Who Will Win New York’s 21st Congressional District in 2026

Several New York Democrats running in competitive House races are putting distance between themselves and Gov. Kathy Hochul weeks before Election Day. Rep. Tom Suozzi skipped a Hochul campaign stop on Long Island, citing a scheduling conflict, while Rep. Laura Gillen attended. In New York's 17th District, challenger Cait Conley was caught on video agreeing with GOP Rep. Mike Lawler that "Hochul has got to go," later calling Hochul to smooth things over. Blake Gendebien, running in the 21st District, declined to say if he'd support Hochul. Recent Siena polling shows Hochul's favorability underwater and her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman narrowing in suburban and upstate areas, reviving concerns about coattail effects seen in 2022.

The Rockland County Republican Committee received a $138,000 contribution from businessman Jack Goldenberg this year, the largest single donation in the committee's records over two decades, according to state campaign finance filings. The donation lands in a pivotal election cycle, as Rockland County anchors one of the nation's most closely watched House races between Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who also chairs the county GOP, and Democratic challenger Cait Conley.

Goldenberg has limited political giving history but previously donated six figures to national Republican committees. His business dealings have drawn legal scrutiny, including a 2020 wrongful-termination ruling against his company and a Portuguese investigation into alleged market manipulation tied to his pharmaceutical firm, Chartwell Pharmaceuticals. A local Democratic candidate has also tied Goldenberg to a contested warehouse development, which he denies involvement in.

The flap underscores escalating money battles in the Lawler-Conley contest, where Conley reported raising $5 million last quarter and outside groups have already spent more than $20 million on advertising, with Republicans currently holding the spending edge.

Many Republicans facing tough November races are avoiding next week's GOP midterm convention in Dallas, the first held by a major party in over four decades. A POLITICO survey found roughly 45 of more than 70 GOP candidates and members contacted are skipping or undecided, citing scheduling conflicts, high attendance fees, and reluctance to appear alongside President Donald Trump, who is set to headline with Vice President JD Vance. Top leaders including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune plan to attend, along with 2028 hopefuls like Sen. Ted Cruz.

Separately, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is weighing disciplinary action against Reps. Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after the two Democrats helped Republicans pass a procedural rule, prompting a referral to the caucus's rules panel. Other pending items include a bipartisan bill policing lawmaker misconduct, a possible September floor vote on Russia sanctions legislation, and an unresolved GOP split over regulating data centers ahead of the midterms.

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, centered on Omaha and one of just eight districts nationally that backed Kamala Harris in 2024 while electing a Republican to the House, is shaping up as a marquee 2026 midterm contest following Rep. Don Bacon's retirement. Republican Omaha City Councilmember Brinker Harding, who has President Trump's endorsement and backing from House GOP leadership, faces Democratic activist Denise Powell, co-founder of Women Who Run Nebraska, who has campaigned alongside potential 2028 Democratic hopefuls Pete Buttigieg and Rahm Emanuel.

Trump plans to headline a Republican midterm convention in Dallas and has been visiting contested districts to energize the GOP base despite low approval ratings. Democrats, meanwhile, are betting that anxiety over Medicare and affordability, plus backlash to Trump, can flip the historically Republican-held seat, building on a local "Blue Dot" movement. Nebraska has voted Democratic for president only once since 1964, but the district has split its electoral vote three of the last five cycles, making it a rare swing-district test of Trump's midterm influence.

President Donald Trump made his first visit to Syracuse as a sitting president, headlining a rally for Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman ahead of New York's November elections. About 2,500 supporters packed the Oncenter while a roughly equal number of protesters gathered at Clinton Square before marching toward the venue; no arrests or violence were reported. Trump repeated familiar campaign themes, criticizing immigration policy, downplaying climate change, and claiming credit for the Micron Technology project despite the deal predating his second term. He urged supporters to vote as though he were on the ballot.

Notably, many local Republicans skipped the event, including Onondaga County Executive Ryan McMahon and District Attorney Bill Fitzpatrick, reflecting lingering friction after the GOP's historic losses in Central New York last year. Trump's approval rating in New York sits at 34%, and Blakeman trails Gov. Kathy Hochul in every poll. The visit underscored the high stakes of the governor's race and down-ballot congressional contests, as both parties battle for control of Upstate districts and Congress.

A Twin Cities opinion piece by local election official Ken Peterson defends Minnesota's voting system amid DOJ threats to deploy election-day monitors. Peterson notes bipartisan agreement between state GOP and DFL chairs that the system, run by over 30,000 local poll workers, is secure. A federal judge recently blocked DOJ efforts to obtain state voter rolls for DHS review. Minnesota uses paper ballots, certified equipment, and the Statewide Registration System to prevent double voting. Cited fraud cases remain rare: a St. Thomas Law School study found only three noncitizen voting convictions among 13.4 million ballots cast from 2014–2024. Minnesota led the nation in 2024 voter turnout and election administration rankings.

Candidates running for Colorado's 1st Congressional District responded to a Denver Post questionnaire covering cost of living, energy policy, congressional oversight of the Trump administration, and immigration. Responses revealed sharp divides: some candidates called for Medicare for All, a moratorium on new fossil fuel leasing on federal lands, a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and stronger congressional oversight of executive power, spending, and military actions. Others backed the Trump administration's agenda, supporting expanded oil and gas extraction on public lands, cooperation between local jurisdictions and federal immigration enforcement, and opposition to "sanctuary" policies.

A libertarian-leaning candidate called for auditing the Federal Reserve, ending corporate bailouts, returning land-use decisions to state control, and reclaiming congressional war powers, while criticizing both major parties for enabling executive overreach. A physician-candidate emphasized healthcare affordability, housing supply increases, protection of public lands for recreation and conservation, and a secure border paired with fast-tracked legal status for long-term residents. One candidate did not respond to the questionnaire.

Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman met in their only televised debate ahead of New York's gubernatorial election, hosted by NY1. Polling shows Hochul leading by a wide margin, putting pressure on Blakeman to produce a breakout moment while Hochul aims to project gubernatorial competence, particularly on affordability issues like utility bills and cost of living. Blakeman's campaign has leaned into an alliance with President Trump, including a recent joint rally in Syracuse, while Hochul has worked to tie her opponent to the unpopular president. Trump's standing in deep-blue New York remains a central dynamic of the race, amplified by fallout from a recent ICE shooting in Manhattan that has strained relations between the administration and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

The debate followed a separate state attorney general matchup last week between Democratic incumbent Letitia James and GOP challenger Saritha Komatireddy, whose strong performance generated viral attention. Both races are being closely watched as bellwethers heading into the broader midterm cycle.

Gov. Kathy Hochul joined state and local Democratic leaders in Buffalo on Saturday to open a coordinated New York Democrats field campaign office on Seneca Street, part of her re-election push ahead of November's general election. Hochul faces Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, in the race.

At the event, Hochul touted accomplishments from her term, including new school cell phone restrictions, more than $10 billion in tax breaks for families, and utility bill relief checks for New Yorkers. She was joined by Democratic lieutenant governor nominee Adrienne Adams, Congressman Tim Kennedy, Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz, and Erie County Democratic Chairman Jeremy Zellner. The office opening signals an early organizing push in western New York as the campaign ramps up field operations for the fall election.

The Troy City Council in Rensselaer County passed Local Law 3 on October 1, the first measure of its kind in New York to restrict automated license plate reader (ALPR) use by police. The law, proposed by Councilmember Noreen McKee, cuts data retention from 30 days to 72 hours, requires judicial authorization for data sharing, and limits camera searches to felony-related investigations. McKee cited a 60-day review showing nearly all crimes solved using the cameras were resolved within 72 hours.

The New York Civil Liberties Union called it the strongest local ALPR law in the state, noting Troy's camera data had been searched more than 12 million times by outside agencies without legal safeguards. Troy's Republican mayor, Carmella Mantello, says city data isn't shared with federal immigration authorities and has vowed to veto the law, despite a Democratic council majority. The move comes as state lawmakers weigh several bills to impose statewide ALPR oversight, including retention limits, bans on data sales, and new reporting and training requirements, after years of failed attempts dating back to 2015.