Missouri’s 1st Congressional District House Race Winner
Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, anchored in St. Louis, holds its 2026 House election to determine who represents the seat in Washington. The district has long been a safe Democratic stronghold, but redistricting changes and candidate dynamics have put the race on watchlists. Primary contests will shape the field before voters decide the general election winner.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to margins in individual districts, and shifts in historically safe seats can signal broader national trends. St. Louis-area redistricting and demographic changes have made some observers question whether this seat remains as uncontested as before. The outcome also affects which party holds sway over committee assignments and legislative priorities tied to this specific district.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is simple: which party, and ultimately which candidate, wins the general election for this seat. Separate contracts isolate individual candidates within each party, letting participants express views on primary outcomes as well as the final result. This structure captures both intraparty competition and the broader partisan contest in a single tradeable framework.
Related terms
Total Volume
$72.3k
Kalshi $4.7k · Polymarket $67.6k
Leading Market
Wesley Bell
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 98%
Wesley Bell Volume
$32.1k
Kalshi $2.5k · Polymarket $29.7k
Wesley Bell 24h Change
-0.20%
Kalshi -0.20% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley BellDemocratic Party | 99.3¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Paul BerryRepublican Party | 1.9¢ | 7.0% |
|
2.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Supreme Court Rejects Trump-Backed Missouri Map, Reverting to 2022 Districts
PN Team • 2 months ago
The U.S. Supreme Court has ended, for now, Missouri's year-long redistricting battle by rejecting the Trump-backed congressional map, clearing the way for the state to use districts drawn in 2022 for the November election. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins directed local election authorities to use the 2022 map after the ruling, following the Missouri Supreme Court's earlier order; Attorney General Catherine Hanaway followed suit. Hoskins had briefly been found in contempt for trying to use the new map before correcting course, and the court imposed no penalty once he complied.
The switch means Missouri could hold its general election under different districts than were used in the August primary, potentially changing candidate choices for roughly a quarter of the state's voters. The dispute centers on a GOP-drawn map targeting Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-area seat, part of a broader Trump-driven redistricting push following similar action in Texas. Gov. Mike Kehoe still hopes the map can be revived, watching the 8th Circuit, which will hear arguments ahead of a Sept. 19 deadline to finalize ballots for overseas military voters. A statewide referendum on the map also remains on the November ballot.
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP-drawn map targeting a Democratic seat was rejected, reflecting a setback for Republican redistricting efforts.
- Donald Trump The Trump-backed map was rejected by the Supreme Court, portraying a legal defeat for his redistricting push.
- Democratic Party (United States) The ruling reverts to a map more favorable to Democratic Rep. Cleaver's seat, a mild positive for the party.
- Texas Referenced as part of the broader Trump-driven redistricting push, a mildly negative association with partisan gerrymandering efforts.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned tangentially as the body whose composition is affected by redistricting, without direct reputational implications.
- Kansas City, Missouri Mentioned as the location of the contested congressional seat, a factual geographic reference.
- Missouri Central to the factual redistricting dispute without inherent reputational judgment on the state itself.
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Elections
Supreme Court blocks Missouri’s new congressional map, sending redistricting fight to voters
PN Team • 1 month ago
The U.S. Supreme Court blocked Missouri from using a Republican-drawn 2025 congressional map in November, requiring the state to instead use the map adopted in 2022. The ruling caps a monthslong dispute triggered by a national redistricting push, following mid-decade map changes in Texas and Ohio favoring Republicans and California's Democratic-leaning response. Missouri's 2025 map, passed in May, would have added a Republican-leaning seat by reshaping Kansas City's District 5, held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, and tightening District 2, held by Republican Ann Wagner.
Because primaries were held under the 2025 map while the general election reverts to 2022 lines, Republicans Bob Onder and Rick Brattin have sued, arguing voters' rights are harmed; the Eighth Circuit was set to hear arguments. Missouri's Supreme Court separately found Secretary of State Denny Hoskins in contempt for trying to use the blocked map, though he avoided sanction after complying. Voters will ultimately decide the matter through Proposition A, a ballot measure asking whether to adopt the 2025 map or keep the 2022 lines, with implications for other states' redistricting plans.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Missouri Missouri is central to the redistricting dispute, portrayed as embroiled in legal and political conflict.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican Party's redistricting push was blocked by the Supreme Court, a mild setback to its political goals.
- California California mentioned factually as a comparison point in the national redistricting context.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic Party mentioned as beneficiary/context in redistricting fight without strong positive or negative framing.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City is referenced as the district reshaped by the blocked map, a neutral factual mention.
- Ohio Ohio mentioned factually as part of the broader national redistricting trend.
- Texas Texas mentioned factually as part of the broader national redistricting trend.
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Elections
Missouri redistricting fight escalates as voters sue Hoskins for $80 million
PN Team • 2 months ago
Missouri's congressional map dispute continues even after two Supreme Court setbacks for Republicans. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins conceded during a contempt hearing and reverted to the state's 2022 congressional map after the Missouri Supreme Court unanimously found he improperly blocked a citizen referendum, which had gathered roughly 300,000 signatures, to suspend the GOP's 2025 map. That map would have shifted the delegation from 6-2 to 7-1 Republican.
Five Missouri voters have since sued Hoskins, seeking roughly $80 million in damages on behalf of about 162,000 people whose referendum signatures were verified, alleging he violated statutory duties by improperly rejecting the petition and repeatedly directing election authorities to use the invalid 2025 map.
Republicans, including Rep. Bob Onder, Gov. Mike Kehoe, and Hoskins, are still pursuing the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which has expedited briefing ahead of the Sept. 19 overseas ballot deadline. Legal scholars note the Supreme Court's stay effectively controls the outcome regardless of the appeals court's ruling, with broader implications for the 2026 midterm balance of power.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans, including Hoskins, Onder, and Kehoe, are portrayed as pursuing a redistricting map that courts found improperly blocked a citizen referendum.
- Missouri Missouri is the setting of the legal and political dispute, portrayed neutrally as the state involved.
- United States House of Representatives The House delegation balance is discussed factually as the stakes of the redistricting dispute.
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Congress
Missouri’s Mid-Decade Redistricting Fight Heads to a Public Vote
PN Team • 2 months ago
Missouri has become a flashpoint in the national battle over congressional redistricting ahead of the midterms. Last year, at President Trump's urging, the Republican-led state legislature redrew congressional boundaries mid-decade to weaken Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver by extending his Kansas City-based district deep into rural, conservative territory.
A grassroots petition drive and subsequent legal challenges halted implementation of the new map. The Missouri Supreme Court ruled that any change to district lines must first be approved by voters in a public referendum, and the U.S. Supreme Court declined to intervene on Republicans' behalf. As a result, the original 2022 congressional map will appear on the November ballot, though Republicans are pursuing further legal avenues to overturn that outcome. The fight reflects broader nationwide efforts by both parties to reshape district lines mid-decade as they jockey for control of Congress.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are depicted as pursuing a mid-decade redistricting scheme to weaken a Democratic incumbent, which was blocked by courts, casting them in a manipulative light.
- Donald Trump Trump is cited as urging the redistricting effort aimed at weakening a Democratic congressman, portraying him as instigating a partisan power grab.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as the target of redistricting efforts but ultimately prevail in court, a mixed but slightly favorable outcome.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City is mentioned as the district's base affected by the redistricting dispute, a neutral factual reference.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the institutional context for the redistricting fight, without direct reputational implication.
- Missouri Missouri is the central setting of the redistricting battle, described factually as the site of political and legal conflict.
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Elections
Missouri marks 26 years since Gov. Mel Carnahan’s fatal plane crash
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Friday marks 26 years since the Oct. 16, 2000, plane crash that killed Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan, his son Randy and campaign advisor Chris Sifford. The Cessna, piloted by Randy, went down near Hillsboro, Missouri, en route to a campaign event as Carnahan — then the Democratic Senate nominee challenging incumbent Republican John Ashcroft — campaigned in the race's final weeks. A 2002 NTSB brief attributed the crash to spatial disorientation, attitude indicator problems and poor weather. Lt. Gov. Roger B. Wilson was sworn in as governor two days later once the deaths were confirmed, and memorials drew thousands to Jefferson City, including President Clinton and Vice President Gore.
With the ballot deadline already passed, Wilson pledged to appoint Carnahan's widow, Jean, to the Senate if her late husband won. On Nov. 7, 2000, Carnahan defeated Ashcroft, becoming the first candidate to win a U.S. Senate seat posthumously. Jean Carnahan was sworn in on Jan. 3, 2001, cementing the family's legacy of public service.
Sources:
Sentiment
- United States Senate The Senate seat is central to the historic posthumous election and Jean Carnahan's subsequent appointment, a mildly notable institutional mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned factually as Carnahan's party affiliation with no particular evaluative framing.
- Missouri Missouri is the setting for the historic events described, a neutral contextual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned factually as Ashcroft's party, with no particular reputational framing.
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Elections
Ohio Governor Candidates Split on Abortion Policy Ahead of 2026 Race
PN Team • 6 days ago
Ohio's 2026 governor's race could shape how the state's voter-approved reproductive-rights amendment is implemented, since the governor appoints health officials, directs funding, and decides how vigorously to defend abortion restrictions in court. Democrat Amy Acton supports abortion rights and pledges to protect the 2023 amendment while expanding access to contraception and IVF, though she has offered few policy specifics. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who did not respond to questions, has previously called himself "unapologetically pro-life" and backed six-week abortion bans during his 2024 presidential run, but has not detailed an Ohio agenda. Libertarian Don Kissick opposes both abortion bans and government efforts to expand abortion access, arguing government should stay out of the issue entirely.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Vivek Ramaswamy Criticized for not responding to questions and vague on his Ohio agenda despite past strict abortion stance.
- Amy Acton Portrayed as supporting abortion rights, though criticized for lacking policy specifics.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as Amy Acton's party affiliation, with no additional commentary.
- Republican Party (United States) Associated with Ramaswamy's restrictive abortion stance without direct criticism of the party itself.
- Ohio Central setting of the gubernatorial race and abortion policy debate, described factually.
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Elections
Missouri’s Amendment 8 would limit how sheriffs can be removed from office
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Missouri voters will decide on Amendment 8, a constitutional measure that largely mirrors existing state law requiring most counties to elect their sheriffs, while exempting St. Louis, St. Louis County and St. Charles County, where sheriffs are appointed. The measure's key change is to the removal process: sheriffs could only be removed via a writ of quo warranto, a legal challenge to a person's right to hold office, and only the state attorney general — not local circuit attorneys or county prosecutors — could initiate that process. A judge would ultimately decide whether a sheriff should be removed, based on grounds such as unlawful election, abuse of authority, corruption, fraud or neglect of duty.
The measure passed the Missouri House and Senate largely along party lines. Supporters say it protects elected sheriffs from future legislative interference, while some Democratic opponents object to undefined language requiring sheriffs to apprehend "traitors" and warn the change could shift power away from local prosecutors toward the attorney general.
Sources:
Sentiment
Related Events
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Elections
Missouri Supreme Court blocks Trump-backed congressional map, orders statewide vote
PN Team • 2 months ago
The Missouri Supreme Court unanimously blocked new Republican-drawn congressional districts, backed by Donald Trump, from taking effect in the November election and ordered a statewide referendum on whether to uphold or reject the map. Though used in the August primary, the map cannot be used again unless voters approve it; the 2022 map remains in effect for the midterms otherwise. The court ruled that a constitutional provision allowing referendums on "any act" of the Legislature applies to congressional redistricting, overturning Secretary of State Denny Hoskins' rejection of a petition backed by over 300,000 signatures.
The map had targeted the 5th Congressional District held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, stretching it into rural Republican territory. Attorney General Catherine Hanaway and Gov. Mike Kehoe called the ruling an unprecedented constitutional crisis and vowed an immediate appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court; Trump called it a "Dark Day" for Missouri. Hoskins vowed to keep fighting, while Democrats and redistricting advocates celebrated the decision as a rare setback in Trump's nationwide mid-decade redistricting push spanning more than a dozen states ahead of the midterms.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's backed map was blocked and he called the ruling a 'Dark Day,' framing him as suffering a political setback.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-drawn map was blocked by the court as unconstitutional, a setback for the party's redistricting push.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats celebrated the ruling as a rare win against Republican-led redistricting efforts.
- United States House of Representatives The dispute concerns congressional districts and representation but the body itself is only tangentially referenced.
- Missouri Missouri is the setting of the political and legal dispute without a clear reputational judgment on the state itself.
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Elections
Missouri’s Trump-backed congressional map heads to Supreme Court for third time
PN Team • 1 month ago
Missouri's congressional redistricting fight has returned to the U.S. Supreme Court for a third time after the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the state must use its 2025 Republican-drawn map in November, reversing the Missouri Supreme Court decision that had reinstated the 2022 districts pending a voter referendum. The appeals court paused its own order to give the justices a narrow window to intervene again after twice previously blocking use of the new map, with a ruling expected soon.
The 2025 map, backed by President Trump, reshapes Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based district and could give Republicans seven of Missouri's eight House seats. With absentee voting underway, county election officials say they are following the most recent court order and currently using the 2022 map, but face confusion over what happens to ballots already cast if the Supreme Court later orders a switch. Election clerks note a voter's ballot could still count even if their U.S. House selection is voided. Regardless of the outcome, a referendum on the new districts will still appear on the ballot for future elections.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump-backed map advancing toward implementation reflects a political win for him.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-drawn map could give the party seven of eight Missouri House seats, a favorable political outcome.
- Missouri Missouri is the central location of the redistricting dispute, described factually.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced only tangentially as the body whose seats are at stake in redistricting.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is mentioned factually as the body whose Missouri seats are being redrawn.
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Elections
Missouri judge clears Trump-backed House map for November election
PN Team • 2 months ago
Cole County Circuit Judge Daniel Green ruled that Missouri's new, Trump-backed congressional map can be used in November's elections, rejecting a bid by the coalition People Not Politicians to force a statewide referendum on the redrawn districts. Green sided with Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and GOP officials, finding the state constitution does not extend referendum rights to congressional redistricting and that swapping maps after the August primary would violate federal law. Opponents, including PNP director Richard von Glahn, immediately vowed to appeal to the Missouri Supreme Court, which upheld the map in May without ruling on referendum eligibility. Republicans, including Gov. Mike Kehoe and RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, celebrated the decision.
The map reshapes Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based 5th District, pushing roughly 59% of its voters into new, rural Republican-leaning territory, and is expected to shrink Missouri's Democratic House delegation from two seats to one. The push, prompted by Trump's call for GOP-led states to redraw lines ahead of the midterms, has spurred litigation nationwide as Republicans and Democrats race to lock in favorable maps in states including Texas, North Carolina, California, and Utah, with control of the House at stake.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party stands to lose a House seat in Missouri due to the redrawn map, a clear political setback.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans successfully defended their favorable redistricting map and gained a likely additional House seat, with officials celebrating the ruling.
- Donald Trump Trump's push for the redistricting effort succeeded in this ruling, favorably advancing his political agenda.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City's district was redrawn to dilute Democratic voting power, negatively affecting the area's political representation.
- Missouri Missouri is the central setting of a contentious redistricting fight with mixed political implications for the state.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned only as the body whose control is at stake nationally, without direct reputational impact.
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