California’s 2nd Congressional District: Who Wins the House Seat

The Senate adjourned for a five-week recess until after the midterm elections, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressing confidence Democrats will retake the majority, citing strong candidates and a favorable political climate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans still expect to hold their majority, though likely narrower, given the map favors states Trump carried previously. Democratic strategists remain split between targeting flippable states like Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa versus reach states such as Mississippi and Florida. Separately, Cook Political Report shifted its Florida and Texas governor's races toward Democrats, now rating both Lean Republican rather than safer categories, citing Trump's weak approval ratings and a difficult midterm environment for the GOP, though Republicans remain favored in both pricey, traditionally red states.

Other developments: a bipartisan Senate permitting reform deal faces resistance in the House, where Democrats say they'd rather wait until after the election to negotiate from a stronger position. House Judiciary's Jamie Raskin asked federal watchdogs to probe taxpayer-funded Trump administration TV ads ahead of the midterms. Schumer also said he'll push AI safety legislation next year, with some Republican support, while Third Way unveiled a Supreme Court reform platform featuring 18-year term limits and an ethics code, aiming to shape Democratic discourse through 2028.

John Turnacliff, chairman of the Marin County Republicans, has publicly retracted his claim that 73 dead people voted in the November Proposition 50 special election, which redrew California's congressional maps to favor Democrats. Speaking at a Marin County Board of Supervisors meeting, Turnacliff apologized to the board and to Registrar of Voters Natalie Adona, saying he could not substantiate the claim after further research.

The county had earlier reviewed the list Turnacliff's group submitted and found at most five deceased individuals on it, with no record of votes cast in their names after death. After buying subscriptions to Ancestry.com and another records database, Turnacliff found many people on his list were actually alive and said he "jumped the gun." He said he apologized to maintain a workable relationship with the registrar's office, though he stressed his retraction was not an admission that voter fraud doesn't exist. Turnacliff, who has scrutinized Marin's voter rolls since the 2020 election, said his group intends to keep investigating other alleged irregularities.

The California Supreme Court heard oral arguments on whether Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco must return more than 650,000 ballots (over 1,400 boxes) seized in March from local election officials during an investigation into unsubstantiated fraud claims tied to a November special election on redistricting (Proposition 50). Justices appeared skeptical of arguments from Bianco's attorney, Bradley Hertz, who claimed sheriffs can seize ballots under warrant regardless of state election law, and that Attorney General Rob Bonta lacks authority to order sheriffs to stand down. Justices questioned both points, with one calling Hertz's reasoning "bizarre" and another "counterintuitive."

Bianco, a former Republican gubernatorial candidate, defied Bonta's order to halt the seizure and began counting ballots before the state Supreme Court intervened in April. Bianco said he would comply if ordered to return the ballots but may continue his investigation regardless. Voting rights advocates, including likely gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, frame the case as a test of sheriff authority ahead of the 2026 midterms amid broader efforts by Trump-aligned officials to challenge election administration. A ruling is expected in coming months.

California legislators quietly inserted $1.3 billion in earmarks into this year's state budget, funding projects from a Santa Barbara college gym renovation to a Marin County farmers market and a minor league baseball stadium in San Jose. The money, allocated through Assembly Bill 113, was added just days before the legislative session ended, with lawmakers keeping their individual requests confidential until after passage.

An analysis found more than 40% of the funds went to nonprofits, with Los Angeles and Santa Barbara counties—home to top Democratic leaders—receiving outsized shares, while many Republican-represented rural counties got little or nothing. Beneficiaries ranged from arts groups and museums to a mixed martial arts fighters' retirement fund and nonprofits with ties to Governor Gavin Newsom. Critics, including nonprofit advocates and taxpayer groups, say the closed-door process rewards political relationships over need, especially as the state confronts federal healthcare funding cuts. Legislative leaders defend the practice as a way to address urgent local needs efficiently, though even some lawmakers acknowledge the lack of transparency is problematic.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed a package of 13 California bills tightening rules for social media platforms and AI companion chatbots to protect minors online. One law requires social media companies to either remove "addictive" features like infinite scroll and autoplay for users under 16 or bar those users entirely, a measure critics including the Electronic Frontier Foundation warn could amount to a de facto ban for teens. Another centerpiece, Adam's Law — named for a California teen whose parents sued OpenAI after his death — imposes time limits for minors, mandates built-in mental health resources and crisis protocols, requires parental notification if a chatbot detects self-harm risk, and opens companies to legal liability for failing to act. OpenAI has voiced support for the measure.

Additional bills impose a four-year moratorium on AI chatbot toys for under-16s, expand platform liability for harm to children, revise age-verification rules, and broaden child sexual abuse material reporting to cover AI-generated content. The package follows Meta's roughly $17 billion settlement with state attorneys general over allegations it knowingly fostered addictive, harmful platform features for teens.

Incumbent Rep. Doris Matsui, 81, faces the toughest reelection fight of her 21-year House tenure from progressive Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, 41, in California's redrawn 7th Congressional District. Vang narrowly led the June primary with about 31.2% of the vote to Matsui's 29.1%, edging out Republican Zachariah Wooden for the second runoff spot in the solidly Democratic seat.

Redrawn under Proposition 50, the district now stretches from El Dorado Hills and Placerville south to Lodi and Linden, absorbing more GOP-leaning El Dorado County suburbs while losing West Sacramento and other areas. Matsui, who succeeded her late husband Robert in the seat, has secured backing from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla and Nancy Pelosi, and holds a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage. Vang, a Hmong refugees' daughter and council progressive known for shifting police funding toward youth and homeless services, has built her campaign on Medicare-For-All, affordable housing and rejecting corporate PAC money, drawing support from outside progressive groups.

Voters in California's 14th congressional district head to the polls Tuesday to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned amid sexual assault allegations he denies. State Sen. Aisha Wahab, a progressive who has called for ending U.S. military aid to Israel, faces Melissa Hernandez, a moderate Democrat and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board president. With two Democrats on the ballot, the seat will stay in Democratic hands. Wahab led the June 16 primary by more than 20 points and remains the favorite, though Hernandez has more than doubled her in fundraising.

The race has drawn heavy outside spending tied to AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries. AIPAC's United Democracy Project and allied group Bold America have together spent roughly $3.7 million opposing Wahab and backing Hernandez, part of about $4.1 million in total outside spending on the race. Wahab has drawn counter-support from pro-Palestinian PAC American Priorities and J Street Action Fund, which accused AIPAC of trying to "buy a Democratic primary." Wahab has emphasized affordability and civil rights, while Hernandez has focused on public safety and cost of living.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas in California's 22nd Congressional District, one of the most closely watched House races in the country and a potential factor in the battle for control of Congress. Valadao has won the Central Valley swing district in six of the last seven elections despite a Democratic voter registration edge, but faces added pressure this cycle after Proposition 50 redistricting slightly increased the district's Democratic lean. He has also drawn criticism for his deciding vote on H.R. 1, a federal policy bill expected to strip healthcare coverage from millions, and for his ties to President Trump.

Villegas, a college professor and school board trustee backed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, defeated moderate Democrat Jasmeet Bains in the primary. He rejects corporate PAC money and campaigns on Medicare for All and affordability issues. Valadao holds a larger overall fundraising and cash advantage, though Villegas has out-raised him in recent filing periods. Analysts are split, with Inside Elections rating the seat "tilt Republican" and Sabato's Crystal Ball calling it "leans Democratic."