Maryland’s 7th Congressional District: Who Wins the 2026 House Race?
Maryland’s 7th Congressional District, anchored in Baltimore and parts of surrounding counties, heads to voters on November 3, 2026, to choose its next U.S. House representative. The seat has been reliably Democratic for decades, but every cycle brings fresh candidates, primary contests, and shifts in turnout that shape the final margin.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House majority often comes down to dozens of individual district outcomes, even in seats considered safe for one party. Maryland’s 7th matters as a gauge of Democratic turnout strength in an urban, heavily Black constituency during a midterm year that will test national political momentum. Local economic conditions and candidate quality could still influence the margin.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate general election into a binary question: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win outright? That framing isolates partisan control from the noise of primary fields, fundraising totals, and local campaign coverage. Traders are effectively weighing historical partisan lean against any signs of an unusual swing, treating the district as a data point for broader midterm sentiment rather than a standalone contest.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States midterm election -
Maryland -
Baltimore -
Kweisi Mfume -
Maryland's 7th congressional district
Total Volume
$21.5k
Kalshi $468.00 · Polymarket $21k
Leading Market
Kweisi Mfume
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 99%
Kweisi Mfume Volume
$2.1k
Kalshi $119.00 · Polymarket $2k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kweisi MfumeDemocratic Party | 99.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Kweisi Mfume on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Kweisi Mfume on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Scott CollierRepublican Party | 1.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Scott Collier on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Scott M. CollierRepublican Party | — | — | — | 2.0¢ | 5% | , trade Scott M. Collier on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweisi MfumeDemocratic Party | $2,099.00 | ||
| Scott CollierRepublican Party | $349.00 | No market | |
| Scott M. CollierRepublican Party | $19,011.00 | No market |