Alexander Kolodin

A new HighGround poll shows Democrats ahead in Arizona's top statewide races one week before Election Day. Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs, Democrat Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin for secretary of state, and Democrat Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen for attorney general. The results are notable in a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 300,000 voters.

Leading GOP candidates have embraced or been endorsed by President Donald Trump, which helped in primaries but appears to be a drag in the general election as Trump's approval rating has slipped. Analysts note undecided voters remain limited, though races could still tighten before polls close.

A new HighGround poll shows Arizona Democrats leading Republicans across every major statewide race, despite the GOP holding a roughly 300,000-voter registration advantage in the state. Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs by 17 points, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leads Alexander Kolodin by 12 points, and Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Warren Petersen by 15 points. Democratic candidates for treasurer and superintendent also show high single-digit leads.

HighGround President Chuck Coughlin, whose firm is widely regarded as Arizona's top pollster, said the results surprised even him, estimating that 25-30% of Republican voters are not backing their party's candidates. Some voters cited dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and GOP leadership as a motivating factor. The Biggs campaign disputed the poll's credibility, pointing to Coughlin's firm's ties to a group funding pro-Hobbs advertising; Coughlin said the poll was self-funded. With three weeks until Election Day, the findings add uncertainty to several closely watched Arizona races.

A new poll from Noble Predictive Insights offers the first comprehensive look at Arizona's key statewide down-ballot races ahead of November. Democratic incumbent Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin by 6 points in the secretary of state race, while Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes holds a similar 6-point lead over Republican Warren Petersen for attorney general; both contests have roughly 20% undecided voters and a margin of error near 3%. The superintendent of public instruction race is tighter, with Republican Kimberly Yee leading Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz by just 3 points.

Political consultants from both parties say all three races remain competitive with weeks to go. Analysts point to Yee's name recognition from her time as state treasurer, Mayes' crossover appeal among moderate Republicans, and lingering effects of Petersen's contentious primary as key dynamics. Both sides agree independent voters will likely decide the outcomes, making these races worth watching for prediction markets tracking Arizona's statewide offices.