Who Will Win California’s 12th Congressional District House Race?

Jury selection began this week in the federal corruption trial of former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, her partner Andre Jones, and recycling contractor executives David Duong and Andy Duong. Prosecutors allege the four, along with political operative Mario Juarez, orchestrated a scheme in which the Duongs financed a $75,000 campaign mailer to help elect Thao in 2022 and arranged a lucrative no-show job for Jones at Evolutionary Homes, a startup housing company. In return, Thao allegedly promised to steer city contracts to the Duongs' firm, California Waste Solutions, extend its recycling contract, and help the housing company secure a deal to sell units to the city.

All four defendants face bribery and honest services fraud conspiracy charges, with maximum sentences up to 20 years. They have pleaded not guilty. Juarez has already pleaded guilty and is expected to testify as the prosecution's star witness, along with former San Leandro councilman Bryan Azevedo, who also pleaded guilty. The case follows FBI raids in June 2024 and Thao's recall by Oakland voters that November. Prosecutors expect to present their case through mid-November.

California's Democratic-led Legislature approved a package of bills aimed at limiting federal immigration enforcement tactics in the state. One measure, authored by Assembly member Mark Gonzalez and dubbed the "Get the Feds Out" Act, would bar agents and contractors involved in immigration enforcement from future employment with state and local government agencies, including police departments, with limited exceptions. A related bill from Assemblymember Isaac Bryan would prohibit law enforcement officers from moonlighting as federal immigration contractors. Lawmakers also passed AB 2760, the nation's first law banning law enforcement from using electric-shock gloves, a response to a Trump administration plan to buy the devices for ICE agents; the Department of Homeland Security has said it won't comply, calling the measure unconstitutional.

Additional bills would bar arrests near courthouses, impose a 25% tax on private immigration detention operators' income to fund immigration services, and let individuals sue federal agents over alleged civil rights violations. Republicans and immigration-restriction groups criticized the measures as legally vulnerable and politically motivated. Gov. Gavin Newsom has until Sept. 30 to sign or veto the bills.

Contra Costa County supervisors voted unanimously Tuesday to adopt a policy restricting county cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, aligning the county with other Bay Area jurisdictions. The policy bars county resources from being used to assist federal immigration operations unless a judicial warrant is presented, and directs staff to route enforcement requests to legal counsel or designated officials. It largely follows a model policy released by state Attorney General Rob Bonta under Senate Bill 580, which requires local governments to adopt similar protections by the start of 2027.

Debate centered on whether to enact the protections as a policy or a stronger ordinance; an ordinance motion failed on a split vote, with supporters arguing it would offer more durable protection and opponents favoring a policy's faster implementation and easier amendment. Other Bay Area counties, cities, and a school district already have comparable measures in place. County employees who violate the policy face disciplinary action.

Democratic Rep. Josh Harder faces Republican John McBride in the general election for California's 9th Congressional District, a rematch after McBride failed to advance past the primary in 2024. Harder, first elected in 2018 and representing the 9th District since 2022 redistricting, won 60% of the June primary vote to McBride's 23%.

The district, centered in the northern San Joaquin Valley with parts of Contra Costa County, was redrawn ahead of this cycle to favor Harder's reelection, trimming areas like Lodi and Stockton while adding Antioch. It was previously one of two California districts to back Donald Trump in 2024 while also electing a Democrat to Congress.

Harder, a former venture capitalist, has focused on eliminating the gas tax, promoting alternative energy projects, and lowering healthcare costs, including prescription drug prices. McBride, a longtime strength and conditioning coach and Central Valley resident, is emphasizing affordability, a Make America Healthy Again-aligned healthcare approach, agriculture support, and tougher crime penalties.

California voters will decide in November whether to lift a 1988 ban that bars the state and most local governments from using public funds to finance political campaigns. Proposition 4 would authorize the state and most localities to establish public campaign financing systems for state and local races, similar to programs already used by seven charter cities including San Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland. Candidates would need to meet qualifying criteria, such as securing small-dollar donors or accepting spending caps, to receive funding as grants, matching funds or vouchers.

Supporters, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, the state Democratic Party and good-government groups, argue public financing counters the influence of big private money and could broaden the pool of candidates. Opponents, including Republican lawmakers and some newspaper editorial boards, say taxpayers shouldn't subsidize campaigns and criticize the measure for lacking enforcement specifics, since it exempts the state's campaign finance watchdog from overseeing local programs. Voters rejected similar measures in 2000 and 2010, and recent polling shows continued public skepticism toward Prop. 4.

Progressive Aisha Wahab has won the special election runoff in California's 14th Congressional District, defeating moderate Melissa Hernandez to fill the remainder of former Rep. Eric Swalwell's term through January. The Associated Press called the race two days after polls closed, with Wahab taking 53.1% of the vote to Hernandez's 46.9%. The margin narrowed sharply from Wahab's double-digit primary lead after AIPAC's United Democracy Project and allied groups spent more than $2.5 million since August boosting Hernandez and attacking Wahab, largely on local issues like public safety rather than Israel policy. Wahab, a state senator, will become the first Afghan American in Congress, having earlier become the first Afghan American elected to any U.S. public office when she won a Hayward City Council seat in 2018; she said the result shows her district "cannot be bought."

Wahab has been critical of Israel's actions in Gaza but did not center the issue in her campaign; she has also championed housing affordability and previously wrote a caste-discrimination bill vetoed by Gov. Gavin Newsom. She drew support from labor unions, the state Democratic Party, and J Street, while Hernandez, a BART director, was backed by police unions, AIPAC-aligned groups, and several Jewish Democratic members of Congress. Wahab succeeds Swalwell, who resigned in April amid sexual assault and harassment allegations he denies; federal agents recently seized his devices at a San Francisco airport and searched his D.C. home as investigations continue. Wahab and Hernandez will face off again in November for a full term beginning in 2027, in a district reshaped by redistricting to include part of Hernandez's former mayoral base in Dublin.

Voters in California's 14th congressional district head to the polls Tuesday to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned amid sexual assault allegations he denies. State Sen. Aisha Wahab, a progressive who has called for ending U.S. military aid to Israel, faces Melissa Hernandez, a moderate Democrat and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board president. With two Democrats on the ballot, the seat will stay in Democratic hands. Wahab led the June 16 primary by more than 20 points and remains the favorite, though Hernandez has more than doubled her in fundraising.

The race has drawn heavy outside spending tied to AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries. AIPAC's United Democracy Project and allied group Bold America have together spent roughly $3.7 million opposing Wahab and backing Hernandez, part of about $4.1 million in total outside spending on the race. Wahab has drawn counter-support from pro-Palestinian PAC American Priorities and J Street Action Fund, which accused AIPAC of trying to "buy a Democratic primary." Wahab has emphasized affordability and civil rights, while Hernandez has focused on public safety and cost of living.

The contest to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco has become a proxy fight over housing policy between two Democrats who each claim the progressive mantle. State Sen. Scott Wiener, an "abundance" and YIMBY advocate who authored permit-streamlining legislation, faces San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, who has Pelosi's endorsement and has opposed several major development and zoning changes in her district, citing tenant displacement and small-business concerns. Median one-bedroom rents in the city have topped $4,000, intensifying the debate over whether state intervention or local control best addresses the shortage.

The race also touches on Gaza policy, corporate PAC money, and campaign conduct, including a now-defunct AI chatbot mocking Chan that Wiener's campaign disavowed after backlash from Pelosi and other Democrats. Voters who backed a third primary candidate, Saikat Chakrabarti, remain a swing bloc heading into November, with the outcome likely to signal how San Francisco Democrats balance progressive identity against pro-housing "abundance" politics nationally.

John Turnacliff, chairman of the Marin County Republicans, has publicly retracted his claim that 73 dead people voted in the November Proposition 50 special election, which redrew California's congressional maps to favor Democrats. Speaking at a Marin County Board of Supervisors meeting, Turnacliff apologized to the board and to Registrar of Voters Natalie Adona, saying he could not substantiate the claim after further research.

The county had earlier reviewed the list Turnacliff's group submitted and found at most five deceased individuals on it, with no record of votes cast in their names after death. After buying subscriptions to Ancestry.com and another records database, Turnacliff found many people on his list were actually alive and said he "jumped the gun." He said he apologized to maintain a workable relationship with the registrar's office, though he stressed his retraction was not an admission that voter fraud doesn't exist. Turnacliff, who has scrutinized Marin's voter rolls since the 2020 election, said his group intends to keep investigating other alleged irregularities.

A Los Angeles-area state Senate race between labor-backed West Hollywood City Councilmember John Erickson and business-supported media consultant Brian Goldsmith has become California's most expensive state Senate general election contest this cycle, driven by heavy outside spending. The district, covering Malibu, Santa Monica, the Pacific Palisades, Beverly Hills and West Hollywood, carries a 12-year term limit as both seek to succeed termed-out Sen. Ben Allen.

Business groups have targeted Erickson with attack spending, while tech-linked donors and Goldsmith's own personal funds have boosted his campaign; labor groups opposing Goldsmith have spent far less. Nancy Pelosi recently endorsed Goldsmith. Ads focus on affordability, housing, public safety and partisan loyalty, reflecting a broader business-labor struggle over California Democratic Party direction.