California’s 32nd District House Race 2026
California’s 32nd Congressional District, anchored in the San Fernando Valley and parts of Los Angeles County, heads to voters in November 2026 to choose its next U.S. House representative. The seat has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, but open-seat dynamics and redistricting shifts can reshape turnout and candidate fields. Primary results and candidate filings will help clarify the field as the race develops.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often hinges on dozens of competitive districts, and shifts in historically safe seats can signal broader national trends. A notable swing in CA-32, even if the district stays Democratic, would offer insight into voter sentiment in Southern California suburbs. Local economic conditions and national political headwinds could both factor into turnout.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is binary: will the Democratic or Republican candidate win the seat. This isolates partisan control rather than margin of victory, simplifying a complex electoral contest into a single tradeable outcome. Traders weigh candidate strength, historical district performance, and national political climate to assess which party is favored heading into Election Day.
Related terms
Total Volume
$76.5k
Kalshi $2.6k · Polymarket $73.9k
Leading Market
Brad Sherman
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 99%
Brad Sherman Volume
$42.8k
Kalshi $1.1k · Polymarket $41.7k
Brad Sherman 24h Change
+0.10%
Kalshi +0.10% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad ShermanDemocratic Party | 99.7¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Larry ThompsonRepublican Party | — | — | — | 1.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Congress
Rep. Young Kim faces new questions over undisclosed husband’s nonprofit income
PN Team • 2 months ago
Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) has not reported any income for her husband, Charles Kim, on congressional financial disclosures since first running in 2018, despite Orange County records showing he earned up to $100,000 in 2017 as a U.S. coordinator for Dam Jae, a South Korean nonprofit honoring Korean War veterans. The nonprofit's chairman says the payments were volunteer expense reimbursements, not wages, and Kim's campaign says her husband has been retired since 2017 with only exempt Social Security income.
The disclosure comes amid other financial-transparency disputes involving Kim, including a 2025 ethics complaint alleging she failed to report nearly $50,000 in privately funded travel with her husband to Israel and South Korea, and a failed 2018 lawsuit challenging her "small business owner" ballot label. The renewed scrutiny arrives as Kim faces a bruising general-election matchup against fellow Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in California's redrawn 40th District, a race where both incumbents' financial disclosure histories have become a campaign flashpoint.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Young Kim Kim is the central subject facing serious allegations of undisclosed income and ethics violations.
- United States Congress Congressional financial disclosure rules are central to the story's scrutiny of Kim's reporting failures.
- United States House of Representatives The House is the body where disclosure requirements were allegedly violated, reflecting mild institutional scrutiny.
- Israel Israel is mentioned only as a destination in the undisclosed travel allegation.
- Ken Calvert Calvert is mentioned as Kim's electoral rival with his own disclosure controversies noted as a comparison point.
- Republican Party (United States) Both Kim and Calvert are Republicans, so the party is mentioned tangentially in a financial scandal context without direct blame.
- California California is mentioned as the state Kim represents, a neutral geographic reference.
- Orange County, California Orange County records are cited as the factual source of the husband's income data.
- United States The U.S. is mentioned generically in reference to Kim's husband's coordinator role and Social Security income.
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Elections
California State Senate Race Becomes Costliest of the Cycle
PN Team • 1 day ago
A Los Angeles-area state Senate race between labor-backed West Hollywood City Councilmember John Erickson and business-supported media consultant Brian Goldsmith has become California's most expensive state Senate general election contest this cycle, driven by heavy outside spending. The district, covering Malibu, Santa Monica, the Pacific Palisades, Beverly Hills and West Hollywood, carries a 12-year term limit as both seek to succeed termed-out Sen. Ben Allen.
Business groups have targeted Erickson with attack spending, while tech-linked donors and Goldsmith's own personal funds have boosted his campaign; labor groups opposing Goldsmith have spent far less. Nancy Pelosi recently endorsed Goldsmith. Ads focus on affordability, housing, public safety and partisan loyalty, reflecting a broader business-labor struggle over California Democratic Party direction.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Referenced as the party whose internal business-labor struggle frames the race.
- California Referenced factually as the state where the race occurs.
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Elections
DOJ presses court to block California ballots tied to alleged noncitizen voter list
PN Team • 1 week ago
The Justice Department is urging a federal judge to rule quickly on its bid to stop California from counting ballots cast by people on a federal list of more than 20,000 potential noncitizens. The request came after Secretary of State Shirley Weber and L.A. County registrar Dean Logan did not review the list on the DOJ's timeline; California's Attorney General Rob Bonta has moved to dismiss the suit, calling it legally weak. Federal officials separately charged 28 legal permanent residents with voter fraud-related offenses this week. In a related case, a federal judge blocked the Department of Homeland Security from using its own noncitizen-voter list, finding it unreliable. State audits show noncitizen voting is rare.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Rob Bonta Bonta is shown pushing back against the DOJ suit as legally weak, a neutral-to-mildly favorable portrayal of a state official defending state processes.
- California California is the subject of the voter list dispute but mostly factual context without strong reputational framing.
- Los Angeles County, California L.A. County's registrar is mentioned regarding the list review delay, a mild factual reference.
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Elections
California Counties Rebuff DOJ Push to Flag Noncitizen Ballots
PN Team • 1 day ago
Santa Clara County rejected a DOJ demand for data on 902 voters it suspects are noncitizens and to set aside their ballots, calling it unlawful and infeasible before Election Day; San Mateo and Contra Costa counties raised similar objections, noting the DOJ letters carry no court order. The dispute escalated after a federal judge and a 9th Circuit panel both rejected a related Trump administration effort to block roughly 20,000 California ballots statewide, calling the claims about noncitizen voters not credible and the intervention unconstitutional. The DOJ has appealed again. Gov. Newsom says California is deploying election attorneys to monitor DOJ observers at polling sites.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump administration's intervention is described as unconstitutional and based on non-credible claims.
- Gavin Newsom Newsom portrayed as proactively defending election integrity by deploying attorneys.
- Local government Counties portrayed as pushing back lawfully against federal overreach.
- Santa Clara County, California County portrayed as standing firm against an unlawful federal data demand.
- California State mentioned factually as the site of the voting dispute and legal rulings.
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Elections
DOJ sues California after noncitizen voter list demand goes unmet
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
The Department of Justice escalated its dispute with California over a list of voters flagged as possible noncitizens, filing an emergency lawsuit Oct. 15 in federal court in the Central District of California after state officials missed a roughly 48-hour deadline set by Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter to review the names. DOJ had sent Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder Dean Logan and Secretary of State Shirley Weber a password-protected thumb drive naming more than 20,000 "likely noncitizens," identified through a multiagency USCIS and Homeland Security Investigations review of state voter and federal citizenship data. The 15-page complaint accuses California of violating the Constitution's supremacy clause by knowingly sending and counting mail ballots from likely noncitizens, and asks the court to order the state to set aside such ballots until citizenship is verified. Attorney General Todd Blanche called the alleged practice "state-facilitated voter fraud."
Logan's office declined to open the drive, citing data privacy protocols, while Weber argued federal officials provided insufficient evidence. Governor Gavin Newsom called the lawsuit a "sad, desperate attempt" by President Trump to suppress California voters weeks before Election Day. The suit is the administration's first direct attempt to block vote-counting, following a broader push including a blocked citizenship-verification mandate, a mail-voting executive order partly struck down by the Supreme Court, and roughly 30 similar voter-roll suits against other states with limited success. Senate Democrats have demanded oversight briefings on the administration's election-interference efforts.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's administration is accused by Newsom of attempting to suppress voters, adding to a narrative of politically charged election interference.
- California California is cast as noncompliant with a federal deadline and accused of facilitating fraud, though it also defends its privacy stance.
- Los Angeles County, California Los Angeles County is implicated through its registrar's refusal to comply with the federal request.
- Los Angeles Los Angeles is mentioned as the location of the county registrar's office.
- United States The United States is referenced contextually as the national backdrop for the federal-state dispute.
- United States Congress Senate Democrats' oversight demand is mentioned briefly as a procedural response.
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Elections
Justice Department warns California officials of prosecution risk over noncitizen ballots
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
The Trump administration has warned California election officials that processing ballots cast by suspected noncitizen voters could expose them to criminal investigation and prosecution. A letter from acting deputy attorney general Trent McCotter called noncitizen voting a federal crime and said officials who knowingly facilitate it risk being treated as aiders and abettors. The DOJ sued California after it missed a 48-hour deadline to cross-check a federal list of roughly 20,000 flagged names; federal prosecutors have since charged 28 green-card holders across California, 11 arrested, saying all appeared on that list. Secretary of State Shirley Weber called the demand unprecedented and said officials provided too little information to verify names. Governor Newsom calls the suit voter suppression; the dispute looms over competitive California House races in the midterms.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump The Trump administration is depicted as initiating a contentious crackdown that critics call voter suppression.
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is shown pushing back against the DOJ, framing the administration's actions as suppression, which casts him as a defender of state authority.
- California California is the subject of federal scrutiny and legal action over election procedures, a mildly negative portrayal.
- United States The United States is mentioned only as the national context for federal law and elections.
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Politics
California Legislature passes bills restricting ICE hiring, cooperation, and use of shock gloves
PN Team • 2 months ago
California's Democratic-led Legislature approved a package of bills aimed at limiting federal immigration enforcement tactics in the state. One measure, authored by Assembly member Mark Gonzalez and dubbed the "Get the Feds Out" Act, would bar agents and contractors involved in immigration enforcement from future employment with state and local government agencies, including police departments, with limited exceptions. A related bill from Assemblymember Isaac Bryan would prohibit law enforcement officers from moonlighting as federal immigration contractors. Lawmakers also passed AB 2760, the nation's first law banning law enforcement from using electric-shock gloves, a response to a Trump administration plan to buy the devices for ICE agents; the Department of Homeland Security has said it won't comply, calling the measure unconstitutional.
Additional bills would bar arrests near courthouses, impose a 25% tax on private immigration detention operators' income to fund immigration services, and let individuals sue federal agents over alleged civil rights violations. Republicans and immigration-restriction groups criticized the measures as legally vulnerable and politically motivated. Gov. Gavin Newsom has until Sept. 30 to sign or veto the bills.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's administration's plan to buy shock gloves for ICE agents is portrayed negatively, prompting the new ban.
- California California is portrayed as a proactive state government leading on immigration enforcement restrictions.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic-led Legislature is credited with passing the immigration-restriction bills, a favorable framing for the party's base.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are noted criticizing the bills, a mildly negative framing as obstructive dissenters.
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is mentioned only as having authority to sign or veto the bills, a neutral factual reference.
- Governor of California The Governor's office is mentioned only as the body that must sign or veto the bills, a neutral procedural reference.
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Local & State
California high-speed rail agency falls short on 2026 legislative agenda
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
California's High-Speed Rail Authority secured only one of the several legislative priorities it said were needed to keep the Merced-to-Bakersfield rail segment on schedule. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Senate Bill 1425, letting the authority issue permits to utilities, local governments and developers on authority-controlled land, but broader proposals—faster environmental reviews, expedited court dispute resolution, sales tax exemptions on construction materials, and new authority to tap local tax revenue near the rail line—stalled or were never formally introduced. Local officials strongly opposed the tax-revenue idea, calling it a raid on funds needed for services and road repairs.
A separate bill from Sen. Henry Stern to let the authority spend more state climate funds outside the Central Valley segment died in committee, as did a utility-relocation bill from Sen. Scott Wiener. The authority and lawmakers traded blame over the losses. The project, now estimated to cost $126-231 billion with full buildout by 2040, depends on $1 billion in annual state carbon-auction funding that could shrink under pending climate rule changes, adding further uncertainty to its timeline.
Sources:
Sentiment
- California California is the setting of the project's legislative and funding struggles, a mildly negative but mostly factual context.
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is noted neutrally for signing one bill, a minor procedural action.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced only tangentially through bills introduced by individual senators.
- Central Valley (California) Central Valley is referenced as the segment under construction without added reputational framing.
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Elections
DOJ Pressures California Counties Over Noncitizen Voter Rolls
PN Team • 5 days ago
The Department of Justice sent letters to election officials in every California county demanding they identify potential noncitizens on voter rolls within 48 hours, warning of "significant federal scrutiny" and possible prosecution for noncompliance. The letters, affecting roughly 20,000 voters statewide, requested sensitive data including Social Security numbers. Officials were told to segregate, not cancel, affected ballots. California's attorney general said the lists contain errors, including people living outside the counties named, and Los Angeles County found over 40% of a sampled group had already-canceled registrations, with most showing no voting history and nearly 4 in 10 born in the U.S.
The demand follows a DOJ lawsuit against California and a statewide sweep charging 28 people with illegal registration, coming days before the midterms as a 9th Circuit panel weighs the state's compliance obligations. The DOJ says it is not requesting a purge or cancellation of registrations, only collaboration, but federal prosecutors warned that clerks who process a noncitizen's ballot could face legal jeopardy. Governor Gavin Newsom accused the DOJ of sending lists containing people who never voted or who live in the wrong county, calling it fabricated evidence of fraud. County officials in Napa, Contra Costa, Inyo, Mendocino and elsewhere questioned the data's accuracy and said they are proceeding with ballot counting as usual despite the pressure.
Sentiment
- Gavin Newsom Shown pushing back against DOJ, accusing it of fabricating fraud evidence, a defensive but assertive portrayal.
- California State is central to the dispute, portrayed as targeted by federal pressure and defending its voter rolls.
- Los Angeles County's sampled data showed DOJ claims were largely inaccurate, reflecting poorly on the federal effort rather than the county.
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Climate
California enacts first-in-nation standards for wildfire smoke damage claims
PN Team • 1 month ago
Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed a package of bills establishing California's first statewide standards for testing and remediating smoke damage from wildfires, aimed at speeding recovery for survivors of the January 2025 Los Angeles County fires. Nearly two years later, many homeowners whose houses did not burn remain displaced amid disputes with insurers over who pays for smoke-damage testing and cleanup; the state Insurance Department estimates more than 13,000 such claims stemmed from the fires.
Assembly Bill 1642 directs the Department of Toxic Substances Control to set lead and asbestos testing standards by 2028 and broader contaminant standards by 2029, with existing federal and state rules applying in the interim. AB 1795 creates a legal presumption that smoke damage in a fire zone originated from the fire, requiring insurers to cover testing, remediation and alternative living expenses until a home is confirmed safe to reoccupy. Additional bills establish a statewide mortgage forbearance program for homes deemed uninhabitable after disasters and extend forbearance to 24 months for fire survivors. Advocacy group Eaton Fire Residents United, whose testing found lingering contaminants even after professional cleanup, backed the changes. Insurers and local governments remain in separate disputes over smoke-damage claim handling.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is portrayed favorably as signing legislation to help wildfire survivors and address a significant consumer protection gap.
- California California is credited with pioneering first-in-nation standards to protect wildfire survivors.
- Governor of California Mentioned as the office signing the bills, associated with a proactive policy response to wildfire recovery issues.
- Los Angeles County, California Referenced as the site of ongoing hardship for fire survivors still displaced amid insurance disputes.
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