Who Will Lead Senate Democrats as Minority Leader in the 120th Congress

The Senate adjourned for a five-week recess until after the midterm elections, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressing confidence Democrats will retake the majority, citing strong candidates and a favorable political climate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans still expect to hold their majority, though likely narrower, given the map favors states Trump carried previously. Democratic strategists remain split between targeting flippable states like Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa versus reach states such as Mississippi and Florida. Separately, Cook Political Report shifted its Florida and Texas governor's races toward Democrats, now rating both Lean Republican rather than safer categories, citing Trump's weak approval ratings and a difficult midterm environment for the GOP, though Republicans remain favored in both pricey, traditionally red states.

Other developments: a bipartisan Senate permitting reform deal faces resistance in the House, where Democrats say they'd rather wait until after the election to negotiate from a stronger position. House Judiciary's Jamie Raskin asked federal watchdogs to probe taxpayer-funded Trump administration TV ads ahead of the midterms. Schumer also said he'll push AI safety legislation next year, with some Republican support, while Third Way unveiled a Supreme Court reform platform featuring 18-year term limits and an ethics code, aiming to shape Democratic discourse through 2028.

Many Republicans facing tough November races are avoiding next week's GOP midterm convention in Dallas, the first held by a major party in over four decades. A POLITICO survey found roughly 45 of more than 70 GOP candidates and members contacted are skipping or undecided, citing scheduling conflicts, high attendance fees, and reluctance to appear alongside President Donald Trump, who is set to headline with Vice President JD Vance. Top leaders including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune plan to attend, along with 2028 hopefuls like Sen. Ted Cruz.

Separately, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is weighing disciplinary action against Reps. Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after the two Democrats helped Republicans pass a procedural rule, prompting a referral to the caucus's rules panel. Other pending items include a bipartisan bill policing lawmaker misconduct, a possible September floor vote on Russia sanctions legislation, and an unresolved GOP split over regulating data centers ahead of the midterms.

Adam Hamilton, the Democratic candidate challenging Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) for his U.S. Senate seat, told CNN he would not commit to supporting Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic Leader if elected. Hamilton's stance reflects a broader unease within parts of the Democratic Party over Schumer's leadership, as some candidates in competitive or red-leaning states seek to distance themselves from national party figures to appeal to independent and moderate voters.

The comments add Hamilton to a small but growing list of Democratic candidates and officials publicly declining to pledge loyalty to Schumer, amid ongoing debate about the party's direction and leadership following recent electoral setbacks. For prediction markets tracking control of the Senate and internal Democratic leadership dynamics, such statements signal potential friction that could affect coalition unity if Democrats gain seats in 2026, though they carry limited immediate practical effect given Hamilton's underdog status in a Republican-leaning state.

Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Kansas, said he would not support Sen. Charles Schumer's bid to remain Senate Democratic leader, citing a need for "fresh ideas" and "fresh people." Hamilton, a Methodist pastor and former Republican running as a centrist against GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, made the comments Sunday on ABC's "This Week." He has held a slight edge in recent polling, fueling Democratic hopes of flipping the seat as part of a path back to a Senate majority.

No Democrat has formally challenged Schumer's leadership, but Hamilton named Sens. Tim Kaine, Mark Kelly, and Elissa Slotkin as senators he respects who could fill the role. He also pointed to Vice President J.D. Vance's recent campaign visit to Kansas for Marshall as evidence Republicans are worried about the race. Hamilton further distanced himself from national Democratic positioning, saying he opposes biological men competing in women's sports while criticizing Republican rhetoric he called fearmongering toward transgender people.

Illinois Democrats gathered at the state fair in Springfield for their annual Democrats' Day, with Gov. JB Pritzker, Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren delivering anti-Trump speeches while downplaying ideological rifts roiling the national party. Warren praised Senate candidate Juliana Stratton for standing up to AIPAC and corporate PACs, touching on divisions over Israel-Gaza policy and campaign finance that have proven more combustible elsewhere. But the celebratory tone was clouded by House Speaker Chris Welch's handling of a sexual harassment scandal involving former Rep. Harry Benton, and the recent indictment of Rep. Carol Ammons and her husband on fraud charges. Welch skipped the main event; three House Democrats have refused to join his working group on the harassment issue, calling its formation flawed.

A day later, Republicans held their own fairground rally, with Gov. candidate Darren Bailey and running mate Aaron Del Mar attacking Pritzker over cost of living, public safety and schools while avoiding mention of Trump. Senate candidate Don Tracy branded Stratton and Democratic Socialist allies as extreme, and House GOP leader Tony McCombie renewed criticism of Welch. Separately, the DNC narrowed its 2028 convention host shortlist to Boston, Denver and Philadelphia, excluding Chicago, which hosted in 2024 and remains in contention for 2032. Pritzker's campaign also launched a TV ad branding Bailey as extreme ahead of November.