New York's 5th congressional district

Virginia's 1st and 5th congressional districts have drawn roughly $1.1 million in combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, the most activity among the state's House races, as both could factor into control of Congress. In the 5th District, Republican Rep. John McGuire is favored over Democrat Tom Perriello. In the 1st District, Democrat Shannon Taylor is favored to flip the seat held by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman. A third race, the 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria, has also seen heavy betting, with markets strongly favoring Luria.

More broadly, prediction markets favor Democrats to retake the House and give them an edge in the Senate, with over $165 million traded on House control and $99 million on the Senate across both platforms.

With early voting in its final week, Rep. Jahana Hayes and Republican challenger Chris Shea, a firefighter, are making closing arguments in Connecticut's 5th District, widely seen as the state's closest congressional race. Shea wants to extend federal tax breaks on overtime pay and state/local tax deductions set to expire in 2028, and cites a campaign poll showing a six-point gap. Hayes, seeking a fifth term, disputes that the race is close, says the poll figures are unverified elsewhere, and is campaigning on reversing Trump administration cuts to Medicaid and SNAP. Independent write-in candidate Jonathan Debarros, who lost the GOP primary to Shea, is also on the ballot.

Democratic Rep. Janelle Bynum debated Republican challenger Patti Adair, a Deschutes County commissioner, in a televised matchup for Oregon's 5th Congressional District, broadcast on KTVZ 21 and livestreamed at KTVZ.com. The forum was moderated by news anchor Lee Anderson, with a panel including KTVZ political reporter Spencer Sacks and Aaron Switzer, founder of Bend-based alternative weekly The Source.

Bynum, serving her first term in Congress after four terms in the Oregon House, flipped the seat from Republican control in 2024, defeating Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who later became U.S. Labor secretary under President Trump, by a 2.7-point margin — the closest race in Oregon that cycle. She was the first Black Oregonian elected to Congress. Despite that narrow win, the Cook Political Report now rates the seat "solid Democratic." Bynum has significantly outraised her opponent, collecting about $3.76 million through June 30 compared to Adair's $423,921, making her the top fundraiser among Oregon's congressional delegation.