $0.10
, trade Above 700K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
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Above 740K $1,178.73
45.0%
Yes: 39¢ Vol: $1.2k
, trade Above 740K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
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—No market
Above 750K $2,599.38 —No market
42.0%
Yes: 67¢ Vol: $2.6k
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Above 780K $2,156.44
33.0%
Yes: 29.0¢ Vol: $2.2k
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—No market
Above 820K $5,187.01
25.0%
Yes: 22¢ Vol: $5.2k
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—No market
Above 850K $1,735.55 —No market
19.0%
Yes: 27¢ Vol: $1.7k
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Above 900K $1,160.06
18.0%
Yes: 12¢ Vol: $986.86
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4.5%
Yes: 5¢ Vol: $173.20
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Above 860K $1,763.65
17.0%
Yes: 15¢ Vol: $1.8k
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—No market
Above 940K $372.67
12.0%
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Above 800K $4,672.43 —No market
10.0%
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Above 980K $950.57
8.0%
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—No market
Above 460K $0.00
0.0%
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0.0%
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Emerging News

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Collins Says Trump Will Exempt Some Canadian Goods From Tariffs

PN Team • 7 days ago

Maine Sen. Susan Collins says Washington will exempt several Canadian products, including corrugated paper, plastic boxes, and machinery, from tariffs, citing benefits for her state's agricultural sector. The announcement comes ahead of next month's midterms, with Collins facing a close race against Democrat Troy Jackson. President Trump said the U.S. is close to deals with both Canada and Mexico, though Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa is willing to wait for a future administration if needed. Talks collapsed in August, triggering steep tariffs from both sides, and Canada's chief negotiator says there is no set timeline for resuming formal negotiations.

Sources:

  • www.theepochtimes.com

Sentiment

  • Susan Collins Credited with securing tariff exemptions benefiting her state ahead of a tight race.
  • Maine Maine's agricultural sector is cited as benefiting from the tariff exemptions.
  • Donald Trump Portrayed as nearing trade deals with Canada and Mexico.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only via Collins's Democratic challenger in an election context.
  • United States Referenced as party to tariff negotiations with Canada and Mexico.
  • United States Senate Referenced as Collins's chamber amid tariff exemption announcement and reelection race.
  • Washington (state) Washington referenced as shorthand for the U.S. government making tariff decisions.

Related Events

Related Events

Positive sentiment

Elections

Maine Senate Race Could Trigger First Statewide Ranked-Choice Count

PN Team • 5 days ago

Maine's U.S. Senate race between Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson is rated among the closest in the country, raising the possibility that neither candidate wins a first-choice majority on election night. If so, the state would conduct its first-ever statewide ranked-choice count in a general election, a process that has taken up to a week to complete in past elections. Secretary of State Shenna Bellows says her office is trying to speed up tabulation but is not promising quick results. Past ranked-choice counts in Maine have drawn legal challenges, and officials expect similar litigation here, echoing a recent Trump-backed effort to block certification in Alaska's ranked-choice Senate race.

Sources:

  • Bangor Daily News

Sentiment

  • Donald Trump Associated with an effort to block certification, framed as litigious interference.
  • Alaska Referenced as site of a contested ranked-choice count facing legal challenges.
  • Susan Collins Described factually as a candidate in a closely contested, competitive race.
  • Troy Jackson Described factually as a candidate in a closely contested, competitive race.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only to identify Jackson's party affiliation in a factual race description.
  • Maine Central setting for a factual account of an electoral process and procedure.
  • United States Senate Referenced as the office being contested in a factual, balanced race description.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Maine Democrats voice concern over Jackson’s Senate debate performance against Collins

PN Team • 1 week ago

Maine State Senate President Troy Jackson, the Democratic nominee who entered the race after Graham Platner's removal from the ballot, faced Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) in his final debate before the midterms. Some Democratic observers, including former Platner supporters, expressed frustration that Jackson failed to put Collins on the defensive. The exchange has fueled anxiety within the party about the strength of its challenge to Collins' reelection bid.

The race remains a closely watched contest as control of the Senate is weighed ahead of the midterms.

Sources:

  • Washington Examiner

Sentiment

  • Troy Jackson Jackson is criticized by fellow Democrats for failing to challenge Collins effectively, harming his standing as a candidate.
  • Democratic Party (United States) The party is depicted as anxious and internally frustrated over its candidate's weak debate performance against Collins.
  • Susan Collins Collins is portrayed as effectively avoiding being put on the defensive, suggesting a strong debate showing.
  • Maine Maine is mentioned as the setting of the Senate race without specific reputational framing.
  • United States Senate Referenced factually as the chamber whose control is being contested, with no reputational charge.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Maine Senate race tightens as Collins seeks sixth term

PN Team • 2 weeks ago

Maine's 2026 Senate race is drawing national attention as Republican incumbent Susan Collins seeks a sixth term against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, in a contest seen as pivotal to control of the chamber. Collins has emphasized independence from President Trump during campaign events, including a recent debate. Former Democratic-turned-independent Senator Joe Manchin, who endorsed Collins and called her "the soul of the Senate," is set to campaign alongside her at an event in central Maine this week. The race is one of several competitive statewide contests in Maine, alongside governor and congressional races, making the state a key battleground for the 2026 midterms.

Sources:

  • WCPO

Sentiment

  • Susan Collins Depicted favorably as an independent-minded incumbent earning a high-profile endorsement.
  • Maine Described as a key battleground state, a largely neutral factual mention.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Jackson's party affiliation in a neutral factual context.
  • Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as Collins's party affiliation in a neutral factual context.
  • Troy Jackson Mentioned neutrally as the Democratic challenger without further characterization.
  • United States Senate Referenced as the chamber whose control is at stake, a neutral institutional mention.

Related Events

Related Events

Positive sentiment

Elections

Poll shows Jackson narrowly ahead of Collins in Maine Senate race

PN Team • 3 weeks ago

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll finds Democrat Troy Jackson leading Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) 50 percent to 46 percent, with less than a month until Election Day. The race is among the most closely watched of the midterms, as Collins is the only Senate Republican defending her seat this cycle in a state that backed Kamala Harris in 2024, and the outcome could help determine control of the chamber, where Republicans hold a narrow majority.

The survey, conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, shows Collins struggling with President Trump's unpopularity in Maine, with a majority of voters saying she has been too supportive of him. Jackson, a former Maine Senate president who entered the race after Graham Platner's campaign collapsed amid scandal, leads on affordability, health care, abortion and corruption, while Collins holds a wide edge on securing federal funding and bipartisan dealmaking. Collins has cast Jackson as too liberal for Maine, citing his past support for Medicare for All, while highlighting his earlier opposition to abortion rights.

Sources:

  • The Hill

Sentiment

  • Susan Collins Collins is portrayed as trailing in the polls and struggling due to association with an unpopular president, a clear reputational negative.
  • Donald Trump Trump's unpopularity in Maine is cited as a drag on Collins, reflecting negatively on his standing there.
  • Republican Party (United States) The article highlights the Republican incumbent trailing and struggling due to Trump's unpopularity, a mild negative for the party.
  • Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic candidate leads in the poll, a mild positive for the party's prospects.
  • Kamala Harris Mentioned only as having won Maine in 2024, a neutral factual reference.
  • Maine Maine is the setting of the race, mentioned factually without reputational valence.
  • United States Senate Referenced factually as the chamber whose control is at stake, without specific reputational framing.

Related Events

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Collins says Jackson “struggles to control his temper” after old police report resurfaces

PN Team • 2 months ago

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) said Maine Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson "struggles to control his temper," after a 1988 police report resurfaced detailing a misdemeanor assault charge from a fight he was involved in at age 19. The report also indicated Jackson pushed his longtime partner, Lana Pelletier, during the incident.

Jackson acknowledged the fight, saying he took responsibility for it then and now, but denied ever being violent with Pelletier. Pelletier issued her own statement backing Jackson, saying she did not recall the report and describing him as a caring partner and father. Jackson replaced former candidate Graham Platner, who exited the race amid sexual assault allegations, and has separately faced scrutiny over a water-bottle-throwing incident from his time as Maine Senate president. The Maine Senate race is a top 2026 midterm battleground, with recent polling showing Jackson holding a narrow lead over Collins.


Sources:

  • Washington Examiner

Sentiment

  • Troy Jackson Jackson faces renewed scrutiny over a past assault charge and allegations of pushing his partner, damaging his public image despite denials and his partner's defense.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Jackson is identified as a Democratic candidate embroiled in a controversy involving old allegations, casting a mildly negative light on the party's nominee.
  • Susan Collins Collins is portrayed as making a pointed political attack, which is a routine campaign tactic with minimal reputational effect either way.
  • Maine Maine is mentioned as the location of the Senate race without direct reputational implications.
  • United States Senate The Senate race is mentioned factually as context for the political battle without direct reputational impact on the institution.

Related Events

Related Events

Positive sentiment

Elections

Ocasio-Cortez campaigns for Troy Jackson in Maine Senate race against Collins

PN Team • 1 week ago

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigned in Portland, Maine, for Democrat Troy Jackson, who is challenging Sen. Susan Collins in one of the midterms' most closely watched Senate races. Jackson, a logger from rural northern Maine, entered the race after Graham Platner's campaign collapsed amid sexual assault allegations. Ocasio-Cortez praised Jackson's willingness to campaign alongside a progressive New York lawmaker in a politically different state, and touted policies including Medicare for All and abortion and transgender rights. Jackson addressed concerns from Mainers wary of progressive politics, drawing on his own working-class upbringing. Democrats need to flip Maine and several other GOP-held seats to retake Senate control.

Sources:

  • Daily News

Sentiment

  • Troy Jackson Jackson is portrayed favorably as a relatable working-class candidate with growing momentum after a rival's scandal.
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Ocasio-Cortez is portrayed positively as an effective campaigner praising Jackson's progressive alliance.
  • Susan Collins Collins is framed as the vulnerable incumbent being challenged in a closely watched race.
  • Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is mentioned as the party needing to flip Senate seats, a neutral factual reference.
  • Maine Maine is mentioned factually as the state hosting the key Senate race.
  • New York City New York is referenced only as Ocasio-Cortez's home state in contrast to Maine's politics.
  • United States Senate The U.S. Senate is referenced as the chamber Democrats need to control, a neutral factual mention.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Maine Democrats demand answers from Collins over pay-to-play FBI probe report

PN Team • 1 month ago

Maine Democrats are demanding that Sen. Susan Collins address a ProPublica report alleging the FBI planned in 2024 to investigate whether she knew about illegal campaign contributions tied to Hawaii defense contractor Navatek. The report says a Collins fundraiser sought a $500,000 donation from Navatek executives in 2019, and CEO Martin Kao funneled $150,000 through a shell company after Collins allegedly committed to securing the company $32 million in Navy contracts. Kao and two other executives were later indicted for illegal campaign donations; Kao is now serving additional prison time after pleading guilty. ProPublica reported the probe stalled after Trump took office in 2021, amid a broader pullback in corruption investigations under his administration, including cuts to the Justice Department's Public Integrity Section and an FBI public-corruption squad.

Collins called the allegations "categorically false" and attacked Kao's credibility given his fraud and money-laundering convictions; the FBI said it already investigated and found nothing implicating her. Senate Majority Leader John Thune called the report "a political hit job." It lands six weeks before Collins seeks a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, who called the allegations "corruption of the highest order," in a pivotal Senate race in a state Trump lost in 2024.

Sources:

  • TribLIVE
  • U.S. News & World Report
  • My Northwest
  • CNN International
  • PBS.org

Sentiment

  • Susan Collins Collins faces serious allegations of knowing about illegal campaign contributions tied to a pay-to-play scheme, damaging her reputation despite her denials.
  • Donald Trump Trump's administration is linked to a pullback in corruption investigations that allegedly let the probe into Collins stall, casting him in a negative light.
  • United States Navy The Navy is mentioned only as the source of contracts allegedly influenced by illegal donations, a tangential but slightly negative association.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Maine Democrats are mentioned as demanding answers, a neutral factual reference to the party's political action.
  • Hawaii Hawaii is mentioned only as the location of the defense contractor involved in the scandal, a neutral geographic reference.
  • Maine Maine is referenced as the state holding the pivotal Senate race, a neutral geographic and political context.
  • United States Senate The Senate is referenced factually as the body Collins serves in and the race context, without direct reputational implication.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Sanders rallies for Jackson in tight Maine Senate race against Collins

PN Team • 3 weeks ago

Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigned across Maine this weekend for Democrat Troy Jackson, who is running a dead-heat race against five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins. At stops in Bangor, Lewiston and Biddeford, Sanders and Jackson tied high living costs, gas and heating prices, and health care expenses to Republican control of Congress, while Sanders called President Trump "the most dangerous president in the history of America."

Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and state legislator, pitched himself as a working-class candidate who has struggled with his own mortgage and medical bills, and pointed to his record expanding free school lunches and gun background checks. Both candidates backed Sanders-style proposals including universal health care, taxing billionaires, and funding affordable housing and child care. Collins, 73, has previously outperformed polling but faces headwinds from inflation, an unpopular war in the Middle East and Trump-related voter fatigue, even among traditionally moderate Mainers. Polls currently show the race tied ahead of the November 3 election.

Sources:

  • Washington Times

Sentiment

  • Donald Trump Trump is called "the most dangerous president in the history of America" and linked to voter fatigue, a clearly negative portrayal.
  • Troy Jackson Jackson is portrayed sympathetically as a working-class candidate with relatable struggles and a strong legislative record.
  • Susan Collins Collins is depicted facing political headwinds and declining support amid inflation and war fatigue.
  • Republican Party (United States) Republican control of Congress is blamed for high living costs by the candidates.
  • Bernie Sanders Sanders is shown actively campaigning and advocating popular economic proposals, a favorable activist portrayal.
  • Middle East The unpopular war in the Middle East is cited as a political headwind affecting Collins' standing.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Jackson runs as a Democrat with Sanders' support, framed positively as fighting affordability issues.
  • Maine Maine is the factual setting of the Senate race without added reputational framing.
  • United States Senate The Senate is the factual context for the race but not characterized itself.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Maine Gov. Janet Mills launches Senate bid to challenge Susan Collins

PN Team • 2 months ago

Maine Gov. Janet Mills, 77, has entered the 2026 Senate race as a Democrat, aiming to unseat longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Mills, recruited by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, framed her campaign as a fight against President Trump's agenda, arguing Collins has failed to sufficiently oppose it despite occasional criticism. She pointed to a widely shared exchange with Trump over transgender athletes as evidence of her willingness to confront him directly. Collins, who has not yet announced her own reelection campaign, did not respond to Mills' launch, though a Republican campaign group criticized Mills over her positions on LGBTQ rights and immigration.

Mills first faces a Democratic primary against Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and political newcomer endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders who has drawn large crowds statewide, along with brewery founder Dan Kleban. Maine is considered a top Democratic pickup opportunity, as it's the only state Trump lost in 2024 with a Republican incumbent senator up in 2026, in a Senate currently split 53-47 in Republicans' favor.

Sources:

  • Daily News

Sentiment

  • Janet Mills Mills is portrayed positively as a bold challenger confronting Trump and launching a high-profile Senate bid.
  • Susan Collins Collins is criticized for insufficiently opposing Trump's agenda and did not respond to the challenge, casting her in a weaker light.
  • Bernie Sanders Sanders is noted for endorsing a popular primary challenger, casting him as an influential kingmaker.
  • Donald Trump Trump is framed as the target of opposition and criticism, including a viral confrontation over transgender athletes.
  • Chuck Schumer Schumer is credited with recruiting Mills, portraying him as strategically effective.
  • Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is portrayed as seeing an opportunity to gain a Senate seat, a mildly favorable framing.
  • Maine Maine is mentioned factually as the contested state and political battleground.
  • Republican Party (United States) Mentioned mainly in factual context of the Senate split and a critical campaign response, with minimal reputational effect.
  • United States Senate Referenced only factually regarding the current partisan split in the Senate.

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Leading:

67.5%

Dems sweep

Vol $25.4k

Combined Outcome of Maine and Texas Senate Races in 2026

Leading:

59%

James Talarico and Troy Jackson

Vol $902k

Which party will control Maine’s State Senate after 2026

Leading:

67.5%

Troy Dale Jackson

Vol $11.6m

Maine Senate Race Outcome Tracked Across Prediction Markets

Leading:

67.5%

Troy Dale Jackson

Vol $11.6m

Maine Senate Election: Who Will Win the 2026 Race

Leading:

68%

Troy Jackson

Vol $5.3m

Which 2026 Senate Race Will Be Closer: Maine or Texas?

Leading:

55%

Texas

Vol $0.00

Florida Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

Leading:

98.5%

Above 7M

Vol $193.92

Tennessee Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

Leading:

97%

Above 1.8M

Vol $0.32

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