Andy Biggs

A new HighGround poll shows Democrats ahead in Arizona's top statewide races one week before Election Day. Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs, Democrat Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin for secretary of state, and Democrat Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen for attorney general. The results are notable in a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 300,000 voters.

Leading GOP candidates have embraced or been endorsed by President Donald Trump, which helped in primaries but appears to be a drag in the general election as Trump's approval rating has slipped. Analysts note undecided voters remain limited, though races could still tighten before polls close.

A new HighGround poll shows Arizona Democrats leading Republicans across every major statewide race, despite the GOP holding a roughly 300,000-voter registration advantage in the state. Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs by 17 points, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leads Alexander Kolodin by 12 points, and Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Warren Petersen by 15 points. Democratic candidates for treasurer and superintendent also show high single-digit leads.

HighGround President Chuck Coughlin, whose firm is widely regarded as Arizona's top pollster, said the results surprised even him, estimating that 25-30% of Republican voters are not backing their party's candidates. Some voters cited dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and GOP leadership as a motivating factor. The Biggs campaign disputed the poll's credibility, pointing to Coughlin's firm's ties to a group funding pro-Hobbs advertising; Coughlin said the poll was self-funded. With three weeks until Election Day, the findings add uncertainty to several closely watched Arizona races.

A new poll shared with The Daily Signal by the League of American Workers finds nearly 80% of Arizona voters hold an unfavorable view of public education in the state, a rare point of agreement across party lines. A majority of respondents, including 67.2% of Democrats, say taxpayers are getting a poor return on public education spending, and only a quarter of Arizona eighth graders are proficient in reading. Despite that dissatisfaction, voters favor the state's Empowerment Scholarship Account program, which funds private-school tuition, by roughly 16 points.

The same survey, conducted October 3-6 among 1,513 likely voters, shows Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs leading Republican Rep. Andy Biggs 48.9% to 43.2% in the governor's race, though both candidates have weak favorability. Hobbs' veto of a ban on sex-transition procedures for minors appears to be a net negative for her. The poll also found strong support for immigration enforcement cooperation, skepticism toward mass migration and China, a clear preference for capitalism over socialism, and continued concern over personal finances under the Trump administration.

Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Andy Biggs said Tuesday he does not support the war in Iran, marking a break from President Trump, who has endorsed him. Biggs made the comment while campaigning on affordability, saying he wants to lower Arizona's cost of living, eliminate the state income tax, cut regulations and expand energy production, as well as codify a repeal of Governor Katie Hobbs' housing moratorium.

Pressed on whether his congressional votes against measures limiting Trump's war powers contributed to rising gas prices, Biggs said he had made his opposition to the war known to the administration but that the outcome was "outside my reach." He called the situation "unfortunate."

The remarks come as GOP support for Trump's Iran policy softens; polling shows Republican approval of his handling of the conflict fell from 73% to 60% between March and August, while a separate survey put approval of his cost-of-living response at 44%. With early voting approaching, affordability and the Iran conflict's economic fallout are becoming central flashpoints in Arizona's governor's race.

Arizona's 2026 governor's race pits Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs against Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, with Green Party candidate Risa Lombardo and No Labels candidate Teri Ann Hourihan also on the ballot. Hobbs, who defeated Kari Lake in 2022, is emphasizing tax cuts, medical debt relief, and a tougher stance on immigration, while distancing herself from some national Democratic positions. Biggs, a longtime Trump ally and former House Freedom Caucus chair who backed efforts to block certification of the 2020 election results, has Trump's endorsement and support from Turning Point Action. Both campaigns are trading attack ads over child-sex-abuse legislation records.

Republicans hold a voter registration edge, but low turnout and Trump's sagging approval ratings could favor Democrats, echoing 2018's "Blue Wave." For the first time, each candidate has a running mate for a newly created lieutenant governor post: Biggs chose state Sen. Sine Kerr, while Hobbs picked former Republican Mesa Mayor John Giles, now an independent, to court centrist voters.

Governor Katie Hobbs has spent more than $10 million on television advertising against Republican challenger Andy Biggs, who has yet to air a traditional TV campaign and remains largely confined to online and social media messaging. The gap has sparked frustration among Arizona Republicans, prompting state party Chair Sergio Arellano to address concerns in a newsletter, promising "more ads are on the way" while defending a digital-first strategy as fiscally conservative.

Former state party chair Gina Swoboda criticized the approach, arguing available funds should be spent now rather than held back, warning that even loyal Republican voters are being saturated with Democratic messaging. Arellano said the newsletter responded to grassroots frustration over what he called one-sided media coverage of Hobbs. Biggs is expected to get a seven-figure ad buy soon, though it would still trail Hobbs' spending significantly. Analysts note the imbalance risks letting Hobbs define Biggs to voters before he can respond.