Maryland’s 4th District House Race 2026
Maryland’s 4th Congressional District, covering parts of Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties, heads to the polls in November 2026 to pick its next U.S. House representative. The district has been a reliable Democratic stronghold for decades, built around a majority-Black, suburban Washington electorate. The race will determine who succeeds the current officeholder in a seat rarely contested by Republicans.
Why Markets Are Watching
Safe House seats like MD-04 still matter for party morale, bench-building, and who holds influence in Congress. A competitive primary could signal shifting coalitions within Maryland’s Democratic base, even if the general election outcome isn’t in doubt. National Democrats watch the district as a bellwether for turnout and enthusiasm in reliably blue suburbs.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate race to a binary partisan question: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win the general election. Given the district’s lopsided lean, the market effectively isolates confidence in continuity rather than genuine partisan uncertainty. Traders are really weighing the odds of an upset or disruption against historical precedent in one of the nation’s most predictably blue districts.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Washington, D.C. -
Maryland -
Prince George's County, Maryland -
Anne Arundel County, Maryland -
Glenn Ivey
Total Volume
$39.6k
Kalshi $829.59 · Polymarket $38.8k
Leading Market
Glenn F. Ivey
Polymarket 99%
Glenn F. Ivey Volume
$21.2k
Polymarket $21.2k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenn F. IveyDemocratic Party | — | — | — | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Glenn F. Ivey on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Glenn IveyDemocratic Party | 99.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Glenn Ivey on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| George E. McDermottRepublican Party | — | — | — | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade George E. McDermott on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| George McDermotRepublican Party | 3.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade George McDermot on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glenn F. IveyDemocratic Party | $21,156.00 | No market | |
| Glenn IveyDemocratic Party | $268.31 | No market | |
| George E. McDermottRepublican Party | $17,594.25 | No market | |
| George McDermotRepublican Party | $561.28 | No market |