Senate midterms

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who once pledged to be President Trump's strongest Senate ally, is now striking a more independent tone as she faces a tougher-than-expected challenge from Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa, a state Trump has carried three times. Hinson has continued to campaign alongside Trump and feature him in ads, but has also pledged to be "a thorn in his side" if he acts against Iowa's interests, a notable break from other Republican Senate candidates in red states.

The shift reflects signs of eroding enthusiasm for Trump among some of his own supporters ahead of the midterm election, adding uncertainty to a race in a traditionally reliable Republican state.

More than 6.4 million Texans cast ballots during early voting, surpassing the state's previous non-presidential-year record of 5.5 million set in 2018. The figures exclude mail-in ballots. Analysts point to the closely watched Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, now the most expensive Senate contest in history with over $560 million in combined ad spending, as the main driver of turnout. The governor's race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, plus growth in suburban counties like Collin County, also contributed. Some experts project total turnout could reach 10 million votes, which would break the state's all-time midterm record.

Election Day voting runs Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Iowa, long reliable MAGA territory, is showing signs of competitiveness. Polls show Democratic state auditor Rob Sand consistently ahead of Republican Zack Lahn in the governor's race, despite outgoing Gov. Kim Reynolds winning by 19 points four years ago and Trump carrying the state by over 13 points. Grassroots activity has grown alongside the polling shift, including No Kings rallies in Dubuque and Des Moines and early-voting pushes. In the Senate race to replace retiring Joni Ernst, Trump-endorsed Republican Ashley Hinson faces organized opposition from Iowans for Decency, a bipartisan PAC formed by her former teachers and fellow alumni, ahead of Democrat Josh Turek's campaign.

Ohio voters on Nov. 3 will pick a successor to term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine, with Republican Vivek Ramaswamy facing Democrat Amy Acton and Libertarian Don Kissick. The same ballot includes a special U.S. Senate election to fill the remainder of JD Vance's term, pitting incumbent appointee Jon Husted against challengers; the winner serves until 2028. All 15 Ohio U.S. House seats are also up, under a new Republican-favorable congressional map targeting Democratic-held districts. In Kentucky, Republican Andy Barr and Democrat Charles Booker are competing for the seat long held by retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Indiana will re-elect its House delegation, and ballot measures appear in all three states.