Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District House Race

Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District has become one of the nation's most closely watched House races. Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, who won the seat in 2024 when it was a Black-opportunity district, now faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques after a court-ordered redistricting process made the district whiter, more rural, and carried by Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024. That shift makes Marques the favorite, but handicappers like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still rate the race "likely" or merely "lean" Republican rather than safe.

Turnout among Black voters in Montgomery, the district's largest population center, is seen as decisive for Figures, while Marques leans on the heavily Republican Wiregrass region and an endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt. Figures leads in cash on hand despite similar overall fundraising totals. One recent partisan poll showed the race tied. Analysts say the outcome could help determine whether Democrats retake the House and could expand a bloc of Southern Republicans elected under newly redrawn, less minority-protective maps.

U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures told the Alabama Democratic Conference that his reelection bid in Alabama's 2nd Congressional District hinges on turnout in Montgomery County and surrounding Black Belt counties. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April weakened part of the Voting Rights Act, allowing Alabama to revert to a 2023 legislative map that removed Figures' hometown of Mobile from the district and extended it into the heavily Republican Wiregrass region. The district's Black voting age population dropped from about 49 percent to just under 40 percent, and the seat would have favored Donald Trump by 14 points in 2024.

Figures, who won the seat in 2024 with 54.6 percent of the vote, faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques. He said Montgomery County, roughly 31 percent of registered voters, could make up 40 percent of turnout with strong mobilization. National Democrats have launched a six-figure ad buy, while Trump and Senate candidate Barry Moore have urged Republicans to turn out for Marques, calling the seat critical to the House majority.

With Alabama's Nov. 3 election 10 days out, forecasters have shifted two marquee races. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the U.S. Senate contest between Republican Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican," citing polls showing Tuberville leading by just over 10 points. Cook Political Report upgraded Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures' odds of retaining his U.S. House seat against Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, moving that race from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican."

The campaigns have grown contentious: Tuberville, also running for governor, released a policy outline and faced backlash over a proposed state-level DOGE effort and comments on pastors and migration; Jones condemned an AI-driven attack page funded by the state GOP. Both House candidates called for a Republican state lawmaker facing human trafficking-related charges to resign.

President Donald Trump drew a large crowd to the Mitchell Center in Mobile, Alabama, returning to the city where he held an early breakout rally during his 2016 campaign. The stop kicked off a broader fall campaign push ahead of the November midterms, with the White House planning near-daily appearances in competitive states.

Trump used the rally to back Senator Tommy Tuberville in his gubernatorial bid against former Democratic Senator Doug Jones, Representative Barry Moore's campaign for Tuberville's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat, and state Representative Rhett Marques, who is running for Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District currently held by Democratic Representative Shomari Figures. Republicans see the seat as a pickup opportunity following redistricting.

Earlier in the day, Governor Kay Ivey and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy broke ground on the $3.2 billion Mobile River Bridge and Bayway project. Strategists noted the rally's location also extends media reach into the conservative Florida Panhandle, reinforcing turnout momentum for Republicans heading into election day.

The U.S. Supreme Court has ended, for now, Missouri's year-long redistricting battle by rejecting the Trump-backed congressional map, clearing the way for the state to use districts drawn in 2022 for the November election. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins directed local election authorities to use the 2022 map after the ruling, following the Missouri Supreme Court's earlier order; Attorney General Catherine Hanaway followed suit. Hoskins had briefly been found in contempt for trying to use the new map before correcting course, and the court imposed no penalty once he complied.

The switch means Missouri could hold its general election under different districts than were used in the August primary, potentially changing candidate choices for roughly a quarter of the state's voters. The dispute centers on a GOP-drawn map targeting Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-area seat, part of a broader Trump-driven redistricting push following similar action in Texas. Gov. Mike Kehoe still hopes the map can be revived, watching the 8th Circuit, which will hear arguments ahead of a Sept. 19 deadline to finalize ballots for overseas military voters. A statewide referendum on the map also remains on the November ballot.

Former Rep. Elaine Luria, the Democrat challenging Rep. Jen Kiggans for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District seat in 2026, has not moved into the district despite promising to do so after 2021 redistricting shifted her Norfolk home into the neighboring 3rd District. A Washington Examiner review of property records found Luria still resides in Norfolk and in 2024 purchased a second home just doors from her original house, also outside the 2nd District's boundaries. Her husband continues to list their original Norfolk address on federal campaign finance filings.

Luria's campaign says she was "deliberately drawn out" of the district after the court-ordered 2021 remap and calls the residency scrutiny a distraction from Kiggans' record. Candidates are constitutionally required only to live within the state, not the specific district. Luria won her August primary in a landslide and faces Kiggans in a rematch of their 2022 race, which Luria lost narrowly. The contest is rated a toss-up and is seen as pivotal to Democrats' efforts to retake the House majority.

Control of the U.S. House this fall hinges on a map of roughly three dozen to 50 competitive races, with Democrats needing a net gain of just three seats to win the majority. Historically, the president's party has gained House seats in a midterm only twice since 1946, and Democrats are favored by generic-ballot polling and President Trump's low approval ratings, though analysts note Republican gerrymandering has made more Democratic-held seats competitive, offsetting some of that advantage. GOP leaders point to legislative wins and plan to tie Democrats to the party's left flank.

Key races include New York's 17th District (Mike Lawler vs. Cait Conley), Long Island's 3rd and 4th Districts, New Jersey's 7th, Ohio's 9th and 7th, California's 22nd and 48th, Arizona's 1st, and Virginia's 2nd. A House flip would make Hakeem Jeffries speaker and could block Trump's agenda while enabling investigative oversight.

Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones escalated their fight for Alabama governor this week, trading accusations over socialism, public education and public safety. In a Mobile radio interview, Tuberville labeled Democrats socialists, tied Jones to figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Zohran Mamdani and Stacey Abrams, and called public schools "government schools" that fail to teach basics while defending the CHOOSE Act as a way to force competition. Jones rejected the socialist label, pointed to his record passing bipartisan bills in the Senate, and said he would phase out the CHOOSE Act to redirect funding to public schools.

Jones also renewed his push for a debate, accusing Tuberville of avoiding unscripted questions, a challenge Tuberville did not accept, instead citing his 2020 Senate win over Jones. On crime, Tuberville pledged more troopers and "law and order" without naming specific communities, while Jones countered by emphasizing his experience as a federal prosecutor. Abrams is set to campaign with Jones in Huntsville, fueling Tuberville's effort to nationalize the race.

The U.S. Postal Service says the Akron, Alabama Post Office will permanently close Oct. 31, citing non-renewal of its lease. The facility was abruptly shut on Oct. 14, 16 days earlier than residents had been told, prompting Rep. Terri Sewell to demand answers and reopening. Sewell disputes USPS's account, saying the lessor denied issuing any vacate notice and had agreed to extend the lease through 2031. Her office says the post office was dismantled within 24 hours, with P.O. boxes removed and no guidance given to customers, raising concerns about absentee ballots, Social Security checks and other mail ahead of local election deadlines. Operations shift to Moundville on Nov. 1; a mobile unit serves Akron in the interim.

Former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman is launching a podcast to tell his side of the story behind his 2006 bribery conviction and six years in federal prison. Co-hosted with Nick Collado, the podcast will cover the 2002 election he narrowly lost, his subsequent prosecution, and the trial that ended his political career. It will be available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube.

Siegelman, a Democrat, served one term as governor from 1999 to 2003 and is the only person in Alabama history to hold the offices of attorney general, secretary of state, lieutenant governor, and governor. He conceded the 2002 race to Republican Bob Riley amid disputed ballots in Baldwin County. In 2006, he and HealthSouth founder Richard Scrushy were convicted on bribery charges tied to a $500,000 campaign contribution allegedly exchanged for a health board appointment. Siegelman was sentenced to 78 months and released on house arrest in 2017. He has consistently maintained his innocence and regained his law license in 2021.