Florida’s 26th District House Race: Who Will Win

Miami Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar released a campaign ad criticizing President Trump's immigration enforcement, saying some efforts "have gone too far" and warning him to be wary of his advisers' counsel. The ad, filmed in Washington, cites ICE data claiming half of detainees have no criminal convictions or pending charges, pushing back on the administration's "worst of the worst" messaging. It comes seven weeks before Salazar faces re-election in Florida's 27th District, a Miami-Dade seat that is roughly 74% Hispanic and that Trump won with 57% of the vote in 2024, and which Democrats hope to flip.

Trump has repeatedly endorsed Salazar's re-election. Her Democratic challenger, former news anchor Elliot Rodriguez, called the ad political opportunism, noting her prior votes to fund ICE. Salazar has long pushed a bipartisan immigration overhaul, the Dignity Act, which has drawn little Republican support and accusations of amnesty advocacy. The ad's digital targeting reportedly excludes several coastal zip codes that favored Kamala Harris in 2024.

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) released a new campaign ad, filmed in D.C. and running in South Florida, accusing President Trump of going "too far" with immigration enforcement, warning that Hispanic voters who helped elect him in 2024 now "feel betrayed." Citing ICE data showing half of detainees had no criminal convictions or pending charges, she urged Trump to "be careful" about his advisers' guidance and compared his potential legacy to Lincoln's on slavery and Reagan's on communism. Salazar said she does not seek amnesty but a "dignified life" for immigrants, tying her message to her bipartisan Dignity Act (also called the DIGNIDAD Act), which would offer legal status to long-term undocumented immigrants without criminal records, updated with Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) in July. The ad comes just seven weeks before her reelection contest in a Miami-Dade district Democrats hope to flip.

The rare intra-party rebuke comes amid GOP anxiety that aggressive enforcement, including a troubled Minneapolis surge tied to two deaths, could erode Republican gains with Hispanic voters ahead of the midterms. Salazar's district, roughly 74% Hispanic, swung sharply toward Trump in 2024, helping him flip Miami-Dade County red for the first time since the 1980s, after leaning far narrower in 2020, but polling now shows Latino support swinging back toward Democrats nationally. She faces Democrat Elliot Rodriguez, a fellow Cuban-American and former TV anchor, who dismissed her ad as political opportunism; the race has reportedly tightened. Trump has shown no sign of softening his enforcement approach despite the warning.

Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a Miami Republican, is facing pushback after releasing a campaign ad filmed outside the White House urging President Trump to soften immigration enforcement, warning his policies are hurting the GOP's standing with Latino voters. Many voters in her heavily Hispanic, majority-immigrant district say their support for Trump remains firm even as their confidence in Salazar has slipped, with some accusing her of political self-preservation and poor timing rather than genuine conviction.

Salazar faces Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez, a fellow former TV anchor, in a district Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2024 but which analysts now describe as competitive. Trump publicly criticized Salazar's ad but stopped short of harsher attacks he's aimed at other GOP critics; Salazar later said she had a "fantastic" follow-up conversation with him. The district has been heavily affected by immigration enforcement, with many Venezuelan, Haitian, Cuban and Nicaraguan residents losing humanitarian parole and TPS protections. The Cook Political Report still rates the race "likely Republican," though Democrats point to a fundraising surge for Rodriguez.

Alex Alvarado, a GOP operative implicated in Florida's 2020 "ghost candidate" scheme, is now sending text messages suggesting Democratic attorney general candidate Jose Javier Rodríguez won't "defend reproductive freedom." The texts, funded through a newly registered committee called Lower Our Costs Now, cite a 2015 abortion bill vote Rodríguez missed on the floor but later recorded a "no" vote on afterward. Rodríguez's campaign calls the ads misleading and notes his Planned Parenthood endorsement. Alvarado, an early donor to incumbent Attorney General James Uthmeier, was previously tied to 2020 efforts—some resulting in convictions—to siphon votes from Democrats using decoy independent candidates, including a scheme that helped defeat Rodríguez's state Senate bid.

Leroy Griffith, the Miami businessman known for decades as South Florida's "adult theater king," died peacefully at his Miami home on Oct. 3 at age 94, his family said. Born in 1932 in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, Griffith entered show business as a teenager selling candy at St. Louis burlesque shows and later managed theaters across the Midwest before settling in Miami in the early 1960s. He built a chain of burlesque and X-rated film venues across Florida and beyond, best known for Club Madonna in Miami Beach and the Pussycat Theater in Miami.

His career was marked by repeated clashes with regulators and police, including efforts to circumvent nudity and liquor ordinances, dozens of police raids, and a 2013 incident involving a trafficked minor performing at Club Madonna, for which Griffith was never charged. He famously bought back his own foreclosed theater at a courthouse auction. Griffith outlasted 17 Miami Beach mayors and 16 city managers during his decades-long run. He is survived by his wife, four children, and several grandchildren.

Key West's tourism-dependent economy is losing workers after the Trump administration ended Temporary Protected Status for roughly 330,000 Haitians, a change the Supreme Court allowed to take effect on July 27. Florida has the nation's largest Haitian population, but Key West is especially exposed: a small, isolated island connected to the mainland by a single highway, where immigrants can't easily avoid Border Patrol. Local officials and business owners estimate thousands of Haitians live in and around the city of 25,000, filling hotel, restaurant, and rideshare jobs. Since TPS ended, immigration detentions in the Lower Keys have risen sharply, including arrests of workers with valid permits. Restaurant and hotel owners, including some Trump supporters, say staff shortages are forcing reduced hours and owners to cover shifts themselves, warning of a looming labor crunch as fall tourism season approaches. Immigrant advocates report growing fear among residents, with many avoiding public spaces and transportation. The Department of Homeland Security defended ending TPS, calling it an overused "de facto amnesty" program.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) won her party's primary in Florida's newly drawn 20th Congressional District, a plurality-Black seat centered on Broward County, after her old 25th District seat was eliminated in Republican-led mid-decade redistricting ordered by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rather than run in a new, whiter district that favored Trump, she chose to compete in the 20th, drawing criticism from local Black leaders, the Broward Black Democratic Caucus, and Congressional Black Caucus members who saw her candidacy as a threat to Black political representation already weakened by the Supreme Court's rollback of the Voting Rights Act; Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined to endorse her.

Wasserman Schultz defeated a divided field of four Black challengers — former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, rapper Luther "Luke" Campbell, Elijah Manley, and Dale Holness — leaning on seniority, fundraising, and an Appropriations Committee seat while her rivals split the opposing vote. Her win makes her the only white House member representing a plurality or majority-Black district heading into 2027, following the elimination of Rep. Steve Cohen's Memphis district by Tennessee Republicans. The broader Florida redistricting effort cut four Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the midterms.

A Florida appeals court sharply criticized a Tallahassee grand jury's report on the Hope Florida charity, ordering it expunged and finding that jurors improperly accused individuals of criminal conduct while violating confidentiality rules. Gov. Ron DeSantis responded by calling for prosecutions of whoever leaked the report, while Democrats continue pressing for investigations into his administration. The ruling has elevated Hope Florida as a campaign issue ahead of next month's election, with gubernatorial candidates Byron Donalds (R) and David Jolly (D) both campaigning amid Hurricane Isaias recovery efforts that have left thousands without power.

Separately, Florida's attorney general race is drawing national attention after Democratic candidate José Javier Rodríguez received a $5 million injection from a national party group, the largest such donation to a statewide Florida candidate this cycle, aimed at unseating appointed Republican AG James Uthmeier. Uthmeier is also pushing for added restrictions on Meta after rejecting a multi-state settlement. Meanwhile, documents tied to a 2021 "ghost candidate" scandal are resurfacing in Florida Power & Light's merger talks with Dominion Energy.

Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon drew a sharp rebuke from the Department of Homeland Security after saying Republicans were "literally trying to kill" black Americans and calling ICE a "weaponized paramilitary force" designed to terrorize people. Nixon made the remarks on a podcast this month, days before winning her primary, citing a September 2025 ICE operation in Chicago's South Shore neighborhood that targeted suspected Tren de Aragua members and resulted in roughly two dozen detentions.

DHS called the racial-profiling allegations "categorically FALSE," saying immigration status—not race—drives enforcement, and cited a sharp rise in reported assaults, vehicular attacks, and death threats against agents. The Republican National Committee argued Nixon's comments would help GOP candidates nationally. Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member, defeated former National Security Council official Alexander Vindman by 12 points in a lopsided primary upset despite being vastly outspent and lacking backing from Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or the DSA, winning most major metro areas including Miami-Dade and Broward. Since winning, she has distanced herself from the socialist label despite her DSA membership, denying she supports abolishing police funding or open borders. She now faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the remainder of Marco Rubio's former Senate term, in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.

Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.

Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.