South Carolina’s 2nd District House Race 2026
South Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, covering Columbia and surrounding areas, heads back to the polls in November 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles but includes competitive pockets around the state capital. Voters will choose between major-party nominees after primaries determine each party’s candidate.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on dozens of districts like this one, where incumbency, redistricting, and local turnout patterns can shift outcomes. A competitive result here would signal broader voter sentiment heading into the midterms. The race also tests whether national political trends are reshaping traditionally red Southern districts.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question markets are isolating is simple: which party’s nominee wins the general election. This distills a race shaped by candidate quality, fundraising, and local issues into a single binary outcome. Traders are effectively weighing historical partisan lean against any signs of a shifting electorate in this specific district.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Redistricting -
Electoral district -
South Carolina -
Columbia, South Carolina -
Anti-incumbency -
Politics of the Southern United States
Total Volume
$66.6k
Kalshi $47.6k · Polymarket $19k
Leading Market
Joe Wilson
Kalshi 87% · Polymarket 88%
Joe Wilson Volume
$32.3k
Kalshi $30.2k · Polymarket $2k
Joe Wilson 24h Change
+2.00%
Kalshi +2.00% · Polymarket +1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe WilsonRepublican Party | 87.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
88.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Zyon KhalifaDemocratic Party | 14.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
13.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
South Carolina and Georgia hold Tuesday special election runoffs
PN Team • 2 months ago
South Carolina Republicans returned to the polls Tuesday to pick a nominee for the Senate seat long held by the late Lindsey Graham, who died in July after winning renomination in June. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to fill her brother's term and backed by President Trump and Sen. Tim Scott, faced Rep. Ralph Norman in a runoff after neither cleared a majority in the Aug. 11 primary; third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham. The winner faces Democrat Annie Andrews in the fall.
In Georgia's 13th Congressional District near Atlanta, Democrats Everton Blair and Marcye Scott, daughter of late Rep. David Scott, competed in a runoff to serve the remainder of Scott's term after topping a five-candidate field in July. Neither is seeking the full term beginning in 2027; that contest will pit Democratic state Rep. Jasmine Clark against Republican Jonathan Chavez in November. Both races drew attention as tests of turnout and party strength ahead of the 2026 midterms, now 70 days off.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is noted as backing Graham, a mild favorable association with a winning-side endorsement.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are mentioned in both races as neutral factual participants.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates and party context are mentioned neutrally.
- Atlanta Atlanta is mentioned as the location of the Georgia district, purely factual.
- Georgia (U.S. state) Georgia is the setting for one of the two runoff elections described factually.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the setting for the Senate runoff described factually.
- United States House of Representatives The House seat races are factually described without evaluative framing.
- United States Senate The Senate seat contest is factually described without evaluative framing.
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Elections
South Carolina Senate Race Draws Bipartisan Endorsement for Andrews
PN Team • 4 days ago
Two former South Carolina governors, Republican David Beasley and Democrat Jim Hodges, have jointly endorsed Democratic candidate Annie Andrews in her bid to unseat incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. The endorsement, released in a campaign video, frames Andrews as an alternative to partisan gridlock, with both former governors saying the state deserves leadership focused on results rather than political fighting.
The general election field also includes Libertarian Kasie Whitener and Constitution Party candidate Mark Hackett. The cross-party backing adds a notable signal in a closely watched Senate contest.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Governor of South Carolina Two former holders of this office jointly lend credibility to a bipartisan endorsement.
- Democratic Party (United States) Party affiliation noted for the endorsing governor and candidate, framed neutrally as context.
- Republican Party (United States) Party affiliation noted for the endorsing governor and the incumbent, framed neutrally as context.
- South Carolina Mentioned neutrally as the state holding the Senate race.
- United States Senate Factual mention as the body whose seat is being contested.
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Elections
South Carolina governor candidates set for October debate
PN Team • 1 month ago
Republican nominee Alan Wilson and Democratic nominee Jermaine Johnson have agreed to face off in a live, one-hour debate on Oct. 6 in South Carolina's governor's race. The debate, moderated by WIS anchor Judi Gatson with questions from Gray Media political reporters and anchors across the state, will air from the WIS studios in Columbia and stream across Gray-owned stations and digital platforms in Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, Columbia, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Augusta-Aiken, Charlotte and Savannah.
The race marks South Carolina's first open gubernatorial contest in nearly a decade. Gov. Henry McMaster, who took office after Nikki Haley left to become U.N. Ambassador and won full terms in 2018 and 2022, is term-limited. The November election will determine his successor, making this debate a key early test for both candidates ahead of a race prediction markets are watching closely.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Columbia, South Carolina Named as the host city for the debate, a neutral and mildly positive civic association.
- South Carolina Central to the story as the state holding a notable open gubernatorial race, framed neutrally to positively.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of the Democratic nominee in a neutral factual context.
- Governor of South Carolina Referenced as the office at stake in the election, in a neutral factual context.
- Nikki Haley Mentioned factually regarding her past departure to become U.N. Ambassador.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of the Republican nominee in a neutral factual context.
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Elections
South Carolina Senate candidates face off in lone debate before Election Day
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
The three candidates vying for South Carolina's U.S. Senate seat met Tuesday night in Columbia for their only scheduled debate before Election Day, held at SCETV studios and broadcast statewide across television, radio and digital platforms. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews, and Libertarian Dr. Kasie Whitener each took part in the hour-long format, which allotted one minute for opening statements, one minute for responses, and 30-second rebuttals. Candidates did not see questions in advance and were barred from using notes or props.
The debate followed a contentious stretch of the campaign, including remarks from President Trump on Truth Social targeting Andrews over transgender-related issues. Recent polling has shown Graham leading Andrews by a narrow margin, within or close to the margin of error, while Whitener trails both.
With early voting set to begin within days and Election Day roughly three weeks away, the debate offered voters a rare direct comparison of the candidates' positions ahead of a race drawing national attention for its competitiveness.
Sources:
Sentiment
- South Carolina Mentioned neutrally as the state holding the Senate race.
- Columbia, South Carolina Mentioned neutrally as the debate's location.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as Andrews' party affiliation in a factual, neutral context.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned only as Graham's party affiliation in a factual, neutral context.
- United States Senate Referenced factually as the seat being contested.
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Elections
Gray Media requires SC debate candidates to sign exclusivity clauses
PN Team • 2 months ago
Gray Media, South Carolina's largest television ownership group, is requiring candidates in this fall's gubernatorial and U.S. Senate debates to sign contracts barring them from joining rival broadcasters' debates without Gray's written consent. The clause, confirmed by multiple campaign sources, could limit other outlets' ability to host their own televised debates before the Nov. 3 general election.
Gubernatorial nominees Alan Wilson (R) and Jermaine Johnson (D) have tentatively set an Oct. 6 debate with Gray station WIS-TV, Gray's sixth debate broadcast since April. A Senate debate between Darline Graham and Annie Andrews remains under negotiation. Andrews' campaign said it signed Gray's pledge but has also accepted invitations from other stations, including SCETV and Nexstar- and Hearst-owned outlets, raising questions about how the exclusivity clause applies to debate clips and other coverage.
The dispute follows Gray's earlier partnership with the state GOP on primary debates and comes amid broader competition between Gray, Nexstar, and other networks for control of political debate coverage nationally.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic nominee Johnson and Senate candidate are mentioned only factually as participants in debate negotiations.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican nominee Wilson is mentioned only factually as a debate participant.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the location context for the story without direct reputational implication.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate is referenced only as the office being contested, a neutral factual mention.
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2028 Cycle
Pritzker tours South Carolina, stokes 2028 speculation with anti-Trump message
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker spent a day campaigning across South Carolina, headlining the state NAACP's annual convention and stumping for Democratic candidates including Senate nominee Annie Andrews and gubernatorial nominee Jermaine Johnson. Pritzker urged Democrats to be more combative toward President Trump and Republicans, saying the party has been "too dainty" and "too nice," and calling for a "team fight" posture ahead of the midterms.
Pritzker, who faces reelection in Illinois next month, declined to say whether he's running for president in 2028, framing the trip as support for down-ballot Democrats. Still, his appearance before Black voters in the first-in-the-nation primary state fueled speculation about his national ambitions. He also voiced concern that federal immigration enforcement could be used to intimidate voters in competitive states like South Carolina, and touted his financial support for Southern Democratic candidates, including a $1 million donation to Texas gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as the target of criticism and the figure Democrats are urged to fight harder against.
- Democratic Party (United States) Pritzker urges Democrats to adopt a more combative stance, a tangential strategic commentary on the party.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are framed as the opposition target of Pritzker's combative rhetoric.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the setting for Pritzker's political tour, portrayed neutrally as a strategic early-primary state.
- United States Senate The Senate race is mentioned factually as context for Pritzker's campaign stops.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned factually as Pritzker's home state and site of his upcoming reelection.
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Education
South Carolina’s Weaver seeks second term as superintendent, defends school choice record
PN Team • 1 week ago
South Carolina schools Superintendent Ellen Weaver is running for reelection, facing Democrat Sylvia Wright in a race that is competitive in fundraising but has favored Republicans since 2011. Weaver touts gains in reading and math, a push for school safety, and expanded career pathways, while defending the state's three-year-old voucher program that provides over $7,600 per student for private school or homeschool expenses. Critics, including Wright, say the program lacks accountability and mostly benefits families who could already afford private schooling; a recent cyberattack froze vendor payments. Weaver's tenure has also drawn controversy over book bans, cutting AP African American Studies, and aligning with conservative groups like PragerU amid broader public-school enrollment decline.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrat Sylvia Wright is mentioned as the challenger criticizing Weaver's voucher program, a tangential but slightly critical framing of the party's role.
- Republican Party (United States) The race has favored Republicans since 2011, a factual and mildly favorable note about the party's electoral strength.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the factual setting for the state superintendent race and school policy debates.
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Elections
Trump-Backed Graham Wins South Carolina GOP Senate Runoff
PN Team • 2 months ago
Sen. Darline Graham defeated Rep. Ralph Norman 52% to 48% in South Carolina's Republican runoff for the Senate seat held by her brother Lindsey Graham for 23 years before his death in July. Gov. Henry McMaster had appointed her to fill the seat temporarily, and President Trump endorsed her bid for a full term, holding a tele-rally and headlining a Myrtle Beach rally while directing more than $800,000 from his super PAC, MAGA Inc., toward her campaign. Norman, a five-term congressman who largely self-funded his campaign and drew roughly $700,000 in outside spending tied to Nikki Haley, conceded but noted lingering bitterness among his supporters over Trump's involvement. Graham had weathered criticism after admitting during an August debate she was "not that informed on national security," shifting her campaign's focus to domestic issues and her brother's legacy. She now advances to face Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in the November 3 general election for the seat, considered a safe Republican hold.
The result, alongside a narrow Trump-backed win in Oklahoma's gubernatorial runoff, reinforces the president's continued sway in GOP primaries despite recent Trump-endorsed losses elsewhere, including Wyoming and Florida.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement, rallies, and financial backing are credited with helping secure Graham's win, reinforcing his political influence.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican runoff and Trump's continued influence over the GOP primary process are portrayed favorably for the party's coalition.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrat Annie Andrews is named as the party's nominee facing Graham, a neutral factual mention.
- Nikki Haley Haley's allies backed Norman's losing effort, a mild tangential association with defeat.
- Oklahoma Oklahoma's gubernatorial runoff is cited as another example reinforcing Trump's primary influence.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the central location of the Senate runoff, described neutrally as the setting for the political contest.
- Wyoming Wyoming is mentioned only as a location of a separate Trump-endorsed primary loss, tangential to this story.
- Florida Florida is mentioned only as a location of a separate Trump-endorsed primary loss, tangential to this race.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as the chamber Norman and Graham's brother served in, a neutral institutional mention.
- United States Senate Mentioned as the seat being contested, a neutral factual reference.
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2028 Cycle
Warnock campaigns in South Carolina, fueling 2028 speculation
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock drew on his history as senior pastor of Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist Church during an Oct. 13 stop in Columbia, South Carolina, telling Democrats and clergy they could not afford to lose the "fight between hope and despair." He criticized Republican cuts to food stamps and Medicaid eligibility, invoked civil rights history, and urged support for Senate candidate Annie Andrews.
Warnock plans to return to South Carolina this weekend to campaign with Andrews and gubernatorial nominee Jermaine Johnson ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms and early voting. His visits to South Carolina, along with earlier stops in New Hampshire and Nevada — the early presidential primary states — have renewed speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. Warnock downplayed the talk, saying he is focused on 2026 and retaking a Senate majority. Other Democrats eyeing national profiles, including Rahm Emanuel, Andy Beshear, Mark Kelly, Ro Khanna, Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, have also recently visited the early-voting state.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Raphael Warnock Warnock is portrayed as a prominent, principled Democratic figure drawing national attention and rising political speculation.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are criticized for cuts to food stamps and Medicaid eligibility, casting them negatively.
- South Carolina South Carolina is central to the story as the site of Warnock's campaigning and speculation about his political future.
- Atlanta Atlanta is mentioned as the location of Warnock's church, a neutral biographical detail.
- Columbia, South Carolina Columbia, South Carolina is the site of Warnock's campaign stop, mentioned factually.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as the audience and political context without strong positive or negative framing.
- Georgia (U.S. state) Georgia is mentioned as Warnock's home state in a neutral factual context.
- Nevada Nevada is mentioned as an early primary state Warnock visited, factual and neutral.
- New Hampshire New Hampshire is mentioned as an early primary state Warnock visited, factual and neutral.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned as the institution Warnock serves in and aims to help Democrats retake, a neutral factual reference.
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Elections
South Carolina GOP lawsuit seeks closed primaries, sparking pushback
PN Team • 1 month ago
The South Carolina Republican Party filed a federal lawsuit on July 8 seeking partisan voter registration and the power to bar voters not registered as Republicans from participating in GOP primaries. Party Chairman Drew McKissick said the move followed the stalling of two closed-primary bills in the General Assembly. On July 29, Veterans for All Voters and The Chamberlain Network filed a motion to intervene, defending the current system that lets any eligible voter participate in taxpayer-funded primaries without party registration.
A Starboard Communications survey found 54 percent of Republican primary voters support keeping open primaries versus 39 percent favoring closed ones, with support spanning the party's coalition. Critics, including veterans' advocates, argue closed primaries would disenfranchise the roughly 195,000 South Carolina veterans who identify as independents, and would concentrate power among party leaders and donors. The case is pending in federal court.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The South Carolina GOP's lawsuit to close primaries is portrayed as controversial and facing pushback from veterans and its own voter base.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the setting for the political and legal dispute, mentioned factually without direct reputational impact.
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