Minnesota’s 3rd District House Race 2026
Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District, covering suburbs west and northwest of Minneapolis, holds its House election in November 2026. The district has leaned Democratic in recent cycles but includes competitive suburban precincts that can swing with national political trends. Both parties will contest the seat as part of the broader battle for House control.
Why Markets Are Watching
Suburban districts like MN-03 often serve as bellwethers for shifting voter sentiment among independents and college-educated voters. The outcome here could reflect broader national dynamics heading into the midterms, including reactions to the sitting president’s agenda and economic conditions. A flip or a comfortable hold would send signals about suburban realignment nationwide.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate election to a binary question: which party’s nominee wins the seat. This isolates partisan control as the key variable, stripping out turnout mechanics or candidate-specific storylines until closer to the vote. Traders are effectively weighing how durable the district’s recent partisan lean is against potential shifts in national mood by late 2026.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Minnesota -
Minneapolis–Saint Paul -
Kelly Morrison
Total Volume
$32.6k
Kalshi $1.8k · Polymarket $30.8k
Leading Market
Kelly Morrison
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 99%
Kelly Morrison Volume
$27.9k
Kalshi $1.4k · Polymarket $26.5k
Kelly Morrison 24h Change
-4.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -4.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly MorrisonDemocratic Party | 98.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Kelly Morrison on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Kelly Morrison on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Tyler BassRepublican Party | 3.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Tyler Bass on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade Tyler Bass on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly MorrisonDemocratic Party | $27,874.87 | ||
| Tyler BassRepublican Party | $4,690.06 |