Texas’s 21st Congressional District: 2026 House Race

Texas is confronting a surge in electricity demand tied to data centers, with ERCOT reporting roughly 474 gigawatts of proposed large loads under review by August, about 90 percent linked to data centers and more than five times the state's record peak demand. The buildout, rooted in post-2021 grid reliability reforms after Winter Storm Uri, now includes massive new 765-kilovolt transmission lines and other projects cutting across ranches and farmland.

Opposition is emerging across the political spectrum. Landowners like Erath County's Lance Cashion have testified about eminent domain fears, inadequate notice, and cumulative impacts from multiple overlapping transmission projects. Republican lawmakers such as Wes Virdell have condemned eminent domain use for these lines, while Democratic agriculture commissioner candidate Clayton Tucker has made opposing data centers and protecting water central to his campaign. Gov. Greg Abbott has directed regulators to scrutinize data center grid connections and proposed shifting infrastructure costs to developers and eliminating tax incentives, but has resisted calls for a special session, deferring action to the next regular legislative session despite the scale of the issue.

One year after Gov. Greg Abbott signed Texas's mid-decade "One Big Beautiful Map," redrawing five congressional districts at President Trump's urging, polling suggests Republicans may not be reaping the gains they expected. The redistricting combined Black-majority districts in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and paired two Austin Democrats, while shifting South Texas seats to favor the GOP, aiming for a net five-seat pickup for Republicans nationally.

Recent Texas Southern University polling shows Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leading in District 28 and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ahead in District 34, despite both districts being redrawn to favor Trump. In District 15, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz trails Tejano musician Bobby Pulido despite a district redrawn heavily in Trump's favor. District 35, created by merging two Austin Democratic incumbents' territory, remains a contested open seat where House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned for Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.

The shifting numbers, attributed partly to fallout from immigration enforcement, tariffs and inflation, complicate Republican hopes of using redistricting to offset historic midterm losses for the party controlling the White House.

Texas's 2026 elections feature unexpectedly competitive statewide races, a rarity in a state no Democrat has won statewide since 1994. The marquee contest pits state Rep. James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, with control of the chamber and the final two years of President Trump's term potentially at stake. Gov. Greg Abbott faces a tighter-than-expected challenge from state Rep. Gina Hinojosa despite a large fundraising edge. A recent University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Democrat Vikki Goodwin narrowly ahead of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Nathan Johnson slightly leading Mayes Middleton for attorney general, with all surveyed races within the margin of error. Republicans' new congressional redistricting plan will also be tested.

Texas Republicans are moving to revive Senate Bill 7, a sweeping elections measure that died over the weekend after Democratic lawmakers staged a walkout to deny the House a quorum before a midnight deadline. Gov. Greg Abbott is expected to call a special session to pass the bill and possibly other stalled conservative priorities, including a ban on transgender athletes in girls' and women's sports.

The bill would cut polling hours, empower partisan poll watchers, ban drive-through and 24-hour voting, and includes a contested provision making it easier for judges to void election results over unproven fraud claims. Democrats objected especially to new limits on early Sunday voting, a key day for Black churchgoers, though one GOP negotiator called that provision a drafting error. Abbott has threatened to veto legislative salaries in retaliation and invoked the 2013 Wendy Davis filibuster, which Republicans overturned in a special session. President Biden urged Democrats nationally to intensify voting rights efforts as Congress prepares to debate federal elections legislation.

Texas' open U.S. Senate race has narrowed to a close contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, with Libertarian Ted Brown also on the ballot. The seat is being vacated by John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton. Polls show the race within the margin of error, giving Talarico a slight edge as Democrats seek their first statewide Texas win since 1994.

Paxton, attorney general since 2015 and a longtime conservative legal combatant against federal policy, has backing from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Senate GOP leadership but did not respond to candidate questionnaires. Talarico, serving his fourth House term, has set state fundraising records and drawn endorsements from labor and civil rights groups. Brown, a longtime Libertarian activist, rounds out the field.

Early voting runs Oct. 19 through Oct. 30, with Election Day on Nov. 3. The Senate race shares the ballot with Texas' gubernatorial contest between Gov. Greg Abbott and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. With the Senate split 53-47 in Republicans' favor, a Democratic upset in Texas would ease their path toward a majority, making the race a closely watched national bellwether.

Republican Austin Rogers and Democrat Amanda Green, competing to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn in Florida's 2nd Congressional District, will hold their only Leon County forum Oct. 27 at a Tallahassee business luncheon. Rogers, a former aide to Sen. Rick Scott, has Trump's endorsement, broad business backing and a large fundraising lead. Green, a development-sector operations director, has endorsements from former Rep. Allen Boyd, Blue Dog PAC and the Alliance for Retired Americans, and is courting farmers and independents frustrated with trade policy and rising costs. The GOP has held the seat 14 of the last 16 years; forecasters including Decision Desk HQ and Cook Political Report favor Rogers heavily.

With early voting set to begin Oct. 19 ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Texas candidates are ramping up outreach efforts statewide. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico launched an Austin canvassing effort over the weekend, his first public campaign event since Sept. 30 when he disclosed he had the flu. He also made a surprise appearance at the Austin City Limits music festival the day before. Talarico did not address his absence publicly or take questions from reporters.

Republican nominee and Attorney General Ken Paxton used the gap to highlight his own continued travel across Texas, including stops at the TX Youth Summit and Moms for Liberty Summit, and his campaign launched a mocking "Tala-Freak-Out" tip line referencing Talarico's whereabouts.

Down-ballot races are also heating up: in Travis County's Texas House District 47, Democrat Pooja Sethi and Republican Jennifer Mushtaler are both intensifying door-to-door canvassing, citing voter concerns over affordability, education, and gas prices as early voting approaches.

Texas remains under a federal court order stemming from a 2011 ruling that found widespread abuse and instability in its foster care system, and the state has been held in contempt multiple times for failing to comply. A recent hearing addressed ongoing disputes over federal oversight, which state officials have characterized as costly and excessive "micromanagement." Separately, criticism has grown over the Texas Legislature's refusal to implement online voter registration, a option many other states already offer, as registration backlogs continue to accumulate ahead of upcoming elections. Both issues highlight friction between state governance priorities and federal or public expectations for accountability and modernization.

A letters roundup in the Austin American-Statesman reflects public frustration following a shooting by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent involving an unarmed person in Austin. Letter writers criticized Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton for what they described as silence on the incident, framing it as part of a broader pattern of prioritizing political power over public safety ahead of upcoming midterm elections.

Other letters in the same collection touched on separate but related state issues: the University of Texas removing ethnic and gender studies majors amid concerns over academic independence, a proposed data center facing an attorney general probe, and criticism of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick's use of AI-generated campaign ads. Writers also referenced Paxton's impeachment, settled securities law case, and whistleblower settlement history. The recurring theme across submissions was distrust of Republican leadership in Texas and a call for voters to hold officials accountable in the midterms.

With early voting underway in Texas through Oct. 30 ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Axios readers across Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio shared their emotions heading into the vote. More than 200 responded, mostly Democrats, who described feeling "cautiously hopeful" or "cautiously excited" about competitive statewide races, with some expressing optimism that Texas could turn more Democratic amid visible grassroots organizing. A smaller group of Republican respondents voiced frustration with both parties and skepticism of polling, while some called for political change. Many respondents, regardless of party, said they were simply exhausted by the volume of campaign ads, texts and signage this cycle.