How Many Florida House Seats Will Democrats Win in 2026

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) released a new campaign ad, filmed in D.C. and running in South Florida, accusing President Trump of going "too far" with immigration enforcement, warning that Hispanic voters who helped elect him in 2024 now "feel betrayed." Citing ICE data showing half of detainees had no criminal convictions or pending charges, she urged Trump to "be careful" about his advisers' guidance and compared his potential legacy to Lincoln's on slavery and Reagan's on communism. Salazar said she does not seek amnesty but a "dignified life" for immigrants, tying her message to her bipartisan Dignity Act (also called the DIGNIDAD Act), which would offer legal status to long-term undocumented immigrants without criminal records, updated with Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) in July. The ad comes just seven weeks before her reelection contest in a Miami-Dade district Democrats hope to flip.

The rare intra-party rebuke comes amid GOP anxiety that aggressive enforcement, including a troubled Minneapolis surge tied to two deaths, could erode Republican gains with Hispanic voters ahead of the midterms. Salazar's district, roughly 74% Hispanic, swung sharply toward Trump in 2024, helping him flip Miami-Dade County red for the first time since the 1980s, after leaning far narrower in 2020, but polling now shows Latino support swinging back toward Democrats nationally. She faces Democrat Elliot Rodriguez, a fellow Cuban-American and former TV anchor, who dismissed her ad as political opportunism; the race has reportedly tightened. Trump has shown no sign of softening his enforcement approach despite the warning.

Key West's tourism-dependent economy is losing workers after the Trump administration ended Temporary Protected Status for roughly 330,000 Haitians, a change the Supreme Court allowed to take effect on July 27. Florida has the nation's largest Haitian population, but Key West is especially exposed: a small, isolated island connected to the mainland by a single highway, where immigrants can't easily avoid Border Patrol. Local officials and business owners estimate thousands of Haitians live in and around the city of 25,000, filling hotel, restaurant, and rideshare jobs. Since TPS ended, immigration detentions in the Lower Keys have risen sharply, including arrests of workers with valid permits. Restaurant and hotel owners, including some Trump supporters, say staff shortages are forcing reduced hours and owners to cover shifts themselves, warning of a looming labor crunch as fall tourism season approaches. Immigrant advocates report growing fear among residents, with many avoiding public spaces and transportation. The Department of Homeland Security defended ending TPS, calling it an overused "de facto amnesty" program.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) won her party's primary in Florida's newly drawn 20th Congressional District, a plurality-Black seat centered on Broward County, after her old 25th District seat was eliminated in Republican-led mid-decade redistricting ordered by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rather than run in a new, whiter district that favored Trump, she chose to compete in the 20th, drawing criticism from local Black leaders, the Broward Black Democratic Caucus, and Congressional Black Caucus members who saw her candidacy as a threat to Black political representation already weakened by the Supreme Court's rollback of the Voting Rights Act; Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined to endorse her.

Wasserman Schultz defeated a divided field of four Black challengers — former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, rapper Luther "Luke" Campbell, Elijah Manley, and Dale Holness — leaning on seniority, fundraising, and an Appropriations Committee seat while her rivals split the opposing vote. Her win makes her the only white House member representing a plurality or majority-Black district heading into 2027, following the elimination of Rep. Steve Cohen's Memphis district by Tennessee Republicans. The broader Florida redistricting effort cut four Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the midterms.

Florida Republicans are scaling back expectations that a new, more favorable congressional map will translate into major House gains in 2026. The map, championed by Gov. Ron DeSantis and passed by the GOP-controlled legislature, aimed to push the party's current 20-8 delegation edge toward 24-4, despite lawsuits challenging it under Florida's anti-gerrymandering standards. Courts allowed the map to stand for 2026.

DeSantis, who is term-limited and leaving office in January, has acknowledged the political climate has shifted since his 2022 landslide, citing fallout from the Iran conflict, gas prices, and economic concerns weighing on Trump's standing in the state. Neither Trump nor DeSantis will appear on this year's ballot, removing a turnout driver Republicans relied on previously. One GOP operative said districts Trump carried by single digits in 2024 are now competitive, with financing and the strength of statewide candidates, including gubernatorial nominee Rep. Byron Donalds, likely to influence down-ballot outcomes. DeSantis has begun directing super PAC funds to congressional candidates in open and Democrat-held seats as the party works to defend its redistricting advantage.

Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.

Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.

With about four weeks until Election Day, Florida's 13th congressional district remains one of the cycle's most closely watched races. Recent polling from Fox News and Inside Elections shows the seat shifting from "likely Republican" to "leaning Republican," signaling a tighter contest than previously expected.

Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna, who has held the seat since 2022, is campaigning on an anti-corruption record, citing her push to release Epstein-related files and efforts to ban congressional insider trading. Democratic challenger Leela Gray, a retired brigadier general, argues Luna's trading-ban proposal is incomplete and is calling for a broader ban on stock trading, prediction-market betting, and donor-linked investments across all three branches of government. Gray has accused Luna of conflicts of interest tied to a donor's oil company, while Luna has countered that Gray has downplayed her own financial ties to pharmaceutical and banking interests. Both campaigns deny the other's claims as voters prepare to decide the race.

Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination for Florida's 14th Congressional District, defeating state Republican Kevin Steele and other primary contenders. Beltran, a former Florida House member, will now face longtime Democratic incumbent Kathy Castor in November's general election.

Beltran celebrated the primary win with supporters in Tampa, crediting a grassroots campaign and his record as a state representative for the victory. He said the campaign now shifts focus entirely to the general election matchup against Castor, a fixture in Hillsborough County's congressional delegation. The race adds another closely watched contest to Florida's House lineup as both parties look toward November, with control of individual seats carrying broader implications for the overall balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Republicans in Florida's Naples-area congressional district are heading into a crowded primary to succeed Representative Byron Donalds, who is running for governor. The race to fill his seat has drawn a notably unusual field, including several candidates who previously ran for or served in Congress representing other states before relocating to Florida.

Much of the contest has centered on candidates competing to demonstrate loyalty to President Trump and establish credibility as genuine Floridians, producing what commentators have described as an unusually chaotic and closely watched down-ballot primary. Donalds enters Tuesday's primary as the GOP gubernatorial frontrunner with Trump's endorsement, facing Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner, and businessman James Fishback, each arguing he needs to be challenged or replaced as the party's standard-bearer; Governor DeSantis has declined to endorse a successor. The winner will face Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican, in November. The outcome matters for prediction markets tracking control of a safely Republican House seat, as well as broader signals about Trump-aligned candidate strength heading into the 2026 midterms and Florida's leadership transition.

With under two weeks until Election Day, Florida has drawn heavy national attention, with surrogates from both parties campaigning across the state. President Trump is set to rally with Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, whose campaign faced scrutiny after briefly removing Trump references from its website, which Donalds called routine updates. Vice President JD Vance has framed the election as a choice between continuing current GOP policies or returning to Biden-era priorities. Democrats, hoping to flip seats, deployed Bernie Sanders for Senate candidate Angie Nixon against incumbent Ashley Moody, while Bill Clinton campaigned with gubernatorial candidate David Jolly. Competitive U.S. House races in Florida's 13th and 14th districts are also drawing close attention.

Florida Rep. Cory Mills lost his Republican primary in the state's 7th Congressional District to former TV anchor Ryan Elijah, ending his bid for a third term. Mills's campaign was marked by allegations of sexual misconduct, a court injunction from a former girlfriend, a House Ethics Committee investigation into misconduct and campaign finance claims, and questions about his military record. President Trump had given Mills his "Complete and Total Endorsement" in February, but later distanced himself by excluding Mills from a round of congressional endorsements. Florida incumbents Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos, along with Gov. Ron DeSantis, backed Elijah instead.

Elijah will face Democrat and military veteran Bale Dalton in November. The district is expected to remain Republican-leaning under Florida's newly redrawn congressional map, though analysts note the race could factor into broader midterm dynamics as Democrats are currently favored to retake the House majority.