Arizona’s 5th Congressional District House Race 2026
Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, anchored in the East Valley suburbs of Phoenix including Mesa and parts of Scottsdale, holds its 2026 midterm House election this November. The district has long leaned Republican, making the general election contest a key data point for control of the U.S. House. Candidates from both major parties are expected to file and campaign ahead of the primary season.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House hinges on a small number of competitive and lean districts nationwide, and AZ-05 is one of the seats analysts track for shifts in suburban voting patterns. The outcome will shape which party sets the legislative agenda for the second half of the decade. Local turnout trends here often mirror broader Sun Belt political dynamics.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question markets pose is simple: which party’s nominee wins the general election in November 2026. Because the district has a partisan lean, the contract effectively isolates how much that advantage holds up against national political headwinds. Traders are weighing incumbency, candidate strength, and turnout shifts rather than the mechanics of the race itself.
Total Volume
$84.5k
Kalshi $28.9k · Polymarket $55.6k
Leading Market
Mark Lamb
Kalshi 87% · Polymarket 86%
Mark Lamb Volume
$62.8k
Kalshi $17.4k · Polymarket $45.3k
Mark Lamb 24h Change
+2.00%
Kalshi +1.00% · Polymarket +2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark LambRepublican Party | 87.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Mark Lamb on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 86.0¢ | 5% | , trade Mark Lamb on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Elizabeth LeeDemocratic Party | 15.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Elizabeth Lee on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 16.0¢ | 5% | , trade Elizabeth Lee on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark LambRepublican Party | $62,754.52 | ||
| Elizabeth LeeDemocratic Party | $21,774.48 |