Texas Lieutenant Governor Election: Who Will Win in 2026

Texas heads into its Nov. 3, 2026 election with several races drawing unusually close national attention. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is running competitively against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, a race polling shows within margin of error — the closest Texas Senate contest since Democrats last held the seat in 1993. Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, holds a smaller-than-usual lead over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who would be the state's first Democratic governor in over 30 years and first Latina governor if elected. Down-ballot races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and other statewide posts are also tighter than in recent cycles.

The election marks the first test of Texas's new congressional map, redrawn last year at President Trump's urging to net Republicans five additional U.S. House seats after Supreme Court approval. Ten open House seats add further uncertainty. Affordability, property taxes, and growing bipartisan backlash against data centers are emerging as major voter concerns statewide.

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick posted an AI-generated campaign ad featuring imagery and traditions from the University of Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech, prompting questions over whether he had permission to use their trademarked names and symbols. The 50-second ad, shared to X on September 5, depicts Democratic candidates Vikki Goodwin, Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico in mocking scenarios set at simulated football games featuring each school's mascots and traditions. UT, Texas A&M and Texas Tech all restrict use of their trademarks in political advertising, and state law bars universities from using resources to support candidates. Officials from the three schools have not confirmed whether they authorized the ad's use of their branding, though a state lawmaker has asked the presidents to clarify. Patrick's campaign has not said whether it sought permission or disclosed the ad as AI-generated.

The episode highlights gaps in Texas's deepfake election law, which only applies within 30 days of an election and requires proving intent to deceive — a threshold experts say is difficult to meet and easily circumvented by early ad releases.

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick posted an apparent AI-generated campaign ad featuring imagery and traditions from the University of Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech to mock his Democratic opponents ahead of November's election. The 50-second ad, shared to X on Sept. 5, depicts Democratic lieutenant governor candidate Vikki Goodwin proposing new taxes at a simulated UT game, portrays Gina Hinojosa questioning Texas Tech fans' gun rights gestures, and shows U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico criticizing Texas A&M's "12th Man" tradition as "gendered." The ad had drawn over 907,000 views as of Friday.

All three universities restrict outside use of their trademarks, particularly in political contexts, and none confirmed to reporters whether Patrick had permission or whether the ad violated state rules barring public universities from supporting candidates. State Rep. Terry Canales has asked the schools to seek the ad's removal if unauthorized; only Texas A&M has responded so far. Patrick's campaign has not said whether it sought approval. Texas's existing deepfake law, which requires proving intent to deceive, only applies within 30 days of an election, leaving this ad unregulated. Goodwin has accused Patrick of using AI to misrepresent her.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll of 1,200 registered Texas voters, conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 5, shows several statewide races within the margin of error ahead of Election Day. Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton 50%-47% in the U.S. Senate race. In the governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa led Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 49%-48%. Democrat Vikki Goodwin led Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 49%-46%, and Democrats also held narrow leads in the attorney general and railroad commissioner races, while Republican Don Huffines narrowly led in the comptroller contest.

Inflation and the economy remained voters' top concerns, cited by 21% as Texas's biggest problem, ahead of political corruption/leadership (15%) and the economy generally (10%). President Trump's favorability in Texas stood at 42% favorable versus 50% unfavorable. Abbott's job approval was 44% approve/45% disapprove; Paxton stood at 35%/46%; Patrick at 33%/39%. All results carry margins of error of roughly 2.8-3.3 percentage points.

Texas's 2026 elections feature unexpectedly competitive statewide races, a rarity in a state no Democrat has won statewide since 1994. The marquee contest pits state Rep. James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, with control of the chamber and the final two years of President Trump's term potentially at stake. Gov. Greg Abbott faces a tighter-than-expected challenge from state Rep. Gina Hinojosa despite a large fundraising edge. A recent University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Democrat Vikki Goodwin narrowly ahead of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Nathan Johnson slightly leading Mayes Middleton for attorney general, with all surveyed races within the margin of error. Republicans' new congressional redistricting plan will also be tested.

Texas Democrats are testing whether anti-Trump sentiment can break the GOP's decades-long statewide winning streak, with no Democrat having won statewide office since 1994. The marquee race pits Democratic state Rep. James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for a U.S. Senate seat that could affect the chamber's balance. Gov. Greg Abbott faces an unexpectedly close challenge from state Rep. Gina Hinojosa despite a large fundraising edge. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll found several other statewide races within the margin of error, including lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and a Railroad Commission seat. The elections will also test a Republican plan to redraw five Democratic U.S. House districts.

A letters roundup in the Austin American-Statesman reflects public frustration following a shooting by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent involving an unarmed person in Austin. Letter writers criticized Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton for what they described as silence on the incident, framing it as part of a broader pattern of prioritizing political power over public safety ahead of upcoming midterm elections.

Other letters in the same collection touched on separate but related state issues: the University of Texas removing ethnic and gender studies majors amid concerns over academic independence, a proposed data center facing an attorney general probe, and criticism of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick's use of AI-generated campaign ads. Writers also referenced Paxton's impeachment, settled securities law case, and whistleblower settlement history. The recurring theme across submissions was distrust of Republican leadership in Texas and a call for voters to hold officials accountable in the midterms.

Texas Republicans are moving to revive Senate Bill 7, a sweeping elections measure that died over the weekend after Democratic lawmakers staged a walkout to deny the House a quorum before a midnight deadline. Gov. Greg Abbott is expected to call a special session to pass the bill and possibly other stalled conservative priorities, including a ban on transgender athletes in girls' and women's sports.

The bill would cut polling hours, empower partisan poll watchers, ban drive-through and 24-hour voting, and includes a contested provision making it easier for judges to void election results over unproven fraud claims. Democrats objected especially to new limits on early Sunday voting, a key day for Black churchgoers, though one GOP negotiator called that provision a drafting error. Abbott has threatened to veto legislative salaries in retaliation and invoked the 2013 Wendy Davis filibuster, which Republicans overturned in a special session. President Biden urged Democrats nationally to intensify voting rights efforts as Congress prepares to debate federal elections legislation.

Bo French, the Republican nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner, sparked bipartisan backlash after posting on social media about Asian American students cheering at a University of Texas football game following a comeback win over Ohio State, calling them "foreigners" and saying they showed how "Americans have been displaced by foreigners." Two students identified in the photo, Dhairya Gupta and Rahul Kodali, said they are U.S. citizens and called the post racist; Gupta said the incident showed racism "isn't looked down upon as much as it used to be." UT Austin enrollment data show international students make up less than 10% of the student body, with Asian students, mostly U.S. citizens or permanent residents, accounting for about 22.4% of enrollment. French has refused to delete the posts, denied regret when asked directly, and said "Truth sounds like hate to those who hate the truth," using the controversy for fundraising.

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn condemned the posts as racist, warning that tolerating such intolerance is "how great political parties self-destruct," and Rep. Dan Crenshaw also criticized French. Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows and GOP representatives including Jared Patterson, Jeff Leach, Matt Shaheen, and Lacey Hull called on French to delete the posts, while former Speaker Dade Phelan called him "unfit for office." Gov. Greg Abbott said the message wasn't his but stopped short of directly condemning French, instead touting support for freezing H-1B visas at universities; he has since endorsed French, as has Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Attorney General Ken Paxton, facing a Senate primary challenge from Democrat James Talarico, deflected criticism onto Talarico rather than address French's remarks. French previously faced calls to resign as county chair over a poll on Jews versus Muslims.