Florida’s 28th District House Race 2026
Florida’s 28th Congressional District, covering parts of Miami-Dade and Collier counties, heads back to voters in the 2026 midterms. The seat has been a competitive battleground in recent cycles, drawing national attention as both parties vie for control. Candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties, along with potential third-party contenders, are expected to compete for the seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House of Representatives often comes down to a handful of swing districts, and FL-28 has proven volatile in past elections. South Florida’s shifting demographics and voter loyalties make the district a bellwether for broader political trends. The outcome could influence which party holds a governing majority in Washington.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is simple: which party’s nominee ultimately wins the seat. Because the district has swung between parties before, the contract isolates partisan control rather than any single candidate’s popularity. Traders are effectively assessing how durable recent political shifts in South Florida are heading into a midterm environment.
Related terms
Total Volume
$26.6k
Kalshi $18k · Polymarket $8.6k
Leading Market
Carlos Gimenez
Polymarket 94%
Carlos Gimenez Volume
$1.7k
Polymarket $1.7k
Carlos Gimenez 24h Change
-2.00%
Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos GimenezRepublican Party | — | — | — | 94.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Carlos GiménezRepublican Party | 93.1¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Phil HartmanDemocratic Party | 7.6¢ | 7.0% |
|
7.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Salazar releases campaign ad criticizing Trump immigration enforcement
PN Team • 1 month ago
Miami Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar released a campaign ad criticizing President Trump's immigration enforcement, saying some efforts "have gone too far" and warning him to be wary of his advisers' counsel. The ad, filmed in Washington, cites ICE data claiming half of detainees have no criminal convictions or pending charges, pushing back on the administration's "worst of the worst" messaging. It comes seven weeks before Salazar faces re-election in Florida's 27th District, a Miami-Dade seat that is roughly 74% Hispanic and that Trump won with 57% of the vote in 2024, and which Democrats hope to flip.
Trump has repeatedly endorsed Salazar's re-election. Her Democratic challenger, former news anchor Elliot Rodriguez, called the ad political opportunism, noting her prior votes to fund ICE. Salazar has long pushed a bipartisan immigration overhaul, the Dignity Act, which has drawn little Republican support and accusations of amnesty advocacy. The ad's digital targeting reportedly excludes several coastal zip codes that favored Kamala Harris in 2024.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's immigration enforcement is directly criticized in the ad as having "gone too far," casting him in a negative light.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as hoping to flip the district, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP is mentioned as offering little support for Salazar's immigration bill, a mildly negative but minor detail.
- United States House of Representatives Salazar's House seat and re-election race are central to the story but described neutrally.
- Miami Miami is mentioned only as Salazar's home base, a neutral geographic detail.
- Miami-Dade County, Florida Miami-Dade County is described factually as the district's location and demographic makeup.
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Elections
Miami Republican María Elvira Salazar draws backlash over Trump immigration ad
PN Team • 1 month ago
Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a Miami Republican, is facing pushback after releasing a campaign ad filmed outside the White House urging President Trump to soften immigration enforcement, warning his policies are hurting the GOP's standing with Latino voters. Many voters in her heavily Hispanic, majority-immigrant district say their support for Trump remains firm even as their confidence in Salazar has slipped, with some accusing her of political self-preservation and poor timing rather than genuine conviction.
Salazar faces Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez, a fellow former TV anchor, in a district Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2024 but which analysts now describe as competitive. Trump publicly criticized Salazar's ad but stopped short of harsher attacks he's aimed at other GOP critics; Salazar later said she had a "fantastic" follow-up conversation with him. The district has been heavily affected by immigration enforcement, with many Venezuelan, Haitian, Cuban and Nicaraguan residents losing humanitarian parole and TPS protections. The Cook Political Report still rates the race "likely Republican," though Democrats point to a fundraising surge for Rodriguez.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP is depicted as losing standing with Latino voters due to Trump's immigration policies.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are shown gaining momentum via a fundraising surge and a competitive challenger, casting the party favorably.
- Donald Trump Trump's immigration policies are described as hurting the GOP and he is shown publicly criticizing an ally, though he softened his response.
- Florida Florida is mentioned only as the geographic setting for the district.
- Miami Miami is mentioned as Salazar's district location without additional reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as the institutional context for Salazar's role as a representative.
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Elections
Operative tied to Florida’s 2020 “ghost candidate” scandal targets AG hopeful with misleading texts
PN Team • 1 week ago
Alex Alvarado, a GOP operative implicated in Florida's 2020 "ghost candidate" scheme, is now sending text messages suggesting Democratic attorney general candidate Jose Javier Rodríguez won't "defend reproductive freedom." The texts, funded through a newly registered committee called Lower Our Costs Now, cite a 2015 abortion bill vote Rodríguez missed on the floor but later recorded a "no" vote on afterward. Rodríguez's campaign calls the ads misleading and notes his Planned Parenthood endorsement. Alvarado, an early donor to incumbent Attorney General James Uthmeier, was previously tied to 2020 efforts—some resulting in convictions—to siphon votes from Democrats using decoy independent candidates, including a scheme that helped defeat Rodríguez's state Senate bid.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) A GOP operative tied to a vote-rigging scandal is running misleading attacks, reflecting poorly on the party.
- Florida Florida is the setting for the ghost candidate scandal and misleading political ads, a reputationally negative context.
- Independent politician Decoy independent candidates were used in a vote-siphoning scheme, casting the term in a manipulative light.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidate Rodríguez is targeted by misleading texts, a tangential negative mention for the party.
- Florida Senate Rodríguez's prior state Senate bid, defeated via a ghost candidate scheme, is referenced tangentially.
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Congress
Florida Republican Salazar breaks with Trump over immigration crackdown
PN Team • 1 month ago
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) released a new campaign ad, filmed in D.C. and running in South Florida, accusing President Trump of going "too far" with immigration enforcement, warning that Hispanic voters who helped elect him in 2024 now "feel betrayed." Citing ICE data showing half of detainees had no criminal convictions or pending charges, she urged Trump to "be careful" about his advisers' guidance and compared his potential legacy to Lincoln's on slavery and Reagan's on communism. Salazar said she does not seek amnesty but a "dignified life" for immigrants, tying her message to her bipartisan Dignity Act (also called the DIGNIDAD Act), which would offer legal status to long-term undocumented immigrants without criminal records, updated with Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) in July. The ad comes just seven weeks before her reelection contest in a Miami-Dade district Democrats hope to flip.
The rare intra-party rebuke comes amid GOP anxiety that aggressive enforcement, including a troubled Minneapolis surge tied to two deaths, could erode Republican gains with Hispanic voters ahead of the midterms. Salazar's district, roughly 74% Hispanic, swung sharply toward Trump in 2024, helping him flip Miami-Dade County red for the first time since the 1980s, after leaning far narrower in 2020, but polling now shows Latino support swinging back toward Democrats nationally. She faces Democrat Elliot Rodriguez, a fellow Cuban-American and former TV anchor, who dismissed her ad as political opportunism; the race has reportedly tightened. Trump has shown no sign of softening his enforcement approach despite the warning.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Minneapolis Minneapolis is linked to a troubled immigration enforcement surge tied to two deaths, casting it negatively in context.
- Donald Trump Trump is criticized by a fellow Republican for going too far on immigration enforcement, risking voter backlash and legacy comparisons to negative historical figures.
- Republican Party (United States) The piece highlights intra-party anxiety and rebuke over Trump's immigration crackdown eroding Hispanic support.
- United States The United States is the backdrop for national immigration policy debate, mentioned neutrally.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats hope to flip the district, portrayed neutrally as a political opportunity.
- Miami-Dade County, Florida Miami-Dade County is cited as a swing area politically, described factually without strong reputational framing.
- Florida Florida is the location of Salazar's district, mentioned factually.
- South Florida South Florida is mentioned as where the ad is running, a neutral factual detail.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as the chamber where Salazar and Escobar serve, factually noted.
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Miami adult entertainment figure Leroy Griffith dies at 94
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Leroy Griffith, the Miami businessman known for decades as South Florida's "adult theater king," died peacefully at his Miami home on Oct. 3 at age 94, his family said. Born in 1932 in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, Griffith entered show business as a teenager selling candy at St. Louis burlesque shows and later managed theaters across the Midwest before settling in Miami in the early 1960s. He built a chain of burlesque and X-rated film venues across Florida and beyond, best known for Club Madonna in Miami Beach and the Pussycat Theater in Miami.
His career was marked by repeated clashes with regulators and police, including efforts to circumvent nudity and liquor ordinances, dozens of police raids, and a 2013 incident involving a trafficked minor performing at Club Madonna, for which Griffith was never charged. He famously bought back his own foreclosed theater at a courthouse auction. Griffith outlasted 17 Miami Beach mayors and 16 city managers during his decades-long run. He is survived by his wife, four children, and several grandchildren.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Miami Miami is the factual setting where Griffith lived, died, and built his business empire.
- South Florida South Florida is referenced as the broader region where Griffith earned his reputation as the 'adult theater king.'
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Elections
Florida governor candidates’ wives outline potential First Lady roles
PN Team • 1 week ago
With Gov. Ron DeSantis term-limited, Florida's November 3 election will determine who succeeds First Lady Casey DeSantis, known for her cancer-prevention advocacy and the Hope Florida welfare initiative. Erika Donalds, wife of Republican nominee Byron Donalds, is a former Collier County school board member and founder of the Education Freedom Foundation, and says she would continue pushing for school choice. Laura Jolly, wife of Democratic nominee David Jolly, has not committed to specific duties given the couple's two young children but says she would lend her voice to issues benefiting Floridians. The race's outcome will shape both Florida's governorship and its next First Lady's priorities.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Byron Donalds Identified as the Republican nominee whose wife discusses her potential role, neutral factual framing.
- Collier County, Florida Referenced factually as the location of Erika Donalds' former school board role.
- Florida Central to the story as the state holding the election, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of Byron Donalds without specific evaluative content.
- Ron DeSantis Mentioned factually as term-limited governor without evaluative content.
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Elections
Wasserman Schultz Wins Contested Democratic Primary in Redrawn Florida District
PN Team • 2 months ago
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) won her party's primary in Florida's newly drawn 20th Congressional District, a plurality-Black seat centered on Broward County, after her old 25th District seat was eliminated in Republican-led mid-decade redistricting ordered by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rather than run in a new, whiter district that favored Trump, she chose to compete in the 20th, drawing criticism from local Black leaders, the Broward Black Democratic Caucus, and Congressional Black Caucus members who saw her candidacy as a threat to Black political representation already weakened by the Supreme Court's rollback of the Voting Rights Act; Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined to endorse her.
Wasserman Schultz defeated a divided field of four Black challengers — former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, rapper Luther "Luke" Campbell, Elijah Manley, and Dale Holness — leaning on seniority, fundraising, and an Appropriations Committee seat while her rivals split the opposing vote. Her win makes her the only white House member representing a plurality or majority-Black district heading into 2027, following the elimination of Rep. Steve Cohen's Memphis district by Tennessee Republicans. The broader Florida redistricting effort cut four Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the midterms.
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are portrayed as orchestrating mid-decade redistricting to weaken Democratic and Black representation.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis is tied to Republican-led redistricting seen as harming Democratic and Black representation.
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz She won the primary but faced significant criticism for displacing Black representation, a mixed but net-negative portrayal.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is depicted as internally divided over race and representation in this primary fight.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned only as favored by the alternative district, a tangential reference.
- Florida Florida is the site of contentious redistricting that reduced Democratic seats.
- Hakeem Jeffries Jeffries' refusal to endorse her is a minor factual detail reflecting political tension, not a direct characterization of him.
- Broward County, Florida Broward County is mentioned factually as the seat's geographic base.
- Florida's 20th congressional district The district itself is central to the story as a factual subject.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned factually as the body whose seats were affected by redistricting.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is the factual body relevant to the seat and election described.
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Elections
Florida Primary Results Scramble Both Parties’ Establishment Narratives
PN Team • 2 months ago
Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.
Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Byron Donalds Byron Donalds is highlighted as the Republican gubernatorial primary winner and would make history as Florida's first Black governor.
- Randy Fine Randy Fine's primary win is described as 'contentious,' implying a rocky and controversial victory.
- Ashley Moody Ashley Moody is portrayed as a successful incumbent who won her primary with Trump's backing.
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz Debbie Wasserman Schultz is noted as successfully defending her seat against a primary challenge.
- Jared Moskowitz Jared Moskowitz is noted as successfully fending off a primary challenger.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis's public misgivings about Donalds were overridden, suggesting diminished influence within his own party.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsements proved decisive in multiple races, reinforcing his political influence within the party.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party's primary results are described factually, with mixed outcomes for establishment and progressive wings.
- Florida Florida is the central setting of the primary results described in a factual, balanced manner.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party's primary results are reported neutrally, showing internal divisions but overall party competitiveness.
- Marco Rubio Marco Rubio is mentioned only as the prior holder of the Senate seat now up for special election.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as context for House and Senate primary races.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced as the body for the various House primary races discussed.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced as the body for the special election primary discussed.
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Elections
Hope Florida ruling intensifies political fallout as 2026 governor’s race heats up
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
A Florida appeals court sharply criticized a Tallahassee grand jury's report on the Hope Florida charity, ordering it expunged and finding that jurors improperly accused individuals of criminal conduct while violating confidentiality rules. Gov. Ron DeSantis responded by calling for prosecutions of whoever leaked the report, while Democrats continue pressing for investigations into his administration. The ruling has elevated Hope Florida as a campaign issue ahead of next month's election, with gubernatorial candidates Byron Donalds (R) and David Jolly (D) both campaigning amid Hurricane Isaias recovery efforts that have left thousands without power.
Separately, Florida's attorney general race is drawing national attention after Democratic candidate José Javier Rodríguez received a $5 million injection from a national party group, the largest such donation to a statewide Florida candidate this cycle, aimed at unseating appointed Republican AG James Uthmeier. Uthmeier is also pushing for added restrictions on Meta after rejecting a multi-state settlement. Meanwhile, documents tied to a 2021 "ghost candidate" scandal are resurfacing in Florida Power & Light's merger talks with Dominion Energy.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tallahassee, Florida Tallahassee is tied to the grand jury report that was criticized and ordered expunged.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican figures DeSantis and Uthmeier face scrutiny over the grand jury report and a contested AG race.
- Byron Donalds Byron Donalds is mentioned simply as a gubernatorial candidate campaigning, a neutral factual reference.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are pressing for investigations and backing a well-funded AG candidate, a modestly favorable political positioning.
- Florida Florida is the setting for multiple political controversies including the Hope Florida scandal and AG race.
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Elections
DHS rejects Florida Senate nominee Angie Nixon’s claims of racial profiling by ICE
PN Team • 2 months ago
Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon drew a sharp rebuke from the Department of Homeland Security after saying Republicans were "literally trying to kill" black Americans and calling ICE a "weaponized paramilitary force" designed to terrorize people. Nixon made the remarks on a podcast this month, days before winning her primary, citing a September 2025 ICE operation in Chicago's South Shore neighborhood that targeted suspected Tren de Aragua members and resulted in roughly two dozen detentions.
DHS called the racial-profiling allegations "categorically FALSE," saying immigration status—not race—drives enforcement, and cited a sharp rise in reported assaults, vehicular attacks, and death threats against agents. The Republican National Committee argued Nixon's comments would help GOP candidates nationally. Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member, defeated former National Security Council official Alexander Vindman by 12 points in a lopsided primary upset despite being vastly outspent and lacking backing from Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or the DSA, winning most major metro areas including Miami-Dade and Broward. Since winning, she has distanced herself from the socialist label despite her DSA membership, denying she supports abolishing police funding or open borders. She now faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the remainder of Marco Rubio's former Senate term, in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The RNC's comment suggests Nixon's remarks help Republicans politically, a favorable framing for the GOP.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic nominee's inflammatory remarks and internal party divisions reflect mildly negatively on the party.
- Ashley Moody Moody is mentioned as the favored Republican opponent in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.
- Broward County, Florida Broward County is noted as an area Nixon won, a neutral factual mention.
- Miami Miami-Dade is mentioned as an area Nixon won, a neutral factual detail.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez AOC is mentioned only as a prominent figure who did not back Nixon, a neutral/tangential reference.
- Bernie Sanders Sanders is mentioned only as someone who did not endorse Nixon, a neutral tangential mention.
- Chicago Chicago is mentioned as the location of the ICE operation cited by Nixon, a factual reference.
- Florida Florida is the factual setting for the Senate race and political controversy.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is mentioned factually as the context of the race.
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97.5%
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