Warren Petersen

A new HighGround poll shows Democrats ahead in Arizona's top statewide races one week before Election Day. Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs, Democrat Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin for secretary of state, and Democrat Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen for attorney general. The results are notable in a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 300,000 voters.

Leading GOP candidates have embraced or been endorsed by President Donald Trump, which helped in primaries but appears to be a drag in the general election as Trump's approval rating has slipped. Analysts note undecided voters remain limited, though races could still tighten before polls close.

A new HighGround poll shows Arizona Democrats leading Republicans across every major statewide race, despite the GOP holding a roughly 300,000-voter registration advantage in the state. Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs by 17 points, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leads Alexander Kolodin by 12 points, and Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Warren Petersen by 15 points. Democratic candidates for treasurer and superintendent also show high single-digit leads.

HighGround President Chuck Coughlin, whose firm is widely regarded as Arizona's top pollster, said the results surprised even him, estimating that 25-30% of Republican voters are not backing their party's candidates. Some voters cited dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and GOP leadership as a motivating factor. The Biggs campaign disputed the poll's credibility, pointing to Coughlin's firm's ties to a group funding pro-Hobbs advertising; Coughlin said the poll was self-funded. With three weeks until Election Day, the findings add uncertainty to several closely watched Arizona races.

Arizona's attorney general race is heating up as Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes and Republican challenger Warren Petersen, the state Senate president, faced off in their first televised debate. Mayes, who narrowly defeated Abe Hamadeh by 280 votes in 2022 in a recount-triggering finish, is seeking a second term against Petersen, who won the GOP nomination in July over Rodney Glassman.

The debate turned combative over law enforcement, with Petersen citing Mayes' past comments about masked immigration agents, which drew criticism from police groups and Gov. Katie Hobbs, while Mayes countered by pointing to Petersen's legislative voting record on police-related bills. The candidates also clashed over immigration detention facilities, including a $1.2 billion federally funded expansion in Florence, ICE's role in Arizona, and how to handle young migrants brought to the country as children. They split over data centers, with Petersen favoring expansion under local control and Mayes urging caution. Their sharpest divide remains relations with Washington: Mayes has filed more than 50 lawsuits against the Trump administration over mail-in ballot restrictions, tariffs, and vaccine rules, while Petersen, a strong Trump supporter, has pledged to drop those challenges if elected. Polling from AARP and Noble Predictive Insights shows Mayes with a modest lead, with about one in five voters still undecided.

Arizona's attorney general race pits Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes, who won the seat by just 280 votes in 2022, against Republican Warren Petersen, the state Senate president since 2021. Mayes points to actions against scams, fentanyl trafficking, corporate mergers and rising rents, while Petersen has campaigned on restoring the office's focus on crime, fraud and corruption, backed by endorsements from major law enforcement organizations.

Donald Trump looms large over the contest. Mayes has joined multiple lawsuits against Trump administration policies, including mail-in voting restrictions, tariffs and vaccine rules, and has defended abortion access after Arizona's near-total abortion ban was upheld. Petersen, a strong Trump ally who helped launch the 2020 election audit in Maricopa County, supports the abortion ban, backs restrictions on transgender athletes, and has pledged to support mass deportations. Polling shows Mayes with a modest lead, but with a large share of undecided voters, the race is expected to be one of Arizona's closest statewide contests this cycle.

A new poll from Noble Predictive Insights offers the first comprehensive look at Arizona's key statewide down-ballot races ahead of November. Democratic incumbent Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin by 6 points in the secretary of state race, while Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes holds a similar 6-point lead over Republican Warren Petersen for attorney general; both contests have roughly 20% undecided voters and a margin of error near 3%. The superintendent of public instruction race is tighter, with Republican Kimberly Yee leading Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz by just 3 points.

Political consultants from both parties say all three races remain competitive with weeks to go. Analysts point to Yee's name recognition from her time as state treasurer, Mayes' crossover appeal among moderate Republicans, and lingering effects of Petersen's contentious primary as key dynamics. Both sides agree independent voters will likely decide the outcomes, making these races worth watching for prediction markets tracking Arizona's statewide offices.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta has publicly pushed back on Paramount Skydance's tactics in the antitrust suit over its $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, calling a recent motion to force a $1.88 billion bond onto taxpayers a sign of "desperation" and dismissing threats to relocate Paramount out of California as ineffective pressure. Bonta, who leads 12 state attorneys general suing to block the merger ahead of a March trial, said he remains open to settlement talks but only through "structural," not "behavioral," remedies — such as divesting cable channels rather than pledging future theatrical output.

Bonta noted some shifting positions among stakeholders, with the DGA, IATSE and Cinema United now favoring settlement, though WGA, SAG-AFTRA and the Teamsters still oppose the deal. He said Governor Newsom and gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra's comments favoring negotiation align with his own preference to resolve disputes outside court, while insisting the case remains a straightforward antitrust matter unaffected by press-freedom concerns over CNN or CBS News ownership. Arizona lawmakers continue to scrutinize taxpayer exposure from the bond dispute.