Texas 38th District House Race 2026: Winner Outlook

One year after Gov. Greg Abbott signed Texas's mid-decade "One Big Beautiful Map," redrawing five congressional districts at President Trump's urging, polling suggests Republicans may not be reaping the gains they expected. The redistricting combined Black-majority districts in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and paired two Austin Democrats, while shifting South Texas seats to favor the GOP, aiming for a net five-seat pickup for Republicans nationally.

Recent Texas Southern University polling shows Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leading in District 28 and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ahead in District 34, despite both districts being redrawn to favor Trump. In District 15, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz trails Tejano musician Bobby Pulido despite a district redrawn heavily in Trump's favor. District 35, created by merging two Austin Democratic incumbents' territory, remains a contested open seat where House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned for Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.

The shifting numbers, attributed partly to fallout from immigration enforcement, tariffs and inflation, complicate Republican hopes of using redistricting to offset historic midterm losses for the party controlling the White House.

Incumbent Republican Dawn Buckingham faces Democrat Benjamin Flores and Libertarian Neill Snider in the 2026 race for Texas Land Commissioner, the elected official who oversees the General Land Office (GLO). The agency manages 13 million acres of state land, the Permanent School Fund that helps fund K-12 schools, disaster relief distribution, veterans' land and home loan programs, and the Alamo.

Buckingham, unopposed in the GOP primary, has emphasized oil and gas development, border enforcement efforts including the Jocelyn Initiative, and defense of the Alamo against "woke" reinterpretations; she has drawn endorsements from President Trump and numerous state legislators. Flores, who switched from the governor's race, opposes using GLO resources for immigration enforcement, opposes school vouchers, and has proposed land swaps for affordable housing and faster disaster-response contracting. Snider favors reducing taxes by maximizing or selling state land profits and increasing GLO transparency. The office remains under scrutiny following past discrimination findings tied to Hurricane Harvey relief, later reversed by federal reviewers, and a controversy over the Alamo Trust's Indigenous Peoples' Day social media post.

Texas Republicans are moving to revive Senate Bill 7, a sweeping elections measure that died over the weekend after Democratic lawmakers staged a walkout to deny the House a quorum before a midnight deadline. Gov. Greg Abbott is expected to call a special session to pass the bill and possibly other stalled conservative priorities, including a ban on transgender athletes in girls' and women's sports.

The bill would cut polling hours, empower partisan poll watchers, ban drive-through and 24-hour voting, and includes a contested provision making it easier for judges to void election results over unproven fraud claims. Democrats objected especially to new limits on early Sunday voting, a key day for Black churchgoers, though one GOP negotiator called that provision a drafting error. Abbott has threatened to veto legislative salaries in retaliation and invoked the 2013 Wendy Davis filibuster, which Republicans overturned in a special session. President Biden urged Democrats nationally to intensify voting rights efforts as Congress prepares to debate federal elections legislation.

Early voting began Monday in Texas ahead of the Nov. 3 election and runs through Oct. 30, with Houston voters citing varied priorities from corruption to human rights as reasons for their choices. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Democratic voters currently hold an enthusiasm edge, with 72% saying they are certain to vote compared with 65% of Republicans. The same poll found a growing share of Americans struggling to afford basics like gas, health care, housing and groceries since February; the share calling gas unaffordable jumped from 28% to 71%, as national average gas prices have topped $4 a gallon for a record 158 days this year.
Texas early voting kicks off as polling shows a Democratic enthusiasm edge and rising affordability worries over gas and essentials.

Three seats on Texas's new 15th Court of Appeals are up for election in November, marking the first time voters will weigh in since Gov. Greg Abbott appointed the court's inaugural members in 2024. Created by the Legislature in 2023, the court handles civil cases involving the state, challenges to state laws' constitutionality, and business-court appeals before they reach the Texas Supreme Court. Winners will serve six-year terms.

Primaries were uncontested, leaving one Republican incumbent facing one Democrat in each race: Chief Justice Scott Brister vs. Jerry Zimmerer, Place 2's Scott Field vs. Tom Baker, and Place 3's April Farris vs. Marc Meyer. All three incumbents hold substantial fundraising leads, backed heavily by Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC and other business and legal interests. Since taking the bench, the Republican-majority court has ruled on marijuana policy, abortion, and campaign finance, at times drawing criticism from Attorney General Ken Paxton. The outcomes will shape the ideological direction of a court with broad authority over state-related litigation.

Texas heads into a Nov. 3 election featuring high-profile statewide races, including Gov. Greg Abbott's contest against Democrat Gina Hinojosa and a U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Additional battles for congressional and state legislature seats are also on the ballot.

Voters interviewed at the State Fair of Texas in Dallas offered mixed predictions about the state's political trajectory. Many expressed confidence Texas will remain reliably Republican, while others, pointing to shifts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, suggested the state could be inching toward competitive territory. Several voters said economic concerns, particularly persistent inflation and reduced disposable income, are shaping their views more than party allegiance. Some cited dissatisfaction with the current presidential administration as a driving factor in their outlook.

The races are being watched closely as indicators of whether traditionally red Texas is becoming more competitive, with economic sentiment likely to play a significant role in turnout and outcomes across the state's marquee contests.

Early voting opens in Harris County, Texas, running through Oct. 30, with several closely watched local races on the ballot. Voters will choose a new county judge for the first time since 2018, with Democrat Letitia Plummer facing Republican Orlando Sanchez to succeed the retiring Lina Hidalgo; a recent University of Houston poll showed Plummer with a narrow lead. Commissioner races are also on the ballot in Precincts 2 and 4, pitting Democratic incumbents against Republican challengers. Redrawn congressional districts add further intrigue, with new matchups in Districts 9 and 18. Houston voters will additionally decide Proposition A on marijuana enforcement and no-knock warrants, while League City weighs license plate camera use and Cy-Fair ISD considers a bond package.

The Houston Chronicle's editorial "Thumbs" column took aim at several local and state political stories this week. It criticized Chris Brown, Mayor John Whitmire's senior advisor for financial integrity, for swiping into work only a handful of times over nearly two years while earning a six-figure salary; Brown defended himself by calling his work "project- and output-based." The column praised Whitmire for personally funding the installation of Pride banners on Westheimer Boulevard, a response to last year's removal of a rainbow crosswalk in Montrose under pressure from Gov. Greg Abbott.

The piece also noted Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican Senate nominee, reportedly told a private gathering that the Trump-led GOP convention hurt Republican candidates, a claim his campaign denies; Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in the primary, called it a "self-inflicted wound." Other items touched on a Houston Astros playoff berth, writer Bryan Washington's MacArthur "genius grant," and Sen. Ted Cruz's bipartisan Protect College Sports Act.

Wendy Alvarez, mother of Arlene Alvarez, a 9-year-old fatally shot in Houston in 2022, is demanding Gov. Greg Abbott's reelection campaign remove an ad featuring her daughter's photo. The ad shows Arlene's aunt, April Aguirre, discussing the killing while criticizing Democratic opponent Gina Hinojosa's positions on bail and policing. Alvarez says she never consented to her daughter's image being used politically, though Aguirre brought the photo and volunteered for the ad without payment, according to Abbott's campaign. The man convicted in Arlene's death was sentenced to 20 years for manslaughter in September 2025. Alvarez says the backlash has led her to pause efforts for "Arlene's Law."

With early voting underway in Texas through Oct. 30 ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Axios readers across Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio shared their emotions heading into the vote. More than 200 responded, mostly Democrats, who described feeling "cautiously hopeful" or "cautiously excited" about competitive statewide races, with some expressing optimism that Texas could turn more Democratic amid visible grassroots organizing. A smaller group of Republican respondents voiced frustration with both parties and skepticism of polling, while some called for political change. Many respondents, regardless of party, said they were simply exhausted by the volume of campaign ads, texts and signage this cycle.