How Many House Seats Will Democrats Win in California in 2026

Voters in California's 14th congressional district head to the polls Tuesday to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned amid sexual assault allegations he denies. State Sen. Aisha Wahab, a progressive who has called for ending U.S. military aid to Israel, faces Melissa Hernandez, a moderate Democrat and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board president. With two Democrats on the ballot, the seat will stay in Democratic hands. Wahab led the June 16 primary by more than 20 points and remains the favorite, though Hernandez has more than doubled her in fundraising.

The race has drawn heavy outside spending tied to AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries. AIPAC's United Democracy Project and allied group Bold America have together spent roughly $3.7 million opposing Wahab and backing Hernandez, part of about $4.1 million in total outside spending on the race. Wahab has drawn counter-support from pro-Palestinian PAC American Priorities and J Street Action Fund, which accused AIPAC of trying to "buy a Democratic primary." Wahab has emphasized affordability and civil rights, while Hernandez has focused on public safety and cost of living.

Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) has not reported any income for her husband, Charles Kim, on congressional financial disclosures since first running in 2018, despite Orange County records showing he earned up to $100,000 in 2017 as a U.S. coordinator for Dam Jae, a South Korean nonprofit honoring Korean War veterans. The nonprofit's chairman says the payments were volunteer expense reimbursements, not wages, and Kim's campaign says her husband has been retired since 2017 with only exempt Social Security income.

The disclosure comes amid other financial-transparency disputes involving Kim, including a 2025 ethics complaint alleging she failed to report nearly $50,000 in privately funded travel with her husband to Israel and South Korea, and a failed 2018 lawsuit challenging her "small business owner" ballot label. The renewed scrutiny arrives as Kim faces a bruising general-election matchup against fellow Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in California's redrawn 40th District, a race where both incumbents' financial disclosure histories have become a campaign flashpoint.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas in California's 22nd Congressional District, one of the most closely watched House races in the country and a potential factor in the battle for control of Congress. Valadao has won the Central Valley swing district in six of the last seven elections despite a Democratic voter registration edge, but faces added pressure this cycle after Proposition 50 redistricting slightly increased the district's Democratic lean. He has also drawn criticism for his deciding vote on H.R. 1, a federal policy bill expected to strip healthcare coverage from millions, and for his ties to President Trump.

Villegas, a college professor and school board trustee backed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, defeated moderate Democrat Jasmeet Bains in the primary. He rejects corporate PAC money and campaigns on Medicare for All and affordability issues. Valadao holds a larger overall fundraising and cash advantage, though Villegas has out-raised him in recent filing periods. Analysts are split, with Inside Elections rating the seat "tilt Republican" and Sabato's Crystal Ball calling it "leans Democratic."

California voters head to the polls in November to decide statewide and local races alongside 14 ballot propositions, including a closely watched "billionaires tax" measure and a recall-process reform. San Diego County's voter guide outlines a packed slate of contests, with voter pamphlets mailed in late September and ballots beginning to arrive October 5.

Key federal races include five competitive U.S. House districts (48–52), pitting incumbents and challengers from both parties after redistricting reshaped several seats. State Senate and Assembly races feature multiple incumbents defending seats, while the California State Board of Equalization's District 4 race pits a local water official against a sitting state senator.

Locally, San Diego County voters will also choose county supervisors, school board members, and city officials across numerous municipalities including San Diego, Chula Vista, Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, and others, alongside mayoral races and special district seats covering healthcare, water, and community college boards. The wide-ranging ballot reflects a highly competitive election cycle across Southern California.

Democratic Rep. Josh Harder faces Republican John McBride in the general election for California's 9th Congressional District, a rematch after McBride failed to advance past the primary in 2024. Harder, first elected in 2018 and representing the 9th District since 2022 redistricting, won 60% of the June primary vote to McBride's 23%.

The district, centered in the northern San Joaquin Valley with parts of Contra Costa County, was redrawn ahead of this cycle to favor Harder's reelection, trimming areas like Lodi and Stockton while adding Antioch. It was previously one of two California districts to back Donald Trump in 2024 while also electing a Democrat to Congress.

Harder, a former venture capitalist, has focused on eliminating the gas tax, promoting alternative energy projects, and lowering healthcare costs, including prescription drug prices. McBride, a longtime strength and conditioning coach and Central Valley resident, is emphasizing affordability, a Make America Healthy Again-aligned healthcare approach, agriculture support, and tougher crime penalties.

The California Supreme Court heard oral arguments on whether Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco must return more than 650,000 ballots (over 1,400 boxes) seized in March from local election officials during an investigation into unsubstantiated fraud claims tied to a November special election on redistricting (Proposition 50). Justices appeared skeptical of arguments from Bianco's attorney, Bradley Hertz, who claimed sheriffs can seize ballots under warrant regardless of state election law, and that Attorney General Rob Bonta lacks authority to order sheriffs to stand down. Justices questioned both points, with one calling Hertz's reasoning "bizarre" and another "counterintuitive."

Bianco, a former Republican gubernatorial candidate, defied Bonta's order to halt the seizure and began counting ballots before the state Supreme Court intervened in April. Bianco said he would comply if ordered to return the ballots but may continue his investigation regardless. Voting rights advocates, including likely gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, frame the case as a test of sheriff authority ahead of the 2026 midterms amid broader efforts by Trump-aligned officials to challenge election administration. A ruling is expected in coming months.

California voters will decide in November whether to lift a 1988 ban that bars the state and most local governments from using public funds to finance political campaigns. Proposition 4 would authorize the state and most localities to establish public campaign financing systems for state and local races, similar to programs already used by seven charter cities including San Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland. Candidates would need to meet qualifying criteria, such as securing small-dollar donors or accepting spending caps, to receive funding as grants, matching funds or vouchers.

Supporters, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, the state Democratic Party and good-government groups, argue public financing counters the influence of big private money and could broaden the pool of candidates. Opponents, including Republican lawmakers and some newspaper editorial boards, say taxpayers shouldn't subsidize campaigns and criticize the measure for lacking enforcement specifics, since it exempts the state's campaign finance watchdog from overseeing local programs. Voters rejected similar measures in 2000 and 2010, and recent polling shows continued public skepticism toward Prop. 4.

Incumbent Rep. Doris Matsui, 81, faces the toughest reelection fight of her 21-year House tenure from progressive Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, 41, in California's redrawn 7th Congressional District. Vang narrowly led the June primary with about 31.2% of the vote to Matsui's 29.1%, edging out Republican Zachariah Wooden for the second runoff spot in the solidly Democratic seat.

Redrawn under Proposition 50, the district now stretches from El Dorado Hills and Placerville south to Lodi and Linden, absorbing more GOP-leaning El Dorado County suburbs while losing West Sacramento and other areas. Matsui, who succeeded her late husband Robert in the seat, has secured backing from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla and Nancy Pelosi, and holds a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage. Vang, a Hmong refugees' daughter and council progressive known for shifting police funding toward youth and homeless services, has built her campaign on Medicare-For-All, affordable housing and rejecting corporate PAC money, drawing support from outside progressive groups.

Several California congressional primaries pit establishment Democrats against insurgent challengers, a dynamic that could complicate Hakeem Jeffries' hold on House Democratic leadership if he seeks the speakership in a future majority. Under California's top-two primary system, some races feature Democrat-vs-Democrat matchups between incumbents and younger, further-left or anti-establishment rivals.

Rep. Mike Thompson faces venture capitalist Eric Jones, who says he wouldn't commit to backing Jeffries as speaker. Rep. Doris Matsui, who trailed in the June primary, faces progressive Sacramento Councilmember Mai Vang, who has said she won't support Jeffries. In the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi, state Sen. Scott Wiener backs Jeffries while rival Connie Chan says any speaker candidate must "earn" her vote. Rep. Aisha Wahab, who already defied party leadership once, faces Melissa Hernandez in a rematch. Rep. Jimmy Gomez, under a House Ethics Committee investigation he denies, faces progressive challenger Angela Gonzales-Torres. Many challengers are aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, signaling a potential bloc of leadership skeptics if elected.

Progressive Aisha Wahab has won the special election runoff in California's 14th Congressional District, defeating moderate Melissa Hernandez to fill the remainder of former Rep. Eric Swalwell's term through January. The Associated Press called the race two days after polls closed, with Wahab taking 53.1% of the vote to Hernandez's 46.9%. The margin narrowed sharply from Wahab's double-digit primary lead after AIPAC's United Democracy Project and allied groups spent more than $2.5 million since August boosting Hernandez and attacking Wahab, largely on local issues like public safety rather than Israel policy. Wahab, a state senator, will become the first Afghan American in Congress, having earlier become the first Afghan American elected to any U.S. public office when she won a Hayward City Council seat in 2018; she said the result shows her district "cannot be bought."

Wahab has been critical of Israel's actions in Gaza but did not center the issue in her campaign; she has also championed housing affordability and previously wrote a caste-discrimination bill vetoed by Gov. Gavin Newsom. She drew support from labor unions, the state Democratic Party, and J Street, while Hernandez, a BART director, was backed by police unions, AIPAC-aligned groups, and several Jewish Democratic members of Congress. Wahab succeeds Swalwell, who resigned in April amid sexual assault and harassment allegations he denies; federal agents recently seized his devices at a San Francisco airport and searched his D.C. home as investigations continue. Wahab and Hernandez will face off again in November for a full term beginning in 2027, in a district reshaped by redistricting to include part of Hernandez's former mayoral base in Dublin.