New York’s 5th Congressional District House Race 2026
New York’s 5th Congressional District, covering parts of Queens and Nassau County, holds its House election on November 3, 2026. The seat is currently held by Democratic Rep. Gregory Meeks, a longtime incumbent in a historically Democratic-leaning district. Voters will choose between the major-party nominees after primaries determine each party’s candidate.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often hinges on dozens of competitive districts, and incumbency shifts or redistricting changes can alter even traditionally safe seats. A result here feeds into the broader national picture of which party holds the chamber majority in 2027. Local turnout and candidate strength also signal voter sentiment heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate election to a binary question: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win the seat. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength, district partisanship, and turnout dynamics rather than tracking the full field of primary contenders. This framing isolates partisan control of the seat as the single resolving variable, stripping away the noise of campaign news cycles to focus purely on the final outcome.
Total Volume
$58.3k
Kalshi $4k · Polymarket $54.3k
Leading Market
Gregory W. Meeks
Polymarket 98%
Gregory W. Meeks Volume
$25.1k
Polymarket $25.1k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory W. MeeksDemocratic Party | — | — | — | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Gregory W. Meeks on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Gregory MeeksDemocratic Party | 99.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Gregory Meeks on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| George MarshRepublican Party | 2.7¢ | 7.0% | , trade George Marsh on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade George Marsh on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory W. MeeksDemocratic Party | $25,077.80 | No market | |
| Gregory MeeksDemocratic Party | $826.98 | No market | |
| George MarshRepublican Party | $32,428.59 |