Texas’s 37th Congressional District House Race
Texas’s 37th Congressional District, anchored in central Austin, holds its House election in 2026. The seat is one of the most reliably Democratic in Texas, drawing a crowded field of candidates as the incumbent party looks to retain control. Redistricting and local primary dynamics will shape who ultimately represents the district in Washington.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of individual House seats collectively determines which party holds the chamber majority, shaping legislative agendas and committee power for the next two years. Even in a district considered safe for one party, primary outcomes and candidate quality can affect governance and representation for Austin-area constituents. The race also offers an early signal of voter sentiment heading into the broader midterm cycle.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a multi-candidate contest into a binary and multi-outcome question: which party, and ultimately which individual, wins the seat. Because the district leans heavily toward one party, much of the real contest unfolds in the primary, with the general election framed as a formality. Traders are effectively weighing candidate viability and name recognition within that dominant party rather than a genuine partisan toss-up.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Texas -
Redistricting -
Primary election -
Electoral district -
Austin, Texas -
Greg Casar
Total Volume
$25k
Kalshi $2.8k · Polymarket $22.2k
Leading Market
Greg Casar
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 99%
Greg Casar Volume
$3.3k
Kalshi $938.62 · Polymarket $2.4k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg CasarDemocratic Party | 99.5¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Lauren BacallRepublican Party | 2.6¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Lauren PeñaRepublican Party | — | — | — | 2.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
In the News
Austin officials demand independent probe after ICE agent shoots Venezuelan man
PN Team • 1 month ago
Austin city leaders and other elected officials are calling for an independent investigation after an ICE agent shot a Venezuelan man Sunday afternoon during a vehicle pursuit while he was making a DoorDash delivery. The man, identified by his attorney Kate Lincoln-Goldfinch as 28-year-old Wilber Rafael Garces Perez, says ICE officers sideswiped his car twice without warning before he was shot in the back of the neck. He was released from a hospital into ICE custody with the bullet still lodged near his spine, held at the Pearsall detention center without pain medication, and briefly returned to the hospital Monday night after complaints of untreated pain. DHS says he had a final order of removal after entering under a Biden-era asylum program later ended by Trump; his attorneys say the order stemmed from a missed hearing notice sent to an old address. Federal sources say ICE had been conducting targeted enforcement using license plate checks when they identified his vehicle.
Austin officials say the city's own EMS was requested by Austin Police, not ICE, though bystander video shows an ICE agent also asking whether an ambulance was en route; federal sources say the agent has been placed on administrative leave, standard practice in such incidents. Homeland Security Investigations and the FBI are leading the probe, with Austin Police and Texas Rangers investigating separately. Mayor Kirk Watson, Police Chief Lisa Davis, DA Jose Garza, and Congressman Greg Casar are demanding transparency and local involvement, noting this is one of at least 28 such shootings by federal immigration agents since 2024.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Greg Casar Casar is shown demanding transparency and accountability, a favorable civic role.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as having ended the Biden-era asylum program relevant to the man's removal order, indirectly tying him to the controversy.
- Austin, Texas Austin is the setting and its officials are shown responding proactively, a mildly favorable civic context.
- Law enforcement Law enforcement broadly is tied to the incident and subsequent investigations, a mixed but mostly procedural mention.
- Texas Texas is mentioned as the state where the incident and detention occurred, largely factual context.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as the body Casar belongs to, with no direct evaluative content.
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Elections
Ohio Democrats Face Narrow but Real Path in Statewide Races
PN Team • 2 days ago
Ohio Democrats head into this year's elections with what analysts call their best shot in years to break the GOP's grip on statewide offices, though Republicans retain a clear structural advantage. Separately, a new state law requires mailed absentee ballots to reach county election offices by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day with no grace period, prompting Secretary of State Frank LaRose to urge voters to use drop boxes or deliver ballots in person. The Ohio Auditor's office also took its web systems offline after a cyberattack possibly involving foreign actors, though officials say no financial data appears compromised. LaRose separately sought a federal probe into a voter-registration group's activity in Cuyahoga County.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Described as having a rare competitive opportunity in statewide races despite structural disadvantages.
- Republican Party (United States) Noted as retaining a clear structural advantage in Ohio politics.
- Cuyahoga County, Ohio Subject of a federal probe request tied to voter-registration group activity.
- Ohio Central setting for competitive elections, a new ballot deadline law, and a cyberattack on state systems.
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Local & State
China Grove council ratifies ICE partnership despite criticism
PN Team • 2 months ago
The China Grove, Texas City Council voted 3-0, with one abstention, to ratify a memorandum of agreement with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement under Section 287(g) of the Immigration and Nationality Act. The provision lets local police assist ICE with immigration enforcement; China Grove operates under the Task Force Model, allowing officers to check immigration status during routine stops like traffic enforcement. City officials say the arrangement has generated roughly $192,000 in federal reimbursement.
The vote followed pressure from Democratic officials, including U.S. Reps. Joaquin Castro and Greg Casar and Bexar County Judge Peter Sakai, who urged withdrawal over racial-profiling and civil-rights concerns. ACLU of Texas and Immigrant Legal Resource Center representatives echoed those objections at the meeting, while Police Chief Ralph Sramek defended the program, saying no racial-profiling complaints have been filed since 2014.
Scrutiny intensified after China Grove police stopped mariachi musician Hebert Kaleth Ibarra Castro in June, leading to his 16-day ICE detention. China Grove's agreement is among 2,462 active 287(g) partnerships nationwide.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Joaquin Castro Joaquin Castro is cited as urging withdrawal from the agreement over racial-profiling concerns, portraying him as an advocate for civil rights.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic officials are portrayed as pushing back against the ICE partnership on civil-rights grounds, a neutral-to-mildly-favorable advocacy stance.
- Texas Texas is the setting for a controversial immigration enforcement story, giving it a mildly negative tangential association.
- Bexar County, Texas Bexar County is referenced only via its judge's involvement, a neutral factual mention.
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Local & State
Texas Democrats Push Bexar County Cities to Drop ICE Agreements
PN Team • 2 months ago
Reps. Joaquin Castro and Greg Casar held a San Antonio press conference urging six Bexar County municipalities — Hollywood Park, China Grove, St. Hedwig, Balcones Heights, Sandy Oaks, and Von Ormy — to end their 287(g) agreements with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The agreements, entered under the Task Force model, let trained local police question people about citizenship status during patrols, access ICE databases, and arrest suspected undocumented immigrants.
Castro accused ICE of racial profiling and called the agency "rogue" and "abusive" under the Trump administration, citing conditions at the South Texas Family Residential Center in Dilley, which he has visited repeatedly and wants closed. He also suggested financial incentives, not just policy, are driving cities to sign on. Casar called on mayors to stop enrolling police in federal immigration enforcement. Texas law requires counties operating jails to participate in 287(g), a provision dating to 1996 legislation signed by President Bill Clinton, complicating efforts to unwind local participation.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's administration is described as running ICE in a manner called 'rogue' and 'abusive' by Castro, casting a negative light.
- Joaquin Castro Castro is portrayed as an active advocate against ICE practices, casting him in a favorable light as a reform-minded representative.
- Texas Texas is implicated as having a law requiring 287(g) participation, complicating local efforts, a mildly negative framing.
- Bill Clinton Bill Clinton is noted as having signed the 1996 legislation now complicating Democratic efforts, a mild negative association given the current context.
- Texas Democratic Party Texas Democratic Party members are shown actively pushing a policy stance, portraying tangential engagement without strong positive or negative framing.
- Bexar County, Texas Bexar County is central to the story as the region where officials are pushing back against ICE agreements, a neutral-to-mild factual mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic Party is implicated through its members' advocacy without direct characterization of the party itself.
- United States The United States is referenced through federal immigration policy discussions, a neutral factual mention.
- San Antonio San Antonio is the location of the press conference, a neutral factual mention.
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Elections
Texas redistricting map faces unexpected pushback a year after signing
PN Team • 2 months ago
One year after Gov. Greg Abbott signed Texas's mid-decade "One Big Beautiful Map," redrawing five congressional districts at President Trump's urging, polling suggests Republicans may not be reaping the gains they expected. The redistricting combined Black-majority districts in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and paired two Austin Democrats, while shifting South Texas seats to favor the GOP, aiming for a net five-seat pickup for Republicans nationally.
Recent Texas Southern University polling shows Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leading in District 28 and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ahead in District 34, despite both districts being redrawn to favor Trump. In District 15, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz trails Tejano musician Bobby Pulido despite a district redrawn heavily in Trump's favor. District 35, created by merging two Austin Democratic incumbents' territory, remains a contested open seat where House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned for Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.
The shifting numbers, attributed partly to fallout from immigration enforcement, tariffs and inflation, complicate Republican hopes of using redistricting to offset historic midterm losses for the party controlling the White House.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The redistricting effort is portrayed as backfiring, undermining Republican expectations of gains.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are shown leading in polls in districts drawn to favor Republicans, suggesting improved standing.
- Donald Trump Redistricting done at his urging appears to be underperforming, reflecting negatively on his political influence.
- Greg Abbott He signed the map now facing unexpected pushback, tying him to a plan that may be failing.
- United States Mentioned tangentially regarding national midterm losses for the party controlling the White House.
- United States Congress Referenced tangentially in relation to congressional districts and seats without direct reputational framing.
- Austin, Texas Mentioned factually as the location of paired Democratic incumbents' districts.
- Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex Mentioned factually as location of combined Black-majority districts.
- Houston Mentioned factually as location of combined Black-majority districts.
- Texas Central setting of the redistricting story, mentioned factually without clear reputational tilt.
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Elections
Texas 15th Court of Appeals seats on November ballot
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Three seats on Texas's new 15th Court of Appeals are up for election in November, marking the first time voters will weigh in since Gov. Greg Abbott appointed the court's inaugural members in 2024. Created by the Legislature in 2023, the court handles civil cases involving the state, challenges to state laws' constitutionality, and business-court appeals before they reach the Texas Supreme Court. Winners will serve six-year terms.
Primaries were uncontested, leaving one Republican incumbent facing one Democrat in each race: Chief Justice Scott Brister vs. Jerry Zimmerer, Place 2's Scott Field vs. Tom Baker, and Place 3's April Farris vs. Marc Meyer. All three incumbents hold substantial fundraising leads, backed heavily by Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC and other business and legal interests. Since taking the bench, the Republican-majority court has ruled on marijuana policy, abortion, and campaign finance, at times drawing criticism from Attorney General Ken Paxton. The outcomes will shape the ideological direction of a court with broad authority over state-related litigation.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ken Paxton Paxton is noted as criticizing the court's rulings, a mildly negative/contentious mention.
- Greg Abbott Abbott is mentioned neutrally as having appointed the court's inaugural members.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican incumbents are noted as holding fundraising leads, a neutral factual detail.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are mentioned as challengers in each race without evaluative framing.
- Texas Texas is the factual setting for the court and election described.
- Texas Legislature The Legislature is referenced factually as the creator of the new court.
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Elections
Texas 15th Court of Appeals seats on November ballot for first time
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Texas voters will decide in November whether to keep the three Republican justices currently sitting on the state's 15th Court of Appeals, a court created by the Legislature in 2023 to hear civil appeals involving the state, challenges to state laws' constitutionality, and business court cases. Gov. Greg Abbott appointed all three justices in 2024, and this is their first time facing voters; a win secures a six-year term. All primaries were uncontested, with one Republican and one Democrat per race advancing to the general election.
The Republican incumbents — a chief justice and two associate justices — are being challenged by three Democrats with appellate and judicial backgrounds. In their first year and a half on the bench, the current justices have ruled on marijuana policy, abortion policy, and campaign finance disputes, at times drawing criticism from Attorney General Ken Paxton. Because the court reviews nearly all major civil cases involving the state before they reach the Texas Supreme Court, its composition carries significant weight for pending and future litigation over state policy.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ken Paxton Described as criticizing the justices' rulings, casting him in an adversarial light.
- Greg Abbott Noted as the governor who appointed the justices, a neutral factual mention of his authority.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as the party fielding one challenger per race.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as the party of the incumbent justices.
- Texas Central setting of the article as the state holding the judicial election.
- Texas Legislature Mentioned factually as the body that created the court in 2023.
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Elections
Texas Democratic Party Chair Touts Rebuild, Slams Abbott and Paxton on Data Centers
PN Team • 2 months ago
Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder says the party has erased its debt and built a $30 million coordinated campaign since he took over in March 2025, up from a $2 million effort under his predecessor. He credits a restructuring that moved staff out of Austin and into Dallas, Houston, Eagle Pass, and Amarillo, along with recruiting more than 1,000 precinct chairs, as key to preparing for competitive races ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2030 redistricting cycle.
Scudder also addressed the contested Senate primary won by State Representative James Talarico over U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, arguing Talarico now has a party infrastructure Beto O'Rourke lacked in his narrow 2018 loss. On data centers, he accused Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton of feigning opposition while Abbott's administration has committed roughly $1 billion in taxpayer incentives to the industry, calling their posture insincere and warning it could hurt Republican turnout in rural Texas, where the issue has become politically sensitive.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Texas Democratic Party Party is portrayed favorably as having erased debt, built a large campaign fund, and expanded infrastructure under new leadership.
- Greg Abbott Abbott is accused of feigning opposition to data centers while directing large taxpayer incentives to the industry.
- Ken Paxton Paxton is accused alongside Abbott of insincere opposition to data centers despite taxpayer-funded incentives.
- James Talarico Talarico is portrayed positively as the primary winner now backed by stronger party infrastructure.
- Republican Party (United States) Article suggests Republican posturing on data centers could hurt GOP turnout in rural Texas.
- Dallas Dallas is mentioned as a location for new party staff, a neutral factual detail.
- Houston Houston is mentioned as a location for new party staff, a neutral factual detail.
- Jasmine Crockett Crockett is mentioned as having lost the contested primary, a mildly unfavorable outcome.
- Austin, Texas Austin is mentioned only as the location staff moved away from, slightly negative framing.
- Beto O'Rourke O'Rourke is mentioned neutrally as having lacked party infrastructure in his narrow 2018 loss.
- Texas Texas is the overall setting for the political developments described, factual mention.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only via Crockett's role as a U.S. Representative, without further characterization.
- United States Senate Referenced only via the Senate primary context, factual mention.
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Elections
Texas GOP vows to revive voting restrictions after Democrats’ walkout
PN Team • 1 month ago
Texas Republicans are moving to revive Senate Bill 7, a sweeping elections measure that died over the weekend after Democratic lawmakers staged a walkout to deny the House a quorum before a midnight deadline. Gov. Greg Abbott is expected to call a special session to pass the bill and possibly other stalled conservative priorities, including a ban on transgender athletes in girls' and women's sports.
The bill would cut polling hours, empower partisan poll watchers, ban drive-through and 24-hour voting, and includes a contested provision making it easier for judges to void election results over unproven fraud claims. Democrats objected especially to new limits on early Sunday voting, a key day for Black churchgoers, though one GOP negotiator called that provision a drafting error. Abbott has threatened to veto legislative salaries in retaliation and invoked the 2013 Wendy Davis filibuster, which Republicans overturned in a special session. President Biden urged Democrats nationally to intensify voting rights efforts as Congress prepares to debate federal elections legislation.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Greg Abbott Abbott is shown pushing controversial legislation and threatening retaliatory vetoes against lawmakers.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are depicted as pushing restrictive voting measures and retaliatory tactics, casting them negatively.
- Texas Democratic Party Texas Democrats are credited with successfully staging the walkout to deny quorum and block the bill.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic lawmakers are portrayed favorably for their walkout to block restrictive voting legislation.
- Texas Texas is the setting for the political conflict, mentioned factually without direct reputational framing.
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Elections
Texas 2026 statewide races tighten ahead of election
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Texas's 2026 elections feature unexpectedly competitive statewide races, a rarity in a state no Democrat has won statewide since 1994. The marquee contest pits state Rep. James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, with control of the chamber and the final two years of President Trump's term potentially at stake. Gov. Greg Abbott faces a tighter-than-expected challenge from state Rep. Gina Hinojosa despite a large fundraising edge. A recent University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Democrat Vikki Goodwin narrowly ahead of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Nathan Johnson slightly leading Mayes Middleton for attorney general, with all surveyed races within the margin of error. Republicans' new congressional redistricting plan will also be tested.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Gina Hinojosa Portrayed as mounting a stronger-than-expected challenge against Abbott, a favorable sign for her campaign.
- James Talarico Positioned as a competitive Democratic contender in a marquee Senate race, favorable for his profile.
- Vikki Goodwin Poll shows her narrowly ahead of Patrick, a favorable signal for her campaign.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as unexpectedly competitive in traditionally hostile territory, a modest positive signal.
- Dan Patrick (politician) Poll shows him narrowly trailing his Democratic challenger, a negative signal for his standing.
- Greg Abbott Described as facing a tighter-than-expected race despite fundraising advantage, a negative signal.
- Mayes Middleton Poll shows him narrowly trailing in the attorney general race, a negative signal.
- Ken Paxton Facing an unexpectedly competitive Senate race, a mildly negative reputational signal.
- Donald Trump Mentioned as having his final two years of term at stake, a tangential but slightly negative framing given competitive races for his party.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans face tighter-than-expected races and redistricting scrutiny, a mild negative framing.
- Texas Texas is the setting for the competitive elections described, a neutral contextual mention.
- United States Senate Referenced as the office being contested, a neutral factual mention.
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