Florida’s 27th Congressional District House Race
Florida’s 27th Congressional District, covering parts of Miami-Dade County, heads to the polls in the 2026 midterms to elect its U.S. House representative. The seat has been a competitive battleground in recent cycles, with Miami’s diverse electorate shaping outcomes. Both major parties are expected to field candidates as part of the broader fight for House control.
Why Markets Are Watching
South Florida’s political landscape has shifted notably in recent years, with Miami-Dade trending toward Republicans after decades of Democratic strength. The outcome in FL-27 offers a signal on whether that realignment holds or reverses. It also factors into the national battle for House control, where a handful of competitive districts could decide the majority.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is binary: which party’s nominee wins the district. Separate contracts isolate individual named candidates, letting traders express views on primary outcomes ahead of the general election. As filings and polling develop, the market effectively tracks how durable Miami-Dade’s rightward shift is against Democratic efforts to reclaim ground in South Florida.
Related terms
Total Volume
$177.9k
Kalshi $158.3k · Polymarket $19.7k
Leading Market
María Elvira Salazar
Kalshi 66% · Polymarket 66%
María Elvira Salazar Volume
$68k
Kalshi $63.9k · Polymarket $4.2k
María Elvira Salazar 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi -1.00% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| María Elvira SalazarRepublican Party | 66.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
66.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Eliott RodriguezDemocratic Party | 36.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
36.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Miami Republican María Elvira Salazar draws backlash over Trump immigration ad
PN Team • 1 month ago
Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a Miami Republican, is facing pushback after releasing a campaign ad filmed outside the White House urging President Trump to soften immigration enforcement, warning his policies are hurting the GOP's standing with Latino voters. Many voters in her heavily Hispanic, majority-immigrant district say their support for Trump remains firm even as their confidence in Salazar has slipped, with some accusing her of political self-preservation and poor timing rather than genuine conviction.
Salazar faces Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez, a fellow former TV anchor, in a district Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2024 but which analysts now describe as competitive. Trump publicly criticized Salazar's ad but stopped short of harsher attacks he's aimed at other GOP critics; Salazar later said she had a "fantastic" follow-up conversation with him. The district has been heavily affected by immigration enforcement, with many Venezuelan, Haitian, Cuban and Nicaraguan residents losing humanitarian parole and TPS protections. The Cook Political Report still rates the race "likely Republican," though Democrats point to a fundraising surge for Rodriguez.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP is depicted as losing standing with Latino voters due to Trump's immigration policies.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are shown gaining momentum via a fundraising surge and a competitive challenger, casting the party favorably.
- Donald Trump Trump's immigration policies are described as hurting the GOP and he is shown publicly criticizing an ally, though he softened his response.
- Florida Florida is mentioned only as the geographic setting for the district.
- Miami Miami is mentioned as Salazar's district location without additional reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as the institutional context for Salazar's role as a representative.
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Congress
Florida Republican Salazar breaks with Trump over immigration crackdown
PN Team • 1 month ago
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) released a new campaign ad, filmed in D.C. and running in South Florida, accusing President Trump of going "too far" with immigration enforcement, warning that Hispanic voters who helped elect him in 2024 now "feel betrayed." Citing ICE data showing half of detainees had no criminal convictions or pending charges, she urged Trump to "be careful" about his advisers' guidance and compared his potential legacy to Lincoln's on slavery and Reagan's on communism. Salazar said she does not seek amnesty but a "dignified life" for immigrants, tying her message to her bipartisan Dignity Act (also called the DIGNIDAD Act), which would offer legal status to long-term undocumented immigrants without criminal records, updated with Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) in July. The ad comes just seven weeks before her reelection contest in a Miami-Dade district Democrats hope to flip.
The rare intra-party rebuke comes amid GOP anxiety that aggressive enforcement, including a troubled Minneapolis surge tied to two deaths, could erode Republican gains with Hispanic voters ahead of the midterms. Salazar's district, roughly 74% Hispanic, swung sharply toward Trump in 2024, helping him flip Miami-Dade County red for the first time since the 1980s, after leaning far narrower in 2020, but polling now shows Latino support swinging back toward Democrats nationally. She faces Democrat Elliot Rodriguez, a fellow Cuban-American and former TV anchor, who dismissed her ad as political opportunism; the race has reportedly tightened. Trump has shown no sign of softening his enforcement approach despite the warning.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Minneapolis Minneapolis is linked to a troubled immigration enforcement surge tied to two deaths, casting it negatively in context.
- Donald Trump Trump is criticized by a fellow Republican for going too far on immigration enforcement, risking voter backlash and legacy comparisons to negative historical figures.
- Republican Party (United States) The piece highlights intra-party anxiety and rebuke over Trump's immigration crackdown eroding Hispanic support.
- United States The United States is the backdrop for national immigration policy debate, mentioned neutrally.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats hope to flip the district, portrayed neutrally as a political opportunity.
- Miami-Dade County, Florida Miami-Dade County is cited as a swing area politically, described factually without strong reputational framing.
- Florida Florida is the location of Salazar's district, mentioned factually.
- South Florida South Florida is mentioned as where the ad is running, a neutral factual detail.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as the chamber where Salazar and Escobar serve, factually noted.
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Elections
Salazar releases campaign ad criticizing Trump immigration enforcement
PN Team • 1 month ago
Miami Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar released a campaign ad criticizing President Trump's immigration enforcement, saying some efforts "have gone too far" and warning him to be wary of his advisers' counsel. The ad, filmed in Washington, cites ICE data claiming half of detainees have no criminal convictions or pending charges, pushing back on the administration's "worst of the worst" messaging. It comes seven weeks before Salazar faces re-election in Florida's 27th District, a Miami-Dade seat that is roughly 74% Hispanic and that Trump won with 57% of the vote in 2024, and which Democrats hope to flip.
Trump has repeatedly endorsed Salazar's re-election. Her Democratic challenger, former news anchor Elliot Rodriguez, called the ad political opportunism, noting her prior votes to fund ICE. Salazar has long pushed a bipartisan immigration overhaul, the Dignity Act, which has drawn little Republican support and accusations of amnesty advocacy. The ad's digital targeting reportedly excludes several coastal zip codes that favored Kamala Harris in 2024.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's immigration enforcement is directly criticized in the ad as having "gone too far," casting him in a negative light.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as hoping to flip the district, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP is mentioned as offering little support for Salazar's immigration bill, a mildly negative but minor detail.
- United States House of Representatives Salazar's House seat and re-election race are central to the story but described neutrally.
- Miami Miami is mentioned only as Salazar's home base, a neutral geographic detail.
- Miami-Dade County, Florida Miami-Dade County is described factually as the district's location and demographic makeup.
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Local & State
North Miami bus route cuts leave residents stranded amid apartment boom
PN Team • 2 months ago
Miami Herald readers this week raised concerns over Miami-Dade's "Better Bus Network" overhaul, which eliminated most bus routes serving North Miami, North Miami Beach, Biscayne Park and the Omni area, leaving only Route 9 in place. Residents say they now face walks of up to a mile to reach transit, even as roughly 1,000 new apartment units are under construction nearby, raising questions about how car-less residents will reach jobs, groceries and medical care.
The same letters section also featured reader reactions on unrelated topics, including a call for Congress to pass the Recycled Materials Attribution Act to standardize recycling claims as Miami-Dade landfills near capacity, criticism of federal deportation policy and immigration enforcement funding, debate over the definition of socialism, reactions to Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar's Vatican visit, praise for the Miami Herald's Epstein investigation coverage, and a proposal for genetic eligibility testing in women's professional basketball.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Miami-Dade County, Florida Miami-Dade County is criticized for the bus network overhaul that stranded residents and for landfill capacity issues.
- Miami Miami is referenced as the location of the Herald and general context, largely neutral.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned neutrally as the body being urged to pass recycling legislation.
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Elections
Florida Republican Salazar breaks with Trump over immigration enforcement
PN Team • 1 month ago
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) publicly broke with President Donald Trump on immigration policy, saying in a new advertisement that some enforcement efforts have "gone too far." Salazar represents a heavily Hispanic South Florida district including Miami and has been an outspoken critic of mass deportations, having championed a bipartisan immigration reform bill this Congress.
The break signals ongoing friction within the Republican Party over immigration enforcement tactics as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Salazar's district includes many immigrant and Hispanic voters who could be affected by aggressive deportation policies, making her stance politically significant heading into her reelection campaign. Her comments highlight a broader divide among Republicans representing diverse, immigrant-heavy districts versus the administration's hardline enforcement approach, a tension likely to influence legislative debates and electoral dynamics in competitive House races.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's immigration enforcement is criticized by a fellow Republican as having gone too far, casting his policy in a negative light.
- Republican Party (United States) The story highlights internal Republican Party friction over immigration enforcement heading into midterms.
- Miami Miami is referenced as part of Salazar's district, a neutral geographic detail.
- Florida Florida is mentioned as Salazar's state but is not itself portrayed positively or negatively.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as context for Salazar's legislative efforts, a neutral factual reference.
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Miami adult entertainment figure Leroy Griffith dies at 94
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Leroy Griffith, the Miami businessman known for decades as South Florida's "adult theater king," died peacefully at his Miami home on Oct. 3 at age 94, his family said. Born in 1932 in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, Griffith entered show business as a teenager selling candy at St. Louis burlesque shows and later managed theaters across the Midwest before settling in Miami in the early 1960s. He built a chain of burlesque and X-rated film venues across Florida and beyond, best known for Club Madonna in Miami Beach and the Pussycat Theater in Miami.
His career was marked by repeated clashes with regulators and police, including efforts to circumvent nudity and liquor ordinances, dozens of police raids, and a 2013 incident involving a trafficked minor performing at Club Madonna, for which Griffith was never charged. He famously bought back his own foreclosed theater at a courthouse auction. Griffith outlasted 17 Miami Beach mayors and 16 city managers during his decades-long run. He is survived by his wife, four children, and several grandchildren.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Miami Miami is the factual setting where Griffith lived, died, and built his business empire.
- South Florida South Florida is referenced as the broader region where Griffith earned his reputation as the 'adult theater king.'
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Elections
Salazar touts Colombian president’s endorsement amid rift with Trump
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Rep. María Elvira Salazar, R-Fla., is facing a tightening re-election race in her heavily Hispanic Miami-area district and has picked up an endorsement from Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, a Trump ally who called her "Colombia's best friend in U.S. Congress." De la Espriella and his wife have previously donated nearly $90,000 to Salazar's campaigns. The endorsement follows Salazar's public break with President Trump last month over immigration enforcement, which she said had "gone too far," drawing Trump's public criticism and social media attacks. She also recently received an endorsement from Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado.
Salazar's district is more than 74% Hispanic and has swung sharply between parties in past presidential elections. She faces Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, a former television anchor, in a race that forecasters have shifted toward Democrats and that national Democratic campaign groups are now targeting for a potential flip. Rodriguez has focused his campaign on local economic concerns rather than foreign endorsements.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is shown publicly criticizing and attacking a fellow Republican, reflecting internal party conflict.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are gaining ground and targeting this seat as a potential flip, a modest political win.
- María Elvira Salazar Salazar gains notable endorsements despite facing a tough re-election and political fallout with Trump.
- Republican Party (United States) The race highlights internal GOP tension between Salazar and Trump amid a tightening re-election battle.
- United States Congress Mentioned only as the body Salazar serves in, a neutral factual reference.
- Florida Florida is mentioned as the location of Salazar's district, a neutral factual detail.
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Elections
Operative tied to Florida’s 2020 “ghost candidate” scandal targets AG hopeful with misleading texts
PN Team • 1 week ago
Alex Alvarado, a GOP operative implicated in Florida's 2020 "ghost candidate" scheme, is now sending text messages suggesting Democratic attorney general candidate Jose Javier Rodríguez won't "defend reproductive freedom." The texts, funded through a newly registered committee called Lower Our Costs Now, cite a 2015 abortion bill vote Rodríguez missed on the floor but later recorded a "no" vote on afterward. Rodríguez's campaign calls the ads misleading and notes his Planned Parenthood endorsement. Alvarado, an early donor to incumbent Attorney General James Uthmeier, was previously tied to 2020 efforts—some resulting in convictions—to siphon votes from Democrats using decoy independent candidates, including a scheme that helped defeat Rodríguez's state Senate bid.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) A GOP operative tied to a vote-rigging scandal is running misleading attacks, reflecting poorly on the party.
- Florida Florida is the setting for the ghost candidate scandal and misleading political ads, a reputationally negative context.
- Independent politician Decoy independent candidates were used in a vote-siphoning scheme, casting the term in a manipulative light.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidate Rodríguez is targeted by misleading texts, a tangential negative mention for the party.
- Florida Senate Rodríguez's prior state Senate bid, defeated via a ghost candidate scheme, is referenced tangentially.
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Elections
Hope Florida ruling intensifies political fallout as 2026 governor’s race heats up
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
A Florida appeals court sharply criticized a Tallahassee grand jury's report on the Hope Florida charity, ordering it expunged and finding that jurors improperly accused individuals of criminal conduct while violating confidentiality rules. Gov. Ron DeSantis responded by calling for prosecutions of whoever leaked the report, while Democrats continue pressing for investigations into his administration. The ruling has elevated Hope Florida as a campaign issue ahead of next month's election, with gubernatorial candidates Byron Donalds (R) and David Jolly (D) both campaigning amid Hurricane Isaias recovery efforts that have left thousands without power.
Separately, Florida's attorney general race is drawing national attention after Democratic candidate José Javier Rodríguez received a $5 million injection from a national party group, the largest such donation to a statewide Florida candidate this cycle, aimed at unseating appointed Republican AG James Uthmeier. Uthmeier is also pushing for added restrictions on Meta after rejecting a multi-state settlement. Meanwhile, documents tied to a 2021 "ghost candidate" scandal are resurfacing in Florida Power & Light's merger talks with Dominion Energy.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tallahassee, Florida Tallahassee is tied to the grand jury report that was criticized and ordered expunged.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican figures DeSantis and Uthmeier face scrutiny over the grand jury report and a contested AG race.
- Byron Donalds Byron Donalds is mentioned simply as a gubernatorial candidate campaigning, a neutral factual reference.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are pressing for investigations and backing a well-funded AG candidate, a modestly favorable political positioning.
- Florida Florida is the setting for multiple political controversies including the Hope Florida scandal and AG race.
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Elections
DHS rejects Florida Senate nominee Angie Nixon’s claims of racial profiling by ICE
PN Team • 2 months ago
Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon drew a sharp rebuke from the Department of Homeland Security after saying Republicans were "literally trying to kill" black Americans and calling ICE a "weaponized paramilitary force" designed to terrorize people. Nixon made the remarks on a podcast this month, days before winning her primary, citing a September 2025 ICE operation in Chicago's South Shore neighborhood that targeted suspected Tren de Aragua members and resulted in roughly two dozen detentions.
DHS called the racial-profiling allegations "categorically FALSE," saying immigration status—not race—drives enforcement, and cited a sharp rise in reported assaults, vehicular attacks, and death threats against agents. The Republican National Committee argued Nixon's comments would help GOP candidates nationally. Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member, defeated former National Security Council official Alexander Vindman by 12 points in a lopsided primary upset despite being vastly outspent and lacking backing from Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or the DSA, winning most major metro areas including Miami-Dade and Broward. Since winning, she has distanced herself from the socialist label despite her DSA membership, denying she supports abolishing police funding or open borders. She now faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the remainder of Marco Rubio's former Senate term, in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The RNC's comment suggests Nixon's remarks help Republicans politically, a favorable framing for the GOP.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic nominee's inflammatory remarks and internal party divisions reflect mildly negatively on the party.
- Ashley Moody Moody is mentioned as the favored Republican opponent in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.
- Broward County, Florida Broward County is noted as an area Nixon won, a neutral factual mention.
- Miami Miami-Dade is mentioned as an area Nixon won, a neutral factual detail.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez AOC is mentioned only as a prominent figure who did not back Nixon, a neutral/tangential reference.
- Bernie Sanders Sanders is mentioned only as someone who did not endorse Nixon, a neutral tangential mention.
- Chicago Chicago is mentioned as the location of the ICE operation cited by Nixon, a factual reference.
- Florida Florida is the factual setting for the Senate race and political controversy.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is mentioned factually as the context of the race.
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