Who Will Win Alabama’s 2028 Senate Race

President Donald Trump drew a large crowd to the Mitchell Center in Mobile, Alabama, returning to the city where he held an early breakout rally during his 2016 campaign. The stop kicked off a broader fall campaign push ahead of the November midterms, with the White House planning near-daily appearances in competitive states.

Trump used the rally to back Senator Tommy Tuberville in his gubernatorial bid against former Democratic Senator Doug Jones, Representative Barry Moore's campaign for Tuberville's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat, and state Representative Rhett Marques, who is running for Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District currently held by Democratic Representative Shomari Figures. Republicans see the seat as a pickup opportunity following redistricting.

Earlier in the day, Governor Kay Ivey and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy broke ground on the $3.2 billion Mobile River Bridge and Bayway project. Strategists noted the rally's location also extends media reach into the conservative Florida Panhandle, reinforcing turnout momentum for Republicans heading into election day.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom capped a multi-state "take it back tour" with eight public events across South Carolina, plus stops in Alabama and North Carolina, intensifying speculation about a 2028 Democratic presidential run. In North Carolina, Newsom campaigned for U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper in Charlotte and rallied Labor Day weekend crowds in Monroe, urging Democrats to focus on the 2026 midterms rather than 2028. He accused Trump of ruthlessness, corruption and attempting to "nationalize" elections through mail-in voting restrictions, telling supporters it's time to "fight fire with fire." Newsom told the Associated Press a 2028 decision could come before year's end.

Voters and strategists increasingly frame California itself as Newsom's central liability, with critics warning his state's liberal image could hurt him against rivals like Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans, including North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley and local officials, mocked the visits with "Wrong Coast" signs and accused him of trying to "California" their states. Newsom's team counters that his progressive record on health care, wages and climate could be an asset in a Democratic primary. South Carolina, hosting Democrats' first 2028 primary, remains a key early proving ground alongside hopefuls like Cory Booker.

With Alabama's Nov. 3 election 10 days out, forecasters have shifted two marquee races. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the U.S. Senate contest between Republican Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican," citing polls showing Tuberville leading by just over 10 points. Cook Political Report upgraded Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures' odds of retaining his U.S. House seat against Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, moving that race from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican."

The campaigns have grown contentious: Tuberville, also running for governor, released a policy outline and faced backlash over a proposed state-level DOGE effort and comments on pastors and migration; Jones condemned an AI-driven attack page funded by the state GOP. Both House candidates called for a Republican state lawmaker facing human trafficking-related charges to resign.

Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones escalated their fight for Alabama governor this week, trading accusations over socialism, public education and public safety. In a Mobile radio interview, Tuberville labeled Democrats socialists, tied Jones to figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Zohran Mamdani and Stacey Abrams, and called public schools "government schools" that fail to teach basics while defending the CHOOSE Act as a way to force competition. Jones rejected the socialist label, pointed to his record passing bipartisan bills in the Senate, and said he would phase out the CHOOSE Act to redirect funding to public schools.

Jones also renewed his push for a debate, accusing Tuberville of avoiding unscripted questions, a challenge Tuberville did not accept, instead citing his 2020 Senate win over Jones. On crime, Tuberville pledged more troopers and "law and order" without naming specific communities, while Jones countered by emphasizing his experience as a federal prosecutor. Abrams is set to campaign with Jones in Huntsville, fueling Tuberville's effort to nationalize the race.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Sen. Tommy Tuberville argued Alabama voters should elect him governor because President Trump would not extend the same support to Democratic nominee Doug Jones. "He's not going to help Doug Jones," Tuberville said on "The Jeff Poor Show," adding "that's not going to happen."

Tuberville credited Trump with directing an estimated $20 to $30 billion toward Alabama's economy, though he did not detail which programs or projects made up that figure. He said he hopes to keep working with Trump during the final two years of his presidency on jobs and federal investment in the state. Tuberville did not clarify whether a Jones win would mean Alabama losing federal assistance. He also framed the broader 2026 midterms as a referendum on Trump's agenda, telling voters that backing Republicans down the ballot would determine how much support the president retains in Washington. The Jones campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) begins a four-day "Take it Back" tour through South Carolina, North Carolina and Alabama this week, notably skipping Georgia, home to Sen. Jon Ossoff's competitive reelection race. Newsom aides say the omission reflects scheduling constraints, not distance from Ossoff — Newsom has raised nearly $142,000 for the senator this cycle and more than $2.2 million for southern Democrats overall, and his office is discussing future Georgia dates before November.

Strategists note the arrangement may benefit both sides: Ossoff can keep his race focused on kitchen-table issues rather than 2028 speculation, while Newsom, a frontrunner in early Democratic presidential polling, targets Super Tuesday states. Ossoff's own national profile has grown after a viral confrontation involving Trump, and recent polling shows him gaining traction as a potential future contender even as he insists his focus is reelection. The tour also comes as South Carolina prepares to vote first in the 2028 Democratic primary calendar.

Massachusetts lawmakers are considering companion bills (H.3351/S.2134) to create a permanent state commission focused on Muslim residents' interests, including recommending Muslim appointees for government boards. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), a candidate for Alabama governor, publicly rejected the idea on X, saying no similar measure would pass in Alabama under his watch.

The response has fueled broader commentary urging Tuberville to go further than a social media post, proposing that Alabama pursue legislation asserting the state's Protestant Christian heritage and testing constitutional limits on religious liberty, drawing comparisons to past Alabama fights over Ten Commandments displays and local zoning disputes involving Muslim institutions, such as a withdrawn rezoning request in Hoover. Proponents frame this as a "history and tradition" argument akin to reasoning used in other Supreme Court cases, while acknowledging existing First Amendment doctrine sharply limits what any state could actually enact. The episode highlights ongoing national tension over religious identity, government recognition of minority faiths, and the boundaries of state authority.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has moved South Carolina's Senate race to "lean Republican" from "likely Republican" and Mississippi's to "likely Republican" from "solid Republican," citing candidate quality and Democrats' broader push into red territory. Democrats are backing the shift with money: the Senate Majority PAC announced a $1.2 million ad buy in Mississippi attacking incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, boosting Democratic nominee Scott Colom. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews is challenging appointed Sen. Darline Graham. Both races remain steep climbs for Democrats given past Republican margins, but the ratings change adds two more contests to the list Republicans must defend amid economic headwinds ahead of the midterms.

Florida's two marquee 2026 statewide races present unusual racial pairings, and candidates are handling the dynamic very differently. In the Senate race, Democrat Angie Nixon, a progressive from Jacksonville, faces Republican Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general appointed to the seat Marco Rubio vacated. In the governor's race, Republican Byron Donalds, who could become Florida's first Black governor, is running against David Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat with strong Black voter support.

Analysts say Donalds has mostly avoided Black-specific outreach and race-focused messaging, emphasizing the economy and school choice instead, reflecting a common strategy for Black conservative candidates wary of alienating their base. Despite recent efforts to court Black voters, polling shows Jolly holding a commanding lead among Black voters. Nixon, by contrast, has leaned into discussing race directly while also courting white working-class voters with economic messaging, trailing Moody in current polling but with strategists calling her a credible underdog capable of winning with strong turnout.

Donalds has continued to draw national attention on other issues, recently criticizing far-left Florida Democrats who have called to abolish ICE amid the broader immigration debate.