Florida’s 23rd Congressional District House Race Winner
Florida’s 23rd Congressional District, covering parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties, holds a House election as part of the broader 2026 midterm cycle. The seat has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, but redistricting and shifting turnout patterns keep it in play. Candidates from both major parties, along with any third-party contenders, will compete for the seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often hinges on a small number of competitive districts, and this South Florida seat contributes to that broader balance. Local demographic shifts, congressional redistricting, and national political momentum all factor into how the district votes. The outcome will signal whether Democratic strength in South Florida is holding or eroding.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is simply which party’s nominee wins the seat outright, reducing a complex district race to a binary partisan outcome. This isolates the district from national noise, letting participants express a view on South Florida’s specific electoral trajectory. Any movement reflects changing assessments of candidate strength, turnout expectations, and district-level dynamics rather than broader national sentiment.
Related terms
Total Volume
$63.9k
Kalshi $22.1k · Polymarket $41.8k
Leading Market
Lois Frankel
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 98%
Lois Frankel Volume
$16.2k
Kalshi $11.9k · Polymarket $4.3k
Lois Frankel 24h Change
+0.60%
Kalshi +0.60% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lois FrankelDemocratic Party | 97.2¢ | 7.0% |
|
98.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Deborah AdeimyRepublican Party | 2.9¢ | 7.0% |
|
3.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Wasserman Schultz Wins Contested Democratic Primary in Redrawn Florida District
PN Team • 2 months ago
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) won her party's primary in Florida's newly drawn 20th Congressional District, a plurality-Black seat centered on Broward County, after her old 25th District seat was eliminated in Republican-led mid-decade redistricting ordered by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rather than run in a new, whiter district that favored Trump, she chose to compete in the 20th, drawing criticism from local Black leaders, the Broward Black Democratic Caucus, and Congressional Black Caucus members who saw her candidacy as a threat to Black political representation already weakened by the Supreme Court's rollback of the Voting Rights Act; Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined to endorse her.
Wasserman Schultz defeated a divided field of four Black challengers — former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, rapper Luther "Luke" Campbell, Elijah Manley, and Dale Holness — leaning on seniority, fundraising, and an Appropriations Committee seat while her rivals split the opposing vote. Her win makes her the only white House member representing a plurality or majority-Black district heading into 2027, following the elimination of Rep. Steve Cohen's Memphis district by Tennessee Republicans. The broader Florida redistricting effort cut four Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the midterms.
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are portrayed as orchestrating mid-decade redistricting to weaken Democratic and Black representation.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis is tied to Republican-led redistricting seen as harming Democratic and Black representation.
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz She won the primary but faced significant criticism for displacing Black representation, a mixed but net-negative portrayal.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is depicted as internally divided over race and representation in this primary fight.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned only as favored by the alternative district, a tangential reference.
- Florida Florida is the site of contentious redistricting that reduced Democratic seats.
- Hakeem Jeffries Jeffries' refusal to endorse her is a minor factual detail reflecting political tension, not a direct characterization of him.
- Broward County, Florida Broward County is mentioned factually as the seat's geographic base.
- Florida's 20th congressional district The district itself is central to the story as a factual subject.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned factually as the body whose seats were affected by redistricting.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is the factual body relevant to the seat and election described.
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Elections
Florida Primary Results Scramble Both Parties’ Establishment Narratives
PN Team • 2 months ago
Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.
Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Byron Donalds Byron Donalds is highlighted as the Republican gubernatorial primary winner and would make history as Florida's first Black governor.
- Randy Fine Randy Fine's primary win is described as 'contentious,' implying a rocky and controversial victory.
- Ashley Moody Ashley Moody is portrayed as a successful incumbent who won her primary with Trump's backing.
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz Debbie Wasserman Schultz is noted as successfully defending her seat against a primary challenge.
- Jared Moskowitz Jared Moskowitz is noted as successfully fending off a primary challenger.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis's public misgivings about Donalds were overridden, suggesting diminished influence within his own party.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsements proved decisive in multiple races, reinforcing his political influence within the party.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party's primary results are described factually, with mixed outcomes for establishment and progressive wings.
- Florida Florida is the central setting of the primary results described in a factual, balanced manner.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party's primary results are reported neutrally, showing internal divisions but overall party competitiveness.
- Marco Rubio Marco Rubio is mentioned only as the prior holder of the Senate seat now up for special election.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as context for House and Senate primary races.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced as the body for the various House primary races discussed.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced as the body for the special election primary discussed.
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Elections
DHS rejects Florida Senate nominee Angie Nixon’s claims of racial profiling by ICE
PN Team • 2 months ago
Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon drew a sharp rebuke from the Department of Homeland Security after saying Republicans were "literally trying to kill" black Americans and calling ICE a "weaponized paramilitary force" designed to terrorize people. Nixon made the remarks on a podcast this month, days before winning her primary, citing a September 2025 ICE operation in Chicago's South Shore neighborhood that targeted suspected Tren de Aragua members and resulted in roughly two dozen detentions.
DHS called the racial-profiling allegations "categorically FALSE," saying immigration status—not race—drives enforcement, and cited a sharp rise in reported assaults, vehicular attacks, and death threats against agents. The Republican National Committee argued Nixon's comments would help GOP candidates nationally. Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member, defeated former National Security Council official Alexander Vindman by 12 points in a lopsided primary upset despite being vastly outspent and lacking backing from Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or the DSA, winning most major metro areas including Miami-Dade and Broward. Since winning, she has distanced herself from the socialist label despite her DSA membership, denying she supports abolishing police funding or open borders. She now faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the remainder of Marco Rubio's former Senate term, in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The RNC's comment suggests Nixon's remarks help Republicans politically, a favorable framing for the GOP.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic nominee's inflammatory remarks and internal party divisions reflect mildly negatively on the party.
- Ashley Moody Moody is mentioned as the favored Republican opponent in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.
- Broward County, Florida Broward County is noted as an area Nixon won, a neutral factual mention.
- Miami Miami-Dade is mentioned as an area Nixon won, a neutral factual detail.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez AOC is mentioned only as a prominent figure who did not back Nixon, a neutral/tangential reference.
- Bernie Sanders Sanders is mentioned only as someone who did not endorse Nixon, a neutral tangential mention.
- Chicago Chicago is mentioned as the location of the ICE operation cited by Nixon, a factual reference.
- Florida Florida is the factual setting for the Senate race and political controversy.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is mentioned factually as the context of the race.
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Local & State
Florida property tax cut proposal raises alarm over public hospital funding
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Miami Herald readers are pushing back on proposed Florida property tax cuts, warning of steep funding losses for public health systems. Jackson Health System in Miami-Dade County stands to lose roughly $64 million in annual tax funding, jeopardizing services such as emergency care, behavioral health, organ transplants, and labor and delivery, much of it provided regardless of a patient's insurance status or ability to pay. Broward Health could lose more than $100 million over three years, while Palm Beach County's Health Care District could lose about $66.5 million.
Letter writers argue that lawmakers and voters should demand a concrete replacement funding plan before enacting cuts that could force hospitals to scale back programs and staffing, disproportionately affecting residents with the fewest healthcare alternatives. The debate reflects a broader tension in Florida politics between delivering property tax relief to homeowners and preserving funding for public services, with public hospital systems across South Florida identified as among the most exposed to near-term budget shortfalls if cuts move forward without offsetting revenue measures.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Miami-Dade County, Florida Miami-Dade County's Jackson Health System stands to lose $64 million, threatening critical services for residents.
- Broward County, Florida Broward Health could lose over $100 million in funding, threatening public health services in Broward County.
- Palm Beach County, Florida Palm Beach County's Health Care District could lose $66.5 million, jeopardizing public health funding.
- Florida Florida's proposed property tax cuts are depicted as risking public hospital funding statewide, a reputationally mixed policy debate.
- Miami Miami is mentioned as home to Jackson Health System, which faces major funding losses, a neutral-to-slightly negative factual reference.
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Elections
Alaska holds midterm primaries in pivotal Senate race
PN Team • 2 months ago
Alaska voters headed to the polls Tuesday in primaries shaping contests for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor and the legislature, alongside a Florida primary seen as an early indicator for control of Congress. The marquee Alaska race pits Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan against Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola, one of 16 candidates in the all-party primary; the top four finishers advance to a November general election decided by ranked choice voting. A same-named challenger, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., also qualified for the ballot after Republicans failed in court to remove him, and the Justice Department is reportedly investigating whether he entered the race to confuse voters and split support from the incumbent.
Rep. Nick Begich is seeking a second term against independent challenger Bill Hill, while 17 candidates compete to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Voters are also deciding a ballot measure on campaign contribution limits. Some polls show Peltola leading in a state that typically favors Republicans, and Democrats view Alaska as a key opportunity as they seek to flip four seats to win Senate control.
Sentiment
- Mary Peltola Peltola is shown leading in some polls in a traditionally Republican-leaning state, a favorable portrayal.
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) Sullivan faces a competitive race and a confusingly similar-named challenger, a mildly unfavorable situation for him.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are portrayed as failing in a court effort and facing a potentially competitive loss in a traditionally favorable state.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as viewing Alaska as a key opportunity to flip Senate seats, a neutral strategic framing.
- Alaska Alaska is the factual setting for the primary elections described.
- Florida Florida's primary is mentioned as an early indicator for congressional control, a neutral factual reference.
- Independent politician Independent challenger Bill Hill is mentioned only factually without elaboration.
- Mike Dunleavy (politician) Dunleavy is mentioned only as the term-limited governor whose seat is open.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned as the broader context for the elections without specific evaluative content.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned as one of the contested offices without further detail.
- United States Senate The Senate race is the central topic but described factually without reputational spin.
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Elections
Palm Beach GOP addresses Caruso controversy as Florida House races heat up
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Palm Beach County Republican Party Chair Carl Cascio addressed the controversy surrounding Mike Caruso, who served about a year as Palm Beach County Clerk of the Circuit Court and Comptroller after being appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis in August 2025, before being suspended amid child sex charges. Caruso's continued appearance on a voter guide following his arrest drew scrutiny, which Cascio discussed on WFLA's Battleground Florida podcast alongside broader Republican prospects in Florida's midterms.
The podcast also featured Rep. Darren Soto, who is seeking reelection in Florida's 9th Congressional District against Republican Dan Green, a Trump administration Department of Defense appointee whose campaign did not respond to requests for comment. Soto's district, redrawn mid-decade under DeSantis and the Republican legislature, now has more registered Republicans than Democrats. Also featured was Branden Scrivener, a No Party Affiliated, self-described progressive candidate challenging Rep. Gus Bilirakis and Democrat Kimberly Overman in District 12, as independent candidates seek traction in competitive races ahead of November.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis is implicated for appointing Caruso, who is now embroiled in scandal, and for redistricting controversy.
- Palm Beach County, Florida Palm Beach County is tied to the Caruso scandal and local GOP controversy.
- Darren Soto Soto is presented neutrally as an incumbent seeking reelection with a favorable district redraw noted.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned only tangentially as the administration under which Dan Green served.
- Florida's 9th congressional district The district is described factually as redrawn and now more Republican-leaning.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is discussed broadly regarding midterm prospects and a scandal involving one of its appointees, with mixed implications.
- Florida Florida is the general setting for the political races discussed, a neutral geographic reference.
- United States Department of Defense Mentioned only as the department where Dan Green served, a neutral factual reference.
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Elections
DeSantis blasts Nixon and Mills, calls Caruso arrest a “gut punch”
PN Team • 2 months ago
Gov. Ron DeSantis, speaking Wednesday in Orlando, weighed in on Florida's primary results and a scandal involving one of his own appointees. He dismissed Angie Nixon's chances against Sen. Ashley Moody in November, calling the progressive state lawmaker's Senate bid unlikely to succeed statewide, and touted Florida's growing GOP voter registration advantage. He also backed Ryan Elijah, who defeated embattled Rep. Cory Mills in the GOP primary, saying Mills' nomination would have put the seat at risk in the general election.
DeSantis called the arrest of Michael Caruso, whom he appointed Palm Beach County clerk of courts, a "gut punch." Caruso, 67, a former state representative once praised by DeSantis, faces five felony charges including kidnapping, molestation, luring and enticing a child, lewd and lascivious exhibition, and child abuse. Authorities say the victim, Caruso's grandson under age 12, described abuse on three occasions, including during a Thanksgiving 2024 incident and aboard a cruise ship in August 2025. Caruso denied the allegations when confronted and is being held without bond in Orange County. DeSantis suspended Caruso and installed an interim clerk; Attorney General James Uthmeier said Caruso would "face the full force of the law," and reports indicate a daughter had previously made similar allegations.
Sentiment
- Palm Beach County, Florida Palm Beach County is tied to the scandal involving its suspended clerk of courts, a negative association for the county's institutions.
- Republican Party (United States) DeSantis touts the GOP's growing voter registration advantage, a favorable mention for the party.
- Ashley Moody Moody is portrayed as the likely favorite in her Senate race, a mildly favorable mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Angie Nixon, a Democratic lawmaker, is dismissed by DeSantis as unlikely to win statewide, a mild negative framing tied to the party.
- United States House of Representatives The House seat context involves Cory Mills' primary loss amid scandal, a tangential negative association.
- Orange County, California Orange County is mentioned only as where Caruso is held without bond, a neutral factual detail.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis is shown taking decisive action and commenting on political matters, a largely neutral to slightly favorable portrayal despite the scandal involving his appointee.
- Florida Florida is the general setting for the political and legal events described, a neutral geographic reference.
- Law enforcement Law enforcement is referenced factually in connection with the arrest and investigation without particular praise or criticism.
- Orlando, Florida Orlando is simply the location where DeSantis made his remarks, a neutral reference.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned only as the context for Moody's race, a neutral factual reference.
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Elections
Palm Beach County GOP includes suspended official facing child sex abuse charges in voter guide
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
The Palm Beach County Republican Party published a voter guide endorsing Mike Caruso for Clerk of the Circuit Court and Comptroller, despite his suspension from the role earlier this year. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had appointed Caruso in 2025, suspended him in August after he was charged with kidnapping, lewd or lascivious molestation of a victim under age 12, lewd or lascivious exhibition, luring or enticing a child, and child abuse.
Caruso has pleaded not guilty to all charges and has since posted bond. Party officials had previously said they would not back his election bid following the arrest, but the guide listing him as the party's pick circulated on the county GOP's Instagram account for at least 19 hours before disappearing after a reporter sought comment. Officials did not respond to requests for explanation. A spokesperson for Caruso says he remains in the race and intends to win, though his campaign website is currently offline.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The county GOP's inclusion of a suspended official facing child sex abuse charges in its voter guide, and subsequent silence, reflects poorly on the party's judgment and transparency.
- Palm Beach County, Florida The county GOP's mishandling of the endorsement reflects negatively on the local party's credibility in Palm Beach County.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis is mentioned factually as having appointed and later suspended Caruso, a neutral administrative action.
- Florida Florida is mentioned only as the location of the governor and political context, a tangential reference.
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Elections
Race takes divergent roles in Florida’s governor and Senate contests
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Florida's two marquee 2026 statewide races present unusual racial pairings, and candidates are handling the dynamic very differently. In the Senate race, Democrat Angie Nixon, a progressive from Jacksonville, faces Republican Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general appointed to the seat Marco Rubio vacated. In the governor's race, Republican Byron Donalds, who could become Florida's first Black governor, is running against David Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat with strong Black voter support.
Analysts say Donalds has mostly avoided Black-specific outreach and race-focused messaging, emphasizing the economy and school choice instead, reflecting a common strategy for Black conservative candidates wary of alienating their base. Despite recent efforts to court Black voters, polling shows Jolly holding a commanding lead among Black voters. Nixon, by contrast, has leaned into discussing race directly while also courting white working-class voters with economic messaging, trailing Moody in current polling but with strategists calling her a credible underdog capable of winning with strong turnout.
Donalds has continued to draw national attention on other issues, recently criticizing far-left Florida Democrats who have called to abolish ICE amid the broader immigration debate.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Byron Donalds Highlighted as a potentially historic candidate with a disciplined, strategic campaign approach.
- Ashley Moody Described as a former state attorney general currently leading in polling, a favorable position.
- Angie Nixon Portrayed as a credible underdog with a direct, authentic approach to discussing race and economic issues.
- Marco Rubio Mentioned only factually as the prior Senate seat holder who vacated the position.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party affiliation of candidates without specific positive or negative framing.
- Florida Serves as the factual backdrop for the political races discussed, with no particular reputational framing.
- Jacksonville, Florida Mentioned only as Angie Nixon's hometown, a neutral factual detail.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party affiliation of candidates without specific positive or negative framing.
- United States Senate The Senate race is discussed factually without reflecting positively or negatively on the institution itself.
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Elections
Operative tied to Florida’s 2020 “ghost candidate” scandal targets AG hopeful with misleading texts
PN Team • 1 week ago
Alex Alvarado, a GOP operative implicated in Florida's 2020 "ghost candidate" scheme, is now sending text messages suggesting Democratic attorney general candidate Jose Javier Rodríguez won't "defend reproductive freedom." The texts, funded through a newly registered committee called Lower Our Costs Now, cite a 2015 abortion bill vote Rodríguez missed on the floor but later recorded a "no" vote on afterward. Rodríguez's campaign calls the ads misleading and notes his Planned Parenthood endorsement. Alvarado, an early donor to incumbent Attorney General James Uthmeier, was previously tied to 2020 efforts—some resulting in convictions—to siphon votes from Democrats using decoy independent candidates, including a scheme that helped defeat Rodríguez's state Senate bid.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) A GOP operative tied to a vote-rigging scandal is running misleading attacks, reflecting poorly on the party.
- Florida Florida is the setting for the ghost candidate scandal and misleading political ads, a reputationally negative context.
- Independent politician Decoy independent candidates were used in a vote-siphoning scheme, casting the term in a manipulative light.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidate Rodríguez is targeted by misleading texts, a tangential negative mention for the party.
- Florida Senate Rodríguez's prior state Senate bid, defeated via a ghost candidate scheme, is referenced tangentially.
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