Florida Senate

Alex Alvarado, a GOP operative implicated in Florida's 2020 "ghost candidate" scheme, is now sending text messages suggesting Democratic attorney general candidate Jose Javier Rodríguez won't "defend reproductive freedom." The texts, funded through a newly registered committee called Lower Our Costs Now, cite a 2015 abortion bill vote Rodríguez missed on the floor but later recorded a "no" vote on afterward. Rodríguez's campaign calls the ads misleading and notes his Planned Parenthood endorsement. Alvarado, an early donor to incumbent Attorney General James Uthmeier, was previously tied to 2020 efforts—some resulting in convictions—to siphon votes from Democrats using decoy independent candidates, including a scheme that helped defeat Rodríguez's state Senate bid.

Tallahassee voters will choose a new mayor in the Nov. 3 general election, a nonpartisan race for City Commission Seat 4 that pays $99,167 annually. The winner is sworn in Nov. 16.

Two candidates are competing: Loranne Ausley, 62, an attorney and small business owner who spent more than 20 years as a Florida state senator and representative and founded Whole Child Leon and the South City Foundation; and Jeremy Matlow, 41, the lone sitting City Commissioner in the race, a co-owner of Gaines Street Pies with eight years of local government experience.

Both candidates say restoring public trust in City Hall is a top priority, though they frame the city's challenges differently. Ausley emphasizes unifying a divided commission and addressing housing costs and growth while protecting neighborhoods. Matlow casts himself as a break from entrenched political and developer interests, pledging affordable housing units, permitting reform and neighborhood reinvestment. The race will test voter appetite for continuity versus change in city leadership.

Democrat Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in Florida's Senate primary by nearly 12 points, is now challenging Republican Senator Ashley Moody in a race most analysts consider a longshot for Democrats. Florida has 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, and polls show Moody leading, though margins vary. Nixon faces a severe funding gap, having raised under $1 million to Moody's more than $11 million as of late July, limiting her ability to counter attack ads tying her to the Democratic Socialists of America.

National Democrats have been slow to invest in the race, but Senators Chris Murphy and Bernie Sanders are campaigning with Nixon this week, with Sanders contributing $250,000. Nixon is running on universal health care, child care, and affordable housing, and is working to mobilize Black voters and women while courting GOP-leaning communities. She has embraced an unapologetically progressive, grassroots-driven campaign, drawing comparisons to gubernatorial nominee David Jolly's more moderate crossover strategy, with both races seen as tests of competing Democratic approaches ahead of 2028. Analysts say Trump's unpopularity and cost-of-living concerns give her an opening, but she would need exceptionally high Democratic turnout combined with Republican voters staying home to overcome the state's structural disadvantages.

Florida lawmakers closed their final budget commission meeting before the midterms with forecasts showing a $7.1 billion surplus next year, a sharp turnaround after two sessions of tightened spending. State Senator Ed Hooper (R-Clearwater), a lead budget negotiator, called it a win for the legislature.

Scrutiny is falling on the state's Emergency Preparedness and Response trust fund, which began the fiscal year with $87 million and is now projected to end with just $6.4 million after covering hurricane response and immigration enforcement, including operations like Alligator Alcatraz. A worst-case scenario could leave the fund $1.5 billion in deficit if multiple major storms hit. Lawmakers approved $240 million in additional support, and Senate Democratic Leader Lori Berman criticized the use of emergency funds for immigration enforcement. Officials say billions in federal reimbursements remain outstanding. New Division of Emergency Management head Jared Perdue, on the job less than three weeks, declined to detail current fund balances. Hooper expects immigration-related spending to face heightened legislative scrutiny once new state leadership takes office.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said Florida must avoid becoming a "digital AI surveillance state," urging lawmakers to pass privacy protections limiting how license-plate reader systems and other AI-driven tools collect and sell residents' data. Speaking at a Jacksonville press conference, DeSantis said some uses of plate-reader technology, such as toll-by-plate, are reasonable, but broad tracking or routine criminal penalties are not. He renewed his push for an "AI bill of rights," noting the Florida Senate passed related legislation 39-1 while criticizing the House for failing to take it up.

DeSantis warned that private companies profit from harvesting movement data and that weak penalties allow misuse by both corporations and law enforcement, citing officers improperly using plate-reader data to track exes. He also flagged broader risks from AI systems acting unpredictably, insisting humans must remain in control. Citing New Hampshire as a model, he called for narrowly targeted law-enforcement tools rather than mass data collection, and said the Legislature must act as AI and surveillance technology continue to expand.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has named 17 Florida legislative races as top targets ahead of the November election, including three in the Tampa Bay area, as Democrats try to build on recent special election wins and chip away at the Republican supermajority in Tallahassee. State Sen. Brian Nathan, who flipped Senate District 14 in a March special election, will again face former Republican Rep. Josie Tomkow. Other contested races include Luis Salazar challenging Dan Weldon for a Hillsborough House seat and Lindsay Polega-Quigley defending a Pinellas district against Melissa Rutland, with both Democrats emphasizing affordability, housing, and insurance costs.

Republicans, who hold a roughly 1.5 million voter registration edge statewide, say they remain unified after two contentious legislative sessions and are confident they will keep control. Analysts note that while Democrats are unlikely to break the GOP supermajority this cycle, they could erode Republican margins and voter discipline, with a fuller challenge to Republican dominance likely requiring multiple additional election cycles through 2028.

Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.

Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.

Angie Nixon, a Florida state representative running for state Senate with Democratic Socialists of America backing, defeated Alex Vindman in Tuesday's primary, a surprise result now drawing national scrutiny of her past statements. Circulating remarks, highlighted by RNC Research and conservative outlets, include Nixon saying Republicans "are literally trying to kill us" and are unwilling to work across the aisle, plus her description of ICE as a "weaponized paramilitary force" meant to "terrorize" that she says should be abolished and whose agents she suggested should be jailed.

Footage also shows Nixon quoting Assata Shakur, a former FBI-listed fugitive convicted in a police officer's killing, during a church campaign stop, framing voting rights, school funding, and immigration enforcement as modern "chains." She has defended drag shows as "wholesome entertainment" for children and voiced support for reinstating DEI policies and a pathway to citizenship for immigrants. Nixon now faces Republican incumbent Ashley Moody in November's general election, with the controversy likely to shape narratives around DSA-aligned candidates nationally.