Texas 31st Congressional District: 2026 House Race
Texas’s 31st Congressional District, covering Williamson County and part of the northern Austin suburbs, holds its general election on November 3, 2026. The seat is currently held by Republican John Carter, who has represented the district for two decades, though redistricting and suburban growth have made the area increasingly competitive in recent cycles. Voters will choose between major-party nominees after primaries determine who advances.
Why Markets Are Watching
Suburban districts like TX-31 have become bellwethers for shifting voter coalitions, as once-reliable Republican strongholds face demographic change and growing Democratic competitiveness. The outcome will factor into the broader fight for US House control in 2026. A close result here could signal whether Texas suburbs continue trending away from the GOP.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a multi-candidate election to a binary question: which party’s nominee wins the district. That framing isolates partisan control as the key variable, setting aside margin or turnout specifics. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength against demographic shifts and national political headwinds heading into the midterms.
Related terms
Total Volume
$30k
Kalshi $15.9k · Polymarket $14.1k
Leading Market
John Carter
Kalshi 94% · Polymarket 94%
John Carter Volume
$8.9k
Kalshi $2.6k · Polymarket $6.3k
John Carter 24h Change
-1.10%
Kalshi -1.10% · Polymarket +1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John CarterRepublican Party | 94.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade John Carter on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 94.0¢ | 5% | , trade John Carter on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Justin MartyrDemocratic Party | 7.7¢ | 7.0% | , trade Justin Martyr on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 7.0¢ | 5% | , trade Justin Martyr on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| John CarterRepublican Party | $8,863.88 | ||
| Justin MartyrDemocratic Party | $21,123.75 |