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Elections

Idaho Senate Election: Voter Turnout

  • Kalshi(opens in a new tab)
  • Polymarket(opens in a new tab)
  • 17 Markets
Watch

Idaho voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026 to decide the state’s U.S. Senate race. Beyond who wins, a separate question is drawing attention: how many Idahoans will actually cast a ballot. Turnout projections range widely, with thresholds spanning from under 500,000 to more than 700,000 votes.

Why Markets Are Watching

Turnout shapes how representative an election outcome feels, especially in a midterm cycle where participation often lags presidential years. Idaho’s electorate skews rural and conservative, and shifts in turnout can signal broader enthusiasm trends across the Mountain West. Low or high turnout also affects how campaigns and parties plan future mobilization efforts.

How Prediction Markets Frame the Turnout Threshold

Rather than asking who wins the Senate seat, this market isolates a single variable: the final vote count. Each threshold functions as a distinct yes-or-no proposition, letting traders stake positions on whether turnout clears specific numerical bars. That structure turns a routine administrative outcome into a layered forecast of civic engagement, distinct from the race’s political result.

Related terms

  • United States Senate
  • General election
  • Voter turnout
  • Rural area
  • Idaho
  • Election
  • 2022 United States Senate elections
  • Civic engagement

Total Volume

$9k

Kalshi $4.1k · Polymarket $4.9k

Leading Market

Above 560K

Kalshi 94% · Polymarket 99%

Above 560K Volume

$1.1k

Kalshi $485.52 · Polymarket $653.96

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Calculate Your Potential Return

$
  • Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
  • Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
Market Kalshi Yes Kalshi Fee Kalshi Payout Polymarket Yes Polymarket Fee Polymarket Payout
Above 560K 95.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 560K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
99.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 560K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket
Above 520K — — — 67.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 520K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket
Above 590K 85.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 590K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
— — —
Above 530K 99.0¢ 7.0%
, trade Above 530K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi
— — —
Above 600K — — — 77.0¢ 5%
, trade Above 600K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket

* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.

All Markets

Market Total Volume Kalshi(opens in a new tab) Polymarket(opens in a new tab)
Above 560K $1,139.48
94.0%
Yes: 95¢ Vol: $485.52
, trade Above 560K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
98.5%
Yes: 99¢ Vol: $653.96
, trade Above 560K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 520K $504.33 —No market
92.0%
Yes: 67¢ Vol: $504.33
, trade Above 520K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 590K $1,704.01
87.0%
Yes: 85¢ Vol: $1.7k
, trade Above 590K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 530K $3.00
81.0%
Yes: 99¢ Vol: $3.00
, trade Above 530K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 600K $2,406.12 —No market
66.0%
Yes: 77¢ Vol: $2.4k
, trade Above 600K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 620K $408.53
63.0%
Yes: 79¢ Vol: $408.53
, trade Above 620K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 640K $231.20 —No market
56.0%
Yes: 75¢ Vol: $231.20
, trade Above 640K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 680K $703.86
55.0%
Yes: 58.0¢ Vol: $622.64
, trade Above 680K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
53.5%
Yes: 54¢ Vol: $81.22
, trade Above 680K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
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Above 650K $103.68
47.0%
Yes: 69¢ Vol: $103.68
, trade Above 650K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 480K $0.10 —No market
42.0%
Yes: 67¢ Vol: $0.10
, trade Above 480K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 710K $293.87
32.0%
Yes: 47¢ Vol: $293.87
, trade Above 710K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
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—No market
Above 740K $254.94
25.0%
Yes: 39¢ Vol: $254.94
, trade Above 740K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
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—No market
Above 770K $235.00
17.0%
Yes: 31¢ Vol: $235.00
, trade Above 770K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 720K $992.00 —No market
13.5%
Yes: 14.0¢ Vol: $992.00
, trade Above 720K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Polymarket
Above 470K $0.00
0.0%
Yes: 99¢ —
, trade Above 470K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 500K $0.00
0.0%
Yes: 99¢ —
, trade Above 500K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market
Above 800K $0.00
0.0%
Yes: 24¢ —
, trade Above 800K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Trade on Kalshi
—No market

Emerging News

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Florida sets key deadlines for 2026 midterm election

PN Team • 4 weeks ago

Florida election officials have outlined the key dates voters need to know ahead of the 2026 midterm. The deadline to register to vote, or to update a name, address, or party affiliation, is Oct. 5. Voters who want to cast a mail-in ballot must request one by Oct. 22. Early voting runs from Oct. 24 through Oct. 31, with Election Day set for Nov. 3.

To be eligible, a voter must be a U.S. citizen and Florida resident at least 18 years old, not be deemed mentally incapacitated for voting purposes, and not have an unrestored felony conviction. Registration can be completed online, at tax collector's offices that issue Florida driver's licenses or state ID cards, through designated voter registration agencies, or by mail. Local supervisors of elections, including in Leon County, are extending office hours on the registration deadline day to accommodate last-minute registrants. Turnout for Florida midterms historically trails presidential-year turnout significantly, with the 2026 ballot set to decide the governor's race, legislative control, and congressional seats.

These deadlines matter for prediction markets tracking turnout and registration trends ahead of Florida's competitive 2026 races.

Sources:

  • WFLA
  • Tallahassee Democrat
  • WKMG
  • East Idaho News
  • KXAN.com

Sentiment

  • Florida Central location of the article, portrayed neutrally as organizing a routine election process.
  • Ron DeSantis Mentioned indirectly through the governor's race being decided, without direct commentary on him.
  • United States House of Representatives Referenced neutrally as congressional seats are part of what the 2026 ballot will decide.

Related Events

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Positive sentiment

Elections

Idaho Democrat David Roth withdraws from U.S. Senate race, clearing path for independent Achilles

PN Team • 2 months ago

Idaho Democrat David Roth has formally withdrawn his name from the November general election ballot in the U.S. Senate race against Republican incumbent Jim Risch. Roth submitted his withdrawal on Aug. 28, citing a lack of support from the Democratic Party, after announcing in July he was ending his campaign. Roth said he faced pressure from Ada County Democratic leaders and supporters of independent candidate Todd Achilles, who argue an independent has a better shot at unseating Risch in a head-to-head race. Roth did not endorse Achilles and expressed frustration that party leaders backed a candidate other than their own primary winner.

Roth's campaign had raised about $14,600 with roughly $10,100 in debt as of June 30. Achilles has reported raising close to $700,000, while Risch's campaign held more than $4.4 million. The Senate race will now feature Risch, Achilles, independent Natalie Fleming, and Libertarian Matt Loesby on the general election ballot.

Sources:

  • East Idaho News

Sentiment

  • Idaho Democratic Party Ada County Democratic leaders are depicted pressuring Roth to withdraw despite him being the party's own primary winner, suggesting internal disarray.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Democratic Party leaders are portrayed as sidelining their own primary winner in favor of an independent, reflecting internal party dysfunction.
  • Jim Risch Risch is shown as a strong incumbent with a large campaign war chest, reinforcing his dominant position.
  • Independent politician Independent candidates are mentioned as benefiting from the withdrawal, a mostly neutral factual point.
  • Republican Party (United States) Republican incumbent Risch is mentioned mainly as the target of opposition, with neutral factual framing.
  • Idaho Idaho is the neutral geographic setting for the Senate race.
  • United States Senate The U.S. Senate race is the neutral factual context for the article.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Internal Poll Shows Risch Holding Large Lead in Idaho Senate Race

PN Team • 1 week ago

An internal poll conducted by Peak Insights for Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) shows him leading independent challenger Todd Achilles by roughly 27 points, 54% to 27%, with 10% undecided, among 500 likely voters surveyed Oct. 13-15. Risch is seeking a fourth term. Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator, re-registered as an independent after Idaho's Democratic Senate primary winner dropped out to support his bid. The race mirrors a broader 2026 strategy of Democratic-aligned candidates running as independents in red states, including Montana and South Dakota, alongside Nebraska's Dan Osborn, following a tactic Democrats used in 2024.

Sources:

  • Breitbart

Sentiment

  • Jim Risch Risch is shown holding a commanding 27-point lead, a strongly favorable portrayal.
  • Republican Party (United States) Risch's large polling lead reflects positively on the Republican incumbent's standing.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Democratic-aligned strategy of backing independents is mentioned as a tactic, framed somewhat as a workaround after their primary winner dropped out.
  • Idaho Idaho is referenced as the location of the Senate race without reputational framing.
  • Independent politician Independent politician label is referenced as a category describing the strategy used by Achilles and others, factually presented.
  • Montana Montana is mentioned only as another state with a similar independent candidate strategy.
  • Nebraska Nebraska is mentioned briefly in reference to Dan Osborn's similar campaign strategy.
  • South Dakota South Dakota is listed as another state following the same political strategy, with no specific evaluation.
  • United States Senate The U.S. Senate is mentioned only as the context of the race, with no evaluative content.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Ehardt faces Democratic challenger Marshall in Idaho House District 33A race

PN Team • 1 week ago

Incumbent Republican Rep. Barbara Ehardt, a former Division I basketball coach and Idaho Falls City Council member, faces Democratic challenger Chance Marshall, a former Bonneville Young Democrats president, for Idaho House District 33A in the Nov. 3 general election. Ehardt emphasizes parental rights, tax relief, water infrastructure and support for the INL; Marshall prioritizes affordability, education funding, healthcare and housing. The candidates diverge sharply on Proposition 1, the ballot initiative to repeal Idaho's abortion ban, and HJR 4, which would restrict citizen initiatives on drug policy. Water management for drought-hit eastern Idaho reservoirs remains central. Idaho's absentee ballot and voter registration deadline is Oct. 23, with early and in-person voting also available ahead of Election Day.

Sources:

  • East Idaho News

Sentiment

  • Democratic Party (United States) Marshall is identified as a Democrat running for office, a neutral factual mention.
  • Republican Party (United States) Ehardt is identified as the incumbent Republican candidate, a neutral factual mention.
  • Idaho The article centers on an Idaho legislative race and state ballot measures, a neutral geographic context.
  • State governments of the United States The article discusses a state legislative race and ballot measures, a neutral reference to state governance.

Related Events

Neutral sentiment

Elections

Idaho Republicans outraise Democrats in all statewide 2026 races

PN Team • 4 weeks ago

Republican candidates running for statewide office in Idaho's November general election hold a clear fundraising edge over their Democratic and independent challengers, according to state campaign finance reports.

Incumbent Gov. Brad Little leads all statewide candidates, having raised just over $2.3 million in 2026, with no other candidate approaching $1 million. Among Little's challengers, independent John Stegner has raised $516,520 and Democrat Terri Pickens has brought in $217,520.

Little's contributions are split roughly evenly between individuals (about $1.2 million) and companies (nearly $1.1 million), with the remainder from political action committees; most of his money, about $1.7 million, came from within Idaho. Stegner and Pickens each drew a much larger share of their funds from individual donors rather than companies, and both raised the bulk of their contributions in-state as well.

The fundraising gap underscores the Republican Party's continued financial dominance in Idaho politics ahead of the November 3 general election.

Sources:

  • East Idaho News

Sentiment

  • Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is depicted as dominant in fundraising across all statewide races, a favorable portrayal.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as trailing significantly behind Republicans in fundraising, a mildly unfavorable comparison.
  • Idaho Idaho is mentioned as the setting for the political fundraising story without particular reputational slant.
  • Independent politician Independent candidate Stegner is mentioned with modest fundraising, a neutral factual detail.

Related Events

Related Events

Positive sentiment

Elections

Pickens, Stegner call for reversing Little’s policies at Idaho governor forum

PN Team • 3 weeks ago

Democrat Terri Pickens and independent John Stegner, both candidates for Idaho governor, used a Boise candidate forum to outline plans to reverse several policies of Republican Gov. Brad Little ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Little did not attend the League of Women Voters-sponsored event, despite organizers leaving an empty chair for him.

Pickens said she would prioritize a budget restoring funding for mental health services, Medicaid expansion, and public education following recent legislative cuts. Stegner, a retired Idaho Supreme Court justice, said he would move to repeal the Idaho Parental Choice Tax Credit, a school-voucher law Little signed in 2025, calling it unconstitutional.

The two candidates largely agreed on major issues, both backing Proposition 1 to restore abortion rights in Idaho and opposing two legislature-backed constitutional amendments: one restricting ballot initiatives on marijuana legalization and another making English Idaho's official language. Other candidates in the race include Libertarian Paul Sand, Constitution Party candidate Pro-Life (formerly Marvin Richardson), and write-in candidate Jacob Burnett.

Sources:

  • East Idaho News

Sentiment

  • Republican Party (United States) The Republican governor's policies are criticized and he is depicted as absent from a public forum, reflecting negatively on the party.
  • Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidate Pickens is portrayed as proactively proposing restorative policy measures, a mildly favorable framing.
  • Independent politician Independent candidate Stegner is depicted as a credible former justice advancing a clear legal argument.
  • Boise, Idaho Boise is mentioned only as the location of the forum, a neutral factual reference.
  • Idaho Idaho is referenced factually as the state holding the gubernatorial race without specific reputational framing.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Pocatello Democrats hold town hall on affordability, Proposition 1

PN Team • 1 week ago

Idaho District 29 Democratic candidates Sen. James Ruchti, Mary Shea, and former Rep. Nate Roberts held a town hall in Pocatello, drawing 40-50 attendees to discuss affordability ahead of November's general election. Questions ranged from Proposition 1, the abortion-related ballot initiative, to healthcare, Medicaid, housing costs, and wages. Shea clarified the measure would not override Idaho's parental-consent laws for minors. Candidates criticized state income tax cuts, estimated at $4.5 billion over five years, arguing the revenue could have funded affordable housing and childcare instead. Roberts also called for repealing Idaho's right-to-work law to raise wages. The candidates face Republican opponents John Crowder, Dustin Manwaring, and Jennifer Miles.

Sources:

  • East Idaho News

Sentiment

  • Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are portrayed as engaged and responsive on affordability issues at the town hall.
  • Idaho Idaho is referenced factually in relation to state tax policy and laws criticized by candidates.
  • Republican Party (United States) Republican opponents are mentioned as the electoral rivals without further detail, giving a mildly tangential framing.

Related Events

Related Events

Positive sentiment

Elections

Idaho voters weigh in on public lands, ballot measures and Senate races ahead of election

PN Team • 1 month ago

A collection of Idaho Statesman letters to the editor spans several live political issues ahead of upcoming elections. One writer urges Senators Crapo and Risch and Rep. Fulcher to back the Public Lands Integrity Act, arguing it protects access, biodiversity and local stewardship while supporting farmers, ranchers and hunters. Another questions the state legislature's use of an advisory ballot question to designate an official "state gun," arguing lawmakers should instead focus on affordability issues like groceries, housing and health care.

On Idaho's Proposition 1, an embryologist writes in support, framing the measure as protecting patient autonomy in pregnancy decisions. Separate letters address U.S. Senate politics: one criticizes Senator Risch's Ukraine funding record and calls for a clearer strategy from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, while another accuses Risch of avoiding a debate with independent challenger Todd Achilles. A final letter endorses independent gubernatorial candidate John Stegner over incumbent Brad Little, explaining Idaho's plurality voting system ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

Sources:

  • Idaho Statesman

Sentiment

  • Jim Risch Risch is directly criticized for his Ukraine funding record and for avoiding a debate with his challenger.
  • United States Senate Senate is referenced amid criticism of Risch's committee leadership and debate avoidance, giving slightly negative context.
  • Idaho Idaho is the setting for the ballot measures and elections discussed, a neutral geographic reference.
  • United States The United States is referenced generally via Senate and House institutions without specific reputational implication.
  • United States House of Representatives Rep. Fulcher is mentioned as a House member being urged to support legislation, a neutral factual reference.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Elections

Idaho readers debate nuclear waste, abortion ballot measure and congressional races

PN Team • 2 months ago

A batch of reader letters published by the Idaho Statesman weighs in on several hot-button issues ahead of Idaho's November election. Writers criticized Gov. Brad Little over reported plans to accept nuclear waste storage in the state, warning of risks to water supplies, while others addressed the 1st Congressional District race between Rep. Russ Fulcher and challenger Kaylee Peterson, focusing on abortion and reproductive rights records. Sen. Jim Risch's long tenure and age drew criticism from a letter backing independent challenger Todd Achilles, and another writer accused national GOP leadership of drifting from its traditional roots while calling for structural election reforms like ending gerrymandering and adopting ranked-choice voting.

Letters also split sharply on Proposition 1, Idaho's "Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act," with one writer arguing it effectively legalizes abortion with few limits, and another defending it as necessary to protect medical care for pregnancy complications and reduce legislative interference in health decisions.

Sources:

  • Idaho Statesman

Sentiment

  • Jim Risch Risch is directly criticized for his long tenure and age by a letter writer backing his challenger.
  • Republican Party (United States) A letter accuses national GOP leadership of drifting from its traditional roots, casting the party in a critical light.
  • United States Senate Sen. Jim Risch's Senate tenure is criticized for length and age in a reader letter.
  • Independent politician Independent challenger Todd Achilles is mentioned as an alternative to Risch, with a neutral factual framing.
  • United States Congress Congress is referenced tangentially through the congressional race and Senate discussion without strong evaluative content.
  • Idaho Idaho is the setting for the debate over nuclear waste and ballot measures, mentioned factually without direct reputational judgment.

Related Events

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Neutral sentiment

Education

Idaho school district to require staff to certify biological sex for bathroom compliance

PN Team • 2 weeks ago

Bonneville School District 93 in Idaho Falls will require employees to sign a form certifying their "biological sex" as defined under state law, after trustees approved a resolution directing the superintendent to create a verification process. The move is meant to ensure compliance with Senate Bill 1100 (2023), which restricts multi-occupancy school restrooms to the sexes they are designated for, and House Bill 421 (2024), which codifies a binary definition of sex in Idaho law. Employees will confirm or correct their recorded sex and acknowledge restroom-use restrictions tied to it. The policy follows other legal disputes over SB 1100, including a recent Boise School District settlement and a dropped lawsuit challenging the law's application to transgender students.

Sources:

  • East Idaho News

Sentiment

  • Idaho Idaho is mentioned as the state whose laws drive this contentious bathroom policy, linking it to an ongoing controversial legal landscape.

Related Events

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Idaho Senate Race: Margin of Victory

Leading:

83%

Risch, 3+ pts

Vol $382.63

Idaho Senate Race: Who Will Win in 2028

Leading:

95.5%

Jim Risch

Vol $716k

Idaho Senate Race 2026: Who Will Win

Leading:

95.5%

Jim Risch

Vol $716k

New Hampshire Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

Leading:

95.5%

Above 500K

Vol $462.00

Rhode Island Senate Election: Voter Turnout

Leading:

66.5%

Above 250K

Vol $0.01

Oklahoma Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

Leading:

95.5%

Above 1M

Vol $777.63

South Dakota Senate Election: Voter Turnout Thresholds

Leading:

97.5%

Above 250K

Vol $343.86

Tennessee Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

Leading:

97%

Above 1.8M

Vol $0.32

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