South Carolina’s 7th District House Race 2026
South Carolina’s 7th Congressional District heads to the polls in November 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The coastal and Pee Dee region seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles, but every midterm brings fresh scrutiny of turnout and candidate strength. Primaries and candidate filings will shape the field before the general election showdown.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on dozens of races like this one, where incumbent strength and regional political trends intersect. A shift in SC-07 would signal broader momentum in the Carolinas and could reflect national sentiment heading into the midterms. Local economic conditions and redistricting effects add further weight to the outcome.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multifaceted congressional contest to a single binary: which party’s nominee wins the seat. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency advantage against shifting regional demographics and turnout patterns. This framing isolates partisan control as the key variable, stripping away candidate-specific nuance to focus purely on which side ultimately prevails.
Related terms
Total Volume
$75.7k
Kalshi $49.6k · Polymarket $26.1k
Leading Market
Russell Fry
Kalshi 95% · Polymarket 95%
Russell Fry Volume
$36.1k
Kalshi $16.8k · Polymarket $19.3k
Russell Fry 24h Change
+1.00%
Kalshi +0.40% · Polymarket +1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell FryRepublican Party | 95.3¢ | 7.0% |
|
96.0¢ | 5% |
|
| John VincentDemocratic Party | 4.7¢ | 7.0% |
|
5.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
South Carolina and Georgia hold Tuesday special election runoffs
PN Team • 2 months ago
South Carolina Republicans returned to the polls Tuesday to pick a nominee for the Senate seat long held by the late Lindsey Graham, who died in July after winning renomination in June. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to fill her brother's term and backed by President Trump and Sen. Tim Scott, faced Rep. Ralph Norman in a runoff after neither cleared a majority in the Aug. 11 primary; third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham. The winner faces Democrat Annie Andrews in the fall.
In Georgia's 13th Congressional District near Atlanta, Democrats Everton Blair and Marcye Scott, daughter of late Rep. David Scott, competed in a runoff to serve the remainder of Scott's term after topping a five-candidate field in July. Neither is seeking the full term beginning in 2027; that contest will pit Democratic state Rep. Jasmine Clark against Republican Jonathan Chavez in November. Both races drew attention as tests of turnout and party strength ahead of the 2026 midterms, now 70 days off.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is noted as backing Graham, a mild favorable association with a winning-side endorsement.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are mentioned in both races as neutral factual participants.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates and party context are mentioned neutrally.
- Atlanta Atlanta is mentioned as the location of the Georgia district, purely factual.
- Georgia (U.S. state) Georgia is the setting for one of the two runoff elections described factually.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the setting for the Senate runoff described factually.
- United States House of Representatives The House seat races are factually described without evaluative framing.
- United States Senate The Senate seat contest is factually described without evaluative framing.
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Elections
South Carolina Senate Race Tightens Between Graham and Andrews
PN Team • 2 days ago
A new New York Times poll shows appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) and Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in a near-even race, with Graham leading by less than one point among likely voters. Graham, who took the seat after her brother Lindsey Graham's death and later won a contested GOP primary, faces voter doubts about her experience, with a majority saying she lacks the qualifications for the job. Andrews leads among independents and draws some crossover Republican support, with voters favoring her on the economy and cost of living. Despite the close poll, forecasters still rate the seat as leaning Republican in a state Democrats haven't won statewide since 1998.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Andrews, the Democratic nominee, is shown gaining ground and crossover support in a tight race.
- United States Senate Senate seat described as contested with voter doubts about the incumbent's qualifications.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican seat faces voter doubts and a tight race despite historical dominance in the state.
- South Carolina State referenced factually as the race's location and historical Republican stronghold.
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2028 Cycle
Pritzker tours South Carolina, stokes 2028 speculation with anti-Trump message
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker spent a day campaigning across South Carolina, headlining the state NAACP's annual convention and stumping for Democratic candidates including Senate nominee Annie Andrews and gubernatorial nominee Jermaine Johnson. Pritzker urged Democrats to be more combative toward President Trump and Republicans, saying the party has been "too dainty" and "too nice," and calling for a "team fight" posture ahead of the midterms.
Pritzker, who faces reelection in Illinois next month, declined to say whether he's running for president in 2028, framing the trip as support for down-ballot Democrats. Still, his appearance before Black voters in the first-in-the-nation primary state fueled speculation about his national ambitions. He also voiced concern that federal immigration enforcement could be used to intimidate voters in competitive states like South Carolina, and touted his financial support for Southern Democratic candidates, including a $1 million donation to Texas gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as the target of criticism and the figure Democrats are urged to fight harder against.
- Democratic Party (United States) Pritzker urges Democrats to adopt a more combative stance, a tangential strategic commentary on the party.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are framed as the opposition target of Pritzker's combative rhetoric.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the setting for Pritzker's political tour, portrayed neutrally as a strategic early-primary state.
- United States Senate The Senate race is mentioned factually as context for Pritzker's campaign stops.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned factually as Pritzker's home state and site of his upcoming reelection.
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Elections
South Carolina Republicans Vote in Runoff to Fill Lindsey Graham’s Senate Seat
PN Team • 2 months ago
South Carolina voters headed to the polls on Aug. 25 in a Republican runoff to determine who will hold the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to the seat by Gov. Henry McMaster after her brother's passing, faced Rep. Ralph Norman, a 7th District congressman known for clashing with House leadership. Neither candidate cleared 50 percent in the Aug. 11 primary, with Graham taking about 33 percent and Norman about 24 percent, triggering the runoff.
President Donald Trump endorsed Graham and campaigned for her in Myrtle Beach, framing the race as important to Republican midterm prospects. Graham drew criticism after saying "national security is not my thing" during an Aug. 18 debate, prompting rebukes from Norman and former Gov. Nikki Haley, though Trump defended her. Third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham, while fourth-place finisher Mark Sanford, a Trump critic, backed Norman. The winner is heavily favored in the general election against Democrat Andrews in the deep-red state.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed positively as an active endorser and defender of Graham, reinforcing his political influence.
- Nikki Haley Haley is shown criticizing Graham, casting her in a mildly adversarial light.
- Republican Party (United States) The party context frames the runoff but is described neutrally as the dominant party in a deep-red state.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as the party of the general election opponent Andrews, a neutral factual reference.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the neutral setting for the election described.
- United States Congress Referenced only via Norman's congressional role, a neutral factual detail.
- United States Senate The Senate seat itself is the neutral subject of the runoff race.
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Elections
Norman Says Family Will Not Vote for Sen. Graham in South Carolina Race
PN Team • 1 week ago
Rep. Ralph Norman said he will keep his pledge to vote for Sen. Darline Graham in the November midterms, but his family will not support her, and he will not campaign on her behalf. Norman, who lost to Graham in the August GOP primary runoff, has repeatedly criticized Trump's endorsement of her and the state GOP establishment's involvement in the race. Graham, appointed to fill the seat after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham, faces Democrat Annie Andrews in a contest that the Cook Political Report recently shifted from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican." Trump campaigned for Graham in South Carolina this week as the race tightens.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Depicted as internally divided, with Norman criticizing the state GOP establishment's handling of the race.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement of Graham is criticized by Norman, casting mild doubt on his judgment amid a tightening race.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as the party of challenger Annie Andrews in a tightening race.
- South Carolina Mentioned as the setting for a competitive, tightening political race without direct reputational judgment.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as Norman's chamber of service, without evaluative content.
- United States Senate Referenced as the body Graham and Norman are associated with, factual context only.
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Elections
South Carolina Senate Race Draws Bipartisan Endorsement for Andrews
PN Team • 4 days ago
Two former South Carolina governors, Republican David Beasley and Democrat Jim Hodges, have jointly endorsed Democratic candidate Annie Andrews in her bid to unseat incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. The endorsement, released in a campaign video, frames Andrews as an alternative to partisan gridlock, with both former governors saying the state deserves leadership focused on results rather than political fighting.
The general election field also includes Libertarian Kasie Whitener and Constitution Party candidate Mark Hackett. The cross-party backing adds a notable signal in a closely watched Senate contest.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Governor of South Carolina Two former holders of this office jointly lend credibility to a bipartisan endorsement.
- Democratic Party (United States) Party affiliation noted for the endorsing governor and candidate, framed neutrally as context.
- Republican Party (United States) Party affiliation noted for the endorsing governor and the incumbent, framed neutrally as context.
- South Carolina Mentioned neutrally as the state holding the Senate race.
- United States Senate Factual mention as the body whose seat is being contested.
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2028 Cycle
Newsom’s South Carolina swing tests Democrats’ rebuilding strategy
PN Team • 2 months ago
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), term-limited and widely viewed as a likely 2028 presidential contender, began a three-day swing through South Carolina and North Carolina, his fourth visit to the early primary state. State Democrats say the trip serves a dual purpose: giving Newsom exposure to primary voters while boosting volunteer energy and attention for state legislative races ahead of a critical election roughly 60 days away. Newsom is campaigning in more than 10 counties, including six that President Trump carried in 2024, focusing on competitive state House districts in the Lowcountry region.
Democrats say they are fielding candidates in all 124 state House districts for the first time in about 50 years, and are using visits from potential 2028 contenders like Newsom, Andy Beshear, and Wes Moore as surrogate appearances to energize grassroots organizing. South Carolina Republicans dismissed the visit, arguing Newsom's record makes him an unappealing messenger for the state's voters.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is central to the story as an energetic, high-profile campaigner despite Republican criticism of his record.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as actively rebuilding and organizing, a modestly favorable framing.
- Andy Beshear Beshear is mentioned as a potential 2028 contender helping energize Democratic organizing, a mildly favorable mention.
- Wes Moore Moore is mentioned as a potential 2028 contender contributing positively to Democratic organizing efforts.
- Republican Party (United States) South Carolina Republicans are mentioned dismissively critiquing Newsom, a neutral-to-slightly negative reference for the party generally.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced factually regarding counties he carried in 2024, a neutral tangential mention.
- Governor of California Newsom's governorship is mentioned factually as context for his political role.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the central setting for the political story, portrayed neutrally as a competitive battleground.
- California California is mentioned only as Newsom's home state in a factual, neutral context.
- North Carolina North Carolina is mentioned factually as part of Newsom's campaign swing without added reputational weight.
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Elections
South Carolina Senate candidates face off in lone debate before Election Day
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
The three candidates vying for South Carolina's U.S. Senate seat met Tuesday night in Columbia for their only scheduled debate before Election Day, held at SCETV studios and broadcast statewide across television, radio and digital platforms. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews, and Libertarian Dr. Kasie Whitener each took part in the hour-long format, which allotted one minute for opening statements, one minute for responses, and 30-second rebuttals. Candidates did not see questions in advance and were barred from using notes or props.
The debate followed a contentious stretch of the campaign, including remarks from President Trump on Truth Social targeting Andrews over transgender-related issues. Recent polling has shown Graham leading Andrews by a narrow margin, within or close to the margin of error, while Whitener trails both.
With early voting set to begin within days and Election Day roughly three weeks away, the debate offered voters a rare direct comparison of the candidates' positions ahead of a race drawing national attention for its competitiveness.
Sources:
Sentiment
- South Carolina Mentioned neutrally as the state holding the Senate race.
- Columbia, South Carolina Mentioned neutrally as the debate's location.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as Andrews' party affiliation in a factual, neutral context.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned only as Graham's party affiliation in a factual, neutral context.
- United States Senate Referenced factually as the seat being contested.
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Elections
South Carolina governor candidates set for October debate
PN Team • 1 month ago
Republican nominee Alan Wilson and Democratic nominee Jermaine Johnson have agreed to face off in a live, one-hour debate on Oct. 6 in South Carolina's governor's race. The debate, moderated by WIS anchor Judi Gatson with questions from Gray Media political reporters and anchors across the state, will air from the WIS studios in Columbia and stream across Gray-owned stations and digital platforms in Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, Columbia, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Augusta-Aiken, Charlotte and Savannah.
The race marks South Carolina's first open gubernatorial contest in nearly a decade. Gov. Henry McMaster, who took office after Nikki Haley left to become U.N. Ambassador and won full terms in 2018 and 2022, is term-limited. The November election will determine his successor, making this debate a key early test for both candidates ahead of a race prediction markets are watching closely.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Columbia, South Carolina Named as the host city for the debate, a neutral and mildly positive civic association.
- South Carolina Central to the story as the state holding a notable open gubernatorial race, framed neutrally to positively.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of the Democratic nominee in a neutral factual context.
- Governor of South Carolina Referenced as the office at stake in the election, in a neutral factual context.
- Nikki Haley Mentioned factually regarding her past departure to become U.N. Ambassador.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of the Republican nominee in a neutral factual context.
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Elections
South Carolina GOP lawsuit seeks closed primaries, sparking pushback
PN Team • 1 month ago
The South Carolina Republican Party filed a federal lawsuit on July 8 seeking partisan voter registration and the power to bar voters not registered as Republicans from participating in GOP primaries. Party Chairman Drew McKissick said the move followed the stalling of two closed-primary bills in the General Assembly. On July 29, Veterans for All Voters and The Chamberlain Network filed a motion to intervene, defending the current system that lets any eligible voter participate in taxpayer-funded primaries without party registration.
A Starboard Communications survey found 54 percent of Republican primary voters support keeping open primaries versus 39 percent favoring closed ones, with support spanning the party's coalition. Critics, including veterans' advocates, argue closed primaries would disenfranchise the roughly 195,000 South Carolina veterans who identify as independents, and would concentrate power among party leaders and donors. The case is pending in federal court.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The South Carolina GOP's lawsuit to close primaries is portrayed as controversial and facing pushback from veterans and its own voter base.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the setting for the political and legal dispute, mentioned factually without direct reputational impact.
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