Bellwether

California's Proposition 40 would create the first U.S. tax on billionaires' net worth, but two rival measures, Propositions 41 and 42, contain "poison pill" language that could nullify it even if it wins a majority. Polling shows all three measures drawing majority support, pointing to voter confusion over the ballot language. A billionaire-backed coalition, including Sergey Brin and Eric Schmidt, has bankrolled the opposition, with spending topping $350 million against roughly $34 million raised by supporters, including labor unions like SEIU-UHW. Democrats are split: Bernie Sanders backs Prop. 40 while Gavin Newsom opposes it, favoring a national wealth tax instead. If competing measures both pass, the outcome would likely be settled in court.

A new Free Press Indiana/Bellwether Research poll shows Democrat Beau Bayh leading Republican Max Engling in the race for Indiana Secretary of State, 43% to 35%. Libertarian Lauri Shillings drew 6% and Lincoln Party candidate Greg Ballard, a former Indianapolis mayor, drew 5%, with 11% undecided. The race drew heightened attention after incumbent Diego Morales lost his GOP renomination bid at the party's June convention. Bayh led in most regions, including Indianapolis and the Chicago/South Bend/Elkhart/Lafayette area, while Engling performed best around Fort Wayne. Bayh also posted the highest favorability rating among the four candidates, while more than 40% of voters said they had never heard of Engling, Ballard or Shillings.

The same survey of 896 registered voters, conducted Oct. 8-11 with a margin of error of ±3.4%, found Democrat Jessica Bailey narrowly ahead in the State Comptroller race and Republican Daniel Elliott leading in the State Treasurer contest. Indiana's general election is Nov. 3, with absentee ballot applications due Oct. 22.

New polling shows President Donald Trump's approval sliding in Pennsylvania even as Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro gains strength heading into his reelection bid, a divergence political observers say could shape the 2026 midterms. Pennsylvania is home to four closely watched House races this cycle, contests that could help determine which party controls the chamber.

Trump's weakening standing in the key swing state, combined with Shapiro's rising popularity ahead of a widely anticipated 2028 presidential run, is seen as adding pressure on Republican candidates trying to hold their seats. Analysts view Pennsylvania as an early bellwether for broader national sentiment, given its mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters and its history of swinging between parties in recent elections. The state's results and polling trends are likely to draw outsized attention from forecasters and prediction markets tracking both the House majority battle and early positioning for the next presidential race.

Delaware voters headed to the polls Tuesday in the last state primary before November, choosing nominees for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, attorney general, treasurer, and legislative seats. Polls closed at 8 p.m. ET.

Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, seeking a third full term, faced three primary challengers, including Eric Hansen, the 2024 Republican Senate nominee now running as a Democrat under the ballot name "E. No-Trump Hansen." Coons significantly outraised his rivals. On the Republican side, former state Sen. Michael Katz and Army Reserves Col. John Shulli competed for the nomination. Rep. Sarah McBride ran unopposed for a second term. Attorney General Kathy Jennings faced two Democratic primary challengers, while Republican David Graham ran unopposed. The treasurer's race was the state's only open statewide seat, with three Democrats competing and Republican Michael Ramone unopposed.

Despite a midterm climate historically unfavorable to the president's party, Delaware's statewide offices are expected to remain solidly Democratic, extending a streak dating to the 1990s. All 41 state House seats and about half of the state Senate seats were also on the ballot.

Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden is running for reelection in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District by embracing President Trump rather than distancing himself, betting that energizing the conservative base outweighs risks from Trump's sagging approval ratings, the Iran war, and economic worries. He faces a rematch with Democrat Rebecca Cooke, whom he beat by less than 3 points in 2022. The historically bellwether district, carried by both Obama and Trump in past elections, is a top Democratic pickup target this cycle.

Van Orden has voted with Trump nearly 100% of the time, hosted top administration officials in his district, and drawn Elon Musk-linked PAC spending on his behalf. Cooke, backed by both moderate and progressive Democrats including Bernie Sanders, argues Van Orden's close alignment with an unpopular president is a liability, while Van Orden has also faced criticism for AI-generated videos attacking Cooke. Both candidates are courting independents and frustrated voters as the race is seen as pivotal to control of the House.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom capped a multi-state "take it back tour" with eight public events across South Carolina, plus stops in Alabama and North Carolina, intensifying speculation about a 2028 Democratic presidential run. In North Carolina, Newsom campaigned for U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper in Charlotte and rallied Labor Day weekend crowds in Monroe, urging Democrats to focus on the 2026 midterms rather than 2028. He accused Trump of ruthlessness, corruption and attempting to "nationalize" elections through mail-in voting restrictions, telling supporters it's time to "fight fire with fire." Newsom told the Associated Press a 2028 decision could come before year's end.

Voters and strategists increasingly frame California itself as Newsom's central liability, with critics warning his state's liberal image could hurt him against rivals like Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans, including North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley and local officials, mocked the visits with "Wrong Coast" signs and accused him of trying to "California" their states. Newsom's team counters that his progressive record on health care, wages and climate could be an asset in a Democratic primary. South Carolina, hosting Democrats' first 2028 primary, remains a key early proving ground alongside hopefuls like Cory Booker.

A New York Times report portrays Ohio as broadly frustrated with the state of things, with one resident summing up the mood as "all dumpy" — citing closed businesses, deteriorating roads, and high grocery prices. The dissatisfaction spans the political spectrum, with voters criticizing institutions and politics generally rather than aligning cleanly with one party.

The discontent comes as Ohio, once a reliable swing state that shifted solidly red during the Trump era, now features toss-up races for governor and U.S. Senate along with several competitive congressional contests, including the Cleveland-area 7th District, where Democratic union ironworker Brian Poindexter is challenging scandal-affected Republican incumbent Rep. Max Miller. Analysts note that widespread frustration does not necessarily translate into a Democratic advantage, complicating forecasts for the state's 2026 midterm outcomes.

Ohio, once a national bellwether that has trended Republican over the past two decades, is drawing fresh attention as a potential proving ground for Democrats heading into the midterms. Amid rising optimism within the party about regaining power in Washington, analysts point to Ohio as a state where Democrats could make gains beyond typical swing-state battlegrounds.

Polling suggests Democrats have a realistic shot at flipping a U.S. Senate seat and the governorship, an office the party has held only once, and only for a single term, since 1991. There is also talk of the party competing for one or two additional U.S. House seats in the state. A strong showing in Ohio would offer evidence that Democrats can rebuild support among working-class voters who shifted toward Republicans in recent election cycles, a dynamic with implications for how the party approaches messaging nationally in 2026.