Maine Senate margin of victory

Maine's 2026 Senate race is drawing national attention as Republican incumbent Susan Collins seeks a sixth term against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, in a contest seen as pivotal to control of the chamber. Collins has emphasized independence from President Trump during campaign events, including a recent debate. Former Democratic-turned-independent Senator Joe Manchin, who endorsed Collins and called her "the soul of the Senate," is set to campaign alongside her at an event in central Maine this week. The race is one of several competitive statewide contests in Maine, alongside governor and congressional races, making the state a key battleground for the 2026 midterms.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigned in Portland, Maine, for Democrat Troy Jackson, who is challenging Sen. Susan Collins in one of the midterms' most closely watched Senate races. Jackson, a logger from rural northern Maine, entered the race after Graham Platner's campaign collapsed amid sexual assault allegations. Ocasio-Cortez praised Jackson's willingness to campaign alongside a progressive New York lawmaker in a politically different state, and touted policies including Medicare for All and abortion and transgender rights. Jackson addressed concerns from Mainers wary of progressive politics, drawing on his own working-class upbringing. Democrats need to flip Maine and several other GOP-held seats to retake Senate control.

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll finds Democrat Troy Jackson leading Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) 50 percent to 46 percent, with less than a month until Election Day. The race is among the most closely watched of the midterms, as Collins is the only Senate Republican defending her seat this cycle in a state that backed Kamala Harris in 2024, and the outcome could help determine control of the chamber, where Republicans hold a narrow majority.

The survey, conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, shows Collins struggling with President Trump's unpopularity in Maine, with a majority of voters saying she has been too supportive of him. Jackson, a former Maine Senate president who entered the race after Graham Platner's campaign collapsed amid scandal, leads on affordability, health care, abortion and corruption, while Collins holds a wide edge on securing federal funding and bipartisan dealmaking. Collins has cast Jackson as too liberal for Maine, citing his past support for Medicare for All, while highlighting his earlier opposition to abortion rights.

Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Troy Jackson (D) met Tuesday for the first of four scheduled debates in Maine's closely watched Senate race, with polls showing the contest a near-even toss-up that could help decide Senate control. Jackson repeatedly pressed Collins over her vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh, linking it to the Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade; Collins said she disagreed with Kavanaugh's ruling but did not believe he misled her on the issue being "settled law."

Collins emphasized her pro-choice stance and independence from President Trump, disputing claims she votes with him 96 percent of the time and noting her opposition to his tax and spending package's final passage. Jackson countered that her earlier committee vote advancing the bill made her complicit. The two also split on immigration enforcement following a fatal ICE shooting in Biddeford, with Jackson calling for disbanding ICE and Collins favoring reform. The candidates also sparred over Trump's tariffs on Canada: Collins touted securing exemptions for road salt, concrete and pulp, while Jackson argued the carve-outs did little to offset broader price increases. Jackson entered the race after progressive primary winner Graham Platner withdrew amid misconduct allegations; three more debates are set over the coming weeks.

Ohio has emerged as the most expensive political advertising battleground in the country ahead of the 2026 midterms, with AdImpact tracking roughly $307 million in TV ad spending and reservations as of September 11 — more than Texas, Michigan, Maine, or any other Senate contest. Republicans have spent about $169 million versus $138 million from Democrats and allied groups, with six weeks still remaining before Election Day.

The spending surge centers on the Senate rematch between former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by JD Vance. Brown's 2024 race against Bernie Moreno was already the nation's most expensive Senate contest that cycle. Ohio's gubernatorial race, featuring Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy, is also drawing heavy ad buys. Local TV stations are nearing saturation, and analysts expect spending to keep rising through September, underscoring Ohio's outsized role in determining Senate control.

A New York Times/Siena University poll released Sept. 24 shows Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, leading Democratic challenger Troy Jackson 49% to 46%, the best result for Collins in any public poll since Jackson entered the race in July. A separate UMass Lowell/YouGov poll taken earlier in September had Jackson ahead by five points, underscoring how close and unsettled the race remains.

Collins is the only Republican senator up for reelection in a state Trump largely lost in 2024, making the seat a top Democratic target. She has historically outperformed polling, having won comfortably in 2020 despite trailing throughout that campaign. The Times poll was conducted largely before a Sept. 22 ProPublica report alleging a pay-to-play scheme tied to her 2020 campaign, which Collins denies, calling it a "partisan hit job." Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, entered the race after primary winner Graham Platner dropped out amid misconduct allegations. Voters see Collins favorably despite her largely pro-Trump voting record in 2025, while a majority in Maine disapprove of Trump's job performance.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills, 77, has entered the 2026 Senate race as a Democrat, aiming to unseat longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Mills, recruited by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, framed her campaign as a fight against President Trump's agenda, arguing Collins has failed to sufficiently oppose it despite occasional criticism. She pointed to a widely shared exchange with Trump over transgender athletes as evidence of her willingness to confront him directly. Collins, who has not yet announced her own reelection campaign, did not respond to Mills' launch, though a Republican campaign group criticized Mills over her positions on LGBTQ rights and immigration.

Mills first faces a Democratic primary against Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and political newcomer endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders who has drawn large crowds statewide, along with brewery founder Dan Kleban. Maine is considered a top Democratic pickup opportunity, as it's the only state Trump lost in 2024 with a Republican incumbent senator up in 2026, in a Senate currently split 53-47 in Republicans' favor.

Maine Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Troy Jackson visited People's Inclusive Welding, a South Portland trade school, during a Labor Day weekend tour of working Mainers. Jackson praised the shop's inclusive approach and pledged support for apprenticeship programs, saying inclusion is key to improving conditions across the state and country. Shop owner Jo Remillard said the school's "inclusive" branding has complicated its eligibility for some federal workforce-training funding.

The school's handbook outlines a zero-tolerance policy covering discrimination including "fatphobia," alongside racism, sexism, and other forms of bias, and states police will not be called into the shop space. Remillard and board member Arlo Hennessey have spoken publicly about equity and representation gaps in the skilled trades.

Jackson became the Democratic nominee in July after Graham Platner withdrew amid a sexual assault allegation he denies. Jackson is challenging incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and has faced scrutiny over past conduct allegations and a legislative record including votes on gender-affirming care access and sex work decriminalization.