Illinois 5th Congressional District: 2026 House Race

Virginia's 1st and 5th congressional districts have drawn roughly $1.1 million in combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, the most activity among the state's House races, as both could factor into control of Congress. In the 5th District, Republican Rep. John McGuire is favored over Democrat Tom Perriello. In the 1st District, Democrat Shannon Taylor is favored to flip the seat held by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman. A third race, the 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria, has also seen heavy betting, with markets strongly favoring Luria.

More broadly, prediction markets favor Democrats to retake the House and give them an edge in the Senate, with over $165 million traded on House control and $99 million on the Senate across both platforms.

Democratic Rep. Janelle Bynum debated Republican challenger Patti Adair, a Deschutes County commissioner, in a televised matchup for Oregon's 5th Congressional District, broadcast on KTVZ 21 and livestreamed at KTVZ.com. The forum was moderated by news anchor Lee Anderson, with a panel including KTVZ political reporter Spencer Sacks and Aaron Switzer, founder of Bend-based alternative weekly The Source.

Bynum, serving her first term in Congress after four terms in the Oregon House, flipped the seat from Republican control in 2024, defeating Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who later became U.S. Labor secretary under President Trump, by a 2.7-point margin — the closest race in Oregon that cycle. She was the first Black Oregonian elected to Congress. Despite that narrow win, the Cook Political Report now rates the seat "solid Democratic." Bynum has significantly outraised her opponent, collecting about $3.76 million through June 30 compared to Adair's $423,921, making her the top fundraiser among Oregon's congressional delegation.

Illinois Democrats are split on strategy ahead of potential midterm gains that could hand their party control of the House and possibly the Senate. Some, like Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who is running for Senate, favor confrontation, including refusing to confirm Trump nominees or fund ICE and potentially ending the filibuster. Others, including Sen. Tammy Duckworth and Rep. Bill Foster, favor combining aggressive oversight of Trump officials and businesses with legislative wins, while downplaying quick impeachment. Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Trump himself, warn that a Democratic majority would mean relentless investigations and a renewed impeachment push.

The debate reflects broader uncertainty over Democratic strategy and control of Congress following the November midterms, a key variable for prediction markets tracking the 2026 elections and any renewed impeachment proceedings.

With Election Day a week away, Illinois Democrats are campaigning beyond state lines to aid party allies nationally. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi backed Texas Railroad Commissioner candidate Jon Rosenthal; Sen. Tammy Duckworth campaigned for Sherrod Brown in Ohio; Rahm Emanuel canvassed in New Hampshire; and Rep. Danny Davis and successor nominee La Shawn Ford campaigned for Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate David Crowley. Gov. JB Pritzker is focused on his own reelection, holding a large cash advantage and backing fellow Democrats financially.

Big money is also flowing into Illinois races, including Chicago school board contests, with GOP megadonors Dick and Elizabeth Uihlein and wealthy Democratic-aligned groups both spending heavily to shape outcomes from Springfield to Chicago.

Illinois Democrats gathered at the state fair in Springfield for their annual Democrats' Day, with Gov. JB Pritzker, Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren delivering anti-Trump speeches while downplaying ideological rifts roiling the national party. Warren praised Senate candidate Juliana Stratton for standing up to AIPAC and corporate PACs, touching on divisions over Israel-Gaza policy and campaign finance that have proven more combustible elsewhere. But the celebratory tone was clouded by House Speaker Chris Welch's handling of a sexual harassment scandal involving former Rep. Harry Benton, and the recent indictment of Rep. Carol Ammons and her husband on fraud charges. Welch skipped the main event; three House Democrats have refused to join his working group on the harassment issue, calling its formation flawed.

A day later, Republicans held their own fairground rally, with Gov. candidate Darren Bailey and running mate Aaron Del Mar attacking Pritzker over cost of living, public safety and schools while avoiding mention of Trump. Senate candidate Don Tracy branded Stratton and Democratic Socialist allies as extreme, and House GOP leader Tony McCombie renewed criticism of Welch. Separately, the DNC narrowed its 2028 convention host shortlist to Boston, Denver and Philadelphia, excluding Chicago, which hosted in 2024 and remains in contention for 2032. Pritzker's campaign also launched a TV ad branding Bailey as extreme ahead of November.

Project 50, a political group founded by Illinois abortion-rights veterans including former state Sen. Heather Steans and ex-HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, is working to replicate Illinois' decades-old shift toward abortion access by targeting state legislative races in conservative states with bans or heavy restrictions. After early setbacks in Arizona, the group refocused on culturally conservative states in 2023, winning three races in its first three years and four more in 2025, including in Virginia. It has raised over $3.7 million from donors such as Michael Bloomberg and Gov. JB Pritzker. Organizers say the strategy targets voters uneasy with total abortion bans, not broad support for unrestricted access. Abortion-rights opponents call its electoral impact limited so far.

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, seen as a potential 2028 presidential contender, headlined the Democratic Party of Illinois' annual fundraiser at Navy Pier in Chicago, criticizing President Donald Trump and Republicans while rallying Democrats ahead of the midterm elections. Moore accused Trump's administration of "lining their own pockets" on issues including the Iran conflict and economic policy.

Moore, introduced by Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker — who also has White House ambitions — recounted Pritzker's outreach after the 2024 collapse of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge, then drew parallels between Maryland and Illinois's civil rights legacies to applause from more than 800 attendees. Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, and Senate nominee Juliana Stratton also spoke, with Durbin criticizing Trump's spending priorities.

The event underscores early jockeying among Democratic governors positioning themselves for 2028 while shoring up party support in battleground-adjacent states ahead of the midterms.

Illinois and California lawmakers have introduced legislation to block the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) from closing its Chicago and San Francisco/San Bruno facilities, a plan first disclosed to staff in a June email. The Chicago site, many of whose records are undigitized and accessible only in person, holds documents including Pullman Strike court cases, Bureau of Indian Affairs files, and naturalization and census records used by researchers, genealogists and citizenship applicants.

Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García sent a letter to the Archivist of the United States demanding the closure be halted, signed by 20 members of Congress including Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth of Illinois and backed by California Sens. Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff. Durbin and Duckworth also introduced the National Archives Protection Act, which would require congressional approval before NARA can close or restrict access to regional facilities; a companion House bill was filed by Rep. Kevin Mullin. NARA has said records would be redistributed to facilities in Kansas City, Boston and Seattle. NARA did not respond to requests for comment. Archivists' advocates say the closures would harm access to records regardless of political affiliation.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has rejected Illinois' request for a major disaster declaration following severe storms, flooding, straight-line winds and tornadoes that struck the state in August. FEMA Administrator Cameron Hamilton said federal assistance was "not warranted," affecting Champaign, Cook, Ford, Fulton, McLean, Tazewell, Vermilion and Will counties. Gov. JB Pritzker's office says the state will appeal, citing extensive damage to homes, infrastructure and widespread power outages. Pritzker accused Trump of playing politics with disaster relief, a charge echoed by Illinois Democrats including Sen. Dick Durbin and Rep. Robin Kelly, while Republican Rep. Darin LaHood also urged approval of the declaration.

The denial follows renewed attacks by Trump on Chicago over crime and comes amid separate reporting that Trump approved disaster aid for Ohio ahead of a campaign rally while leaving other states' requests pending. Trump has also approved aid for Hawaii and New Hampshire, complicating claims of a partisan pattern. The White House denies any political motive behind its disaster aid decisions.

With early voting in its final week, Rep. Jahana Hayes and Republican challenger Chris Shea, a firefighter, are making closing arguments in Connecticut's 5th District, widely seen as the state's closest congressional race. Shea wants to extend federal tax breaks on overtime pay and state/local tax deductions set to expire in 2028, and cites a campaign poll showing a six-point gap. Hayes, seeking a fifth term, disputes that the race is close, says the poll figures are unverified elsewhere, and is campaigning on reversing Trump administration cuts to Medicaid and SNAP. Independent write-in candidate Jonathan Debarros, who lost the GOP primary to Shea, is also on the ballot.