New Jersey’s 3rd District House Race
New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, covering parts of Burlington and Ocean counties, heads to the polls in November 2026 to choose its next U.S. House representative. The seat has drawn competitive contests in recent cycles as suburban and shore-area voters have shifted between parties. Party nominees will emerge from primaries before the general election determines who represents the district in Washington.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often hinges on a handful of swing districts like NJ-03, where local economic concerns and candidate quality can outweigh national party trends. The outcome here could influence which party sets the legislative agenda in 2027 and beyond. Residents and national observers alike see this race as a bellwether for suburban political sentiment.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a sprawling campaign into a binary question: which party’s nominee wins the general election. That framing isolates partisan control from the noise of individual candidate messaging or local issues. Traders are effectively weighing district demographics, incumbency effects, and broader midterm dynamics to assess which party is favored to hold the seat.
Related terms
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United States House of Representatives -
General election -
Electoral district -
New Jersey -
Ocean County, New Jersey -
Suburbanization -
Burlington County, New Jersey -
Herb Conaway
Total Volume
$49.8k
Kalshi $5.8k · Polymarket $44k
Leading Market
Herb Conaway
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 98%
Herb Conaway Volume
$33.4k
Kalshi $2k · Polymarket $31.4k
Herb Conaway 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herb ConawayDemocratic Party | 97.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Herb Conaway on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Herb Conaway on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Michael McGuireRepublican Party | 3.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Michael McGuire on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Michael P. McguireRepublican Party | — | — | — | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Michael P. Mcguire on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Herb ConawayDemocratic Party | $33,372.78 | ||
| Michael McGuireRepublican Party | $3,876.18 | No market | |
| Michael P. McguireRepublican Party | $12,552.89 | No market |