Massachusetts Senate Election: Who Will Win in 2026
Massachusetts voters head to the polls in 2026 to fill the state’s U.S. Senate seat. The race sits in a heavily Democratic state, meaning the general election outcome hinges largely on who emerges from the primary contests. Statewide officials, sitting legislators, and lesser-known challengers are all weighing bids as the field takes shape.
Why Markets Are Watching
A Massachusetts Senate seat carries real weight for the chamber’s partisan balance and committee assignments. The outcome will shape how the state’s congressional delegation approaches national policy fights over the next term. Local dynamics, including name recognition and incumbency, will likely decide the race more than national trends.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a crowded field into a single tradeable question: which individual or party ultimately wins the seat. Separate listings for specific candidates let traders isolate primary strength from general-election viability. Broader party-line contracts capture the baseline expectation in a state where one party has historically dominated statewide races.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States Senate -
United States Congress -
General election -
Primary election -
Massachusetts -
Democrat Party (epithet) -
Election -
New England -
Anti-incumbency -
2010 United States Senate special election in Massachusetts -
Massachusetts's congressional delegations
Total Volume
$733.4k
Kalshi $145.3k · Polymarket $588.1k
Leading Market
Ed Markey
Kalshi 99%
Ed Markey Volume
$49.7k
Kalshi $49.7k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed MarkeyDemocratic Party | 98.8¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Edward J. MarkeyDemocratic Party | — | — | — | 99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| John DeanRepublican Party | 1.7¢ | 7.0% |
|
2.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Massachusetts voters to decide nine ballot questions in 2026 election
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Massachusetts voters face nine ballot questions in the 2026 election, the most in over three decades, covering public records access, labor rights, election rules, taxation, land conservation, housing, marijuana, and guns.
Question 1 would extend public records law to the governor's office and Legislature, championed by state Auditor Diana DiZoglio over objections that it is too broad. Question 2 would let Committee for Public Counsel Services employees unionize. Question 3 would replace party primaries with a single open primary advancing the top two finishers, backed by advocates seeking more competitive races but opposed by the state Democratic Party. Question 4 would allow same-day voter registration. Question 5 would cap state revenue growth and require rebates above that limit. Question 6 would dedicate certain taxes to a conservation fund. Question 7 would permit single-family homes on smaller lots statewide to boost affordable housing, despite local-control concerns. Question 8 would repeal legal recreational marijuana. Question 9 asks whether to keep or repeal the state's 2024 gun reform law, with both sides framing it as a matter of safety or constitutional rights.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is the factual setting for the ballot questions without positive or negative framing.
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Elections
New Hampshire primary voters set fall matchups for open Senate and House seats
PN Team • 2 months ago
New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.
Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.
Sources:
Sentiment
- John E. Sununu Sununu is shown holding a wide lead with Trump's endorsement, a favorable portrayal of his campaign strength.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement of Sununu is portrayed as a boost to Sununu's campaign, reflecting positively on Trump's political influence.
- Israel Israel is mentioned in the context of controversy over arms sales and donor support affecting Pappas' campaign.
- New Hampshire New Hampshire is the setting of the primary election, described factually as undergoing a normal electoral process.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party's crowded primary fields are described factually without clear favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party's competitive primary races are reported neutrally.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the office being contested, with no reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives The House seat race is described factually without reputational implications for the institution.
- United States Senate The Senate seat and its national significance are discussed neutrally.
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Politics
Massachusetts Lawmakers Push to Make Food a Constitutional Right
PN Team • 2 days ago
At a food rights panel at UMass Amherst, U.S. Rep. James McGovern, state Sen. Jo Comerford, and state Rep. Mindy Domb argued that food access should be enshrined as a constitutional right in Massachusetts, framing hunger as a solvable political problem rather than a resource shortage. Rising costs for food, housing, and health care have left roughly half of Americans unable to afford a basic standard of living, according to the Urban Institute, with one report finding 60% of Massachusetts college students now food insecure, up sharply from the prior year. Lawmakers also pointed to federal SNAP cuts as worsening local hunger, and said the state is exploring funding to help colleges address student food insecurity.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Jim McGovern (American politician) Portrayed as a proactive advocate pushing to address hunger through policy.
- Massachusetts State highlighted for worsening hunger and food insecurity statistics, a mildly negative framing.
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Elections
New Hampshire Senate Race Tests Sununu Family Brand
PN Team • 4 days ago
John E. Sununu, a Republican and member of New Hampshire's prominent political family, is running for the state's open U.S. Senate seat in 2026 against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. Republicans have won a Senate race in the state just three times this century, including Sununu's 2002 victory, underscoring the seat's difficulty for the GOP. His campaign faces headwinds tied to national political conditions, including President Trump's standing and broader midterm dynamics historically unfavorable to the party holding the White House. The race is one of several competitive 2026 Senate contests that could help determine which party controls the chamber.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump His political standing is cited as a headwind weighing against the Republican candidate.
- Republican Party (United States) Described as facing a difficult seat and headwinds in the race.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the opposing party with a historical edge in the state's Senate races.
- John E. Sununu Portrayed as a prominent but underdog candidate facing a tough historical path.
- New Hampshire Setting for the Senate race, described neutrally in terms of political history.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as Pappas's current chamber, a factual detail.
- United States Senate Factual mention of the open seat being contested in the chamber.
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Elections
Susan Collins holds narrow lead over Democrat Troy Jackson in new Maine poll
PN Team • 1 month ago
A New York Times/Siena University poll released Sept. 24 shows Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, leading Democratic challenger Troy Jackson 49% to 46%, the best result for Collins in any public poll since Jackson entered the race in July. A separate UMass Lowell/YouGov poll taken earlier in September had Jackson ahead by five points, underscoring how close and unsettled the race remains.
Collins is the only Republican senator up for reelection in a state Trump largely lost in 2024, making the seat a top Democratic target. She has historically outperformed polling, having won comfortably in 2020 despite trailing throughout that campaign. The Times poll was conducted largely before a Sept. 22 ProPublica report alleging a pay-to-play scheme tied to her 2020 campaign, which Collins denies, calling it a "partisan hit job." Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, entered the race after primary winner Graham Platner dropped out amid misconduct allegations. Voters see Collins favorably despite her largely pro-Trump voting record in 2025, while a majority in Maine disapprove of Trump's job performance.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are noted as targeting the seat with Jackson as their challenger, a neutral factual mention.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned as having lost Maine and having low approval there, a mildly unfavorable contextual detail.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican Party mentioned neutrally in context of Collins being the only GOP senator up for reelection in a Trump-losing state.
- Maine Maine is the central location of the Senate race, mentioned factually throughout.
- Susan Collins Collins is shown leading narrowly and historically outperforming polls, but also facing a damaging scandal allegation, balancing out to a near-neutral portrayal.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is the subject of the race but is mentioned only factually.
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Corporate
Fidelity Investments ends hybrid work, mandates full-time office return in Boston
PN Team • 2 months ago
Fidelity Investments has ended its hybrid work policy for its Boston-based workforce, requiring more than 6,000 employees to return to in-person work five days a week starting this week. The change ends a two-out-of-four-weeks hybrid arrangement that had been in place for the past two years, making Fidelity one of the largest Boston employers to fully reverse pandemic-era remote work flexibility.
The shift is expected to add to local commuter traffic and is being closely watched as a signal of broader corporate return-to-office trends among major financial and investment firms. Fidelity's move follows similar full-time office mandates from other large employers nationally, as companies weigh productivity, culture, and real estate considerations against employee preferences for flexibility. The change coincides with the start of the school year in Boston, compounding morning commute congestion in the area.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Boston Boston is mentioned mainly as the location affected by increased commuter traffic, a neutral factual reference.
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Local & State
Holyoke St. Patrick’s celebrations generate $39.3 million in annual economic impact, study finds
PN Team • 1 month ago
A new economic impact study commissioned by the St. Patrick's Committee of Holyoke found that the city's St. Patrick's Parade, road race and related events generate about $39.3 million in annual economic output for Hampden and Hampshire counties in Massachusetts. Conducted by Cambridge Econometrics, the study estimated the celebrations support 275 jobs, produce $10.6 million in wages, and create $23.4 million in new local sales after accounting for spending that would have occurred anyway.
The parade drew roughly 350,000 spectators and the road race about 56,000 participants and spectators, including 6,000 runners, with visitor spending topping $23 million. Local businesses, including hotels and restaurants, reported major revenue spikes during the weekend. The study also found the events generate about $2.3 million in state tax revenue and $86,000 for Holyoke, and credited roughly 200 volunteers who contribute about 32,000 hours annually, work valued near $970,000. It was the first study to include the road race alongside the parade.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is positively associated with the state tax revenue generated and the counties involved.
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Elections
Massachusetts holds primary vote in Markey-Moulton Senate showdown
PN Team • 2 months ago
Massachusetts voters headed to the polls Tuesday in a primary highlighted by a competitive Democratic Senate contest between incumbent Sen. Ed Markey, 80, and U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton, 47. The race reverses a familiar dynamic in this year's Democratic primaries, with progressives Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez backing the incumbent over the more moderate challenger. Markey held a large fundraising advantage and led recent polls by double digits; Moulton, a Marine veteran and 2020 presidential candidate, drew support from The Boston Globe's editorial board, New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, and VoteVets. Moulton has also faced scrutiny over past comments on transgender athletes, which he has since apologized for. The primary winner will face Republican John Deaton in November.
Similar generational clashes played out down-ballot: progressive attorney Patrick Roath, who has spent more than $1 million on his campaign, challenged longtime Rep. Stephen Lynch in the 8th District, while a crowded six-way Democratic field, including Dan Koh and Tram Nguyen, competed to succeed Moulton in the 6th District. Other notable races include a Republican gubernatorial primary between Mike Minogue and Brian Shortsleeve, and contested district attorney races in Norfolk and Suffolk counties. Given the state's heavy Democratic lean, primary winners are strongly favored in November, with results shaping the competitive landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Sources:
Sentiment
- United States Marine Corps Positively noted as Moulton's military background, lending him a favorable veteran credential.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Portrayed positively as a progressive figure endorsing the incumbent, aligning her with the progressive movement's stance.
- Bernie Sanders Portrayed positively as a prominent progressive backing Markey.
- Elizabeth Warren Noted positively as a progressive senator supporting the incumbent.
- Democratic Party (United States) The article describes competitive Democratic primaries without clear favorable or unfavorable framing of the party itself.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned only factually as the general-election opponent's party via John Deaton.
- Massachusetts Referenced factually as the state holding the primary election.
- New Jersey Referenced factually as the state governed by Mikie Sherrill, who is mentioned as an endorser.
- United States Congress Referenced factually as the body these candidates seek to join.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced factually as the chamber where Moulton and Lynch currently serve.
- United States Senate Referenced factually as the seat being contested in the primary.
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Congress
Markey defeats Moulton in Massachusetts Senate primary, resisting generational-change push
PN Team • 2 months ago
Sen. Ed Markey, 80, has defeated Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, in Massachusetts' Democratic Senate primary, turning back a generational-change challenge to secure his party's nomination for a third full term. Moulton, a Marine veteran and moderate, argued Markey's decades in Washington hadn't delivered results, while Markey rallied progressives by citing his 2022 climate legislation and backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Moulton also faced criticism over 2024 remarks on transgender athletes, which he apologized for; in his concession speech he pledged to support Markey and said his campaign had started necessary conversations. Markey, who beat Joe Kennedy III in 2020, now advances as the favorite against Republican John Deaton, who was unopposed in his primary and previously lost to Warren by about 20 points, and Markey says he won't seek a fourth term if reelected.
Similar generational contests played out down-ballot: Rep. Stephen Lynch, 71, defeated attorney Patrick Roath, 39, in the 8th District, and Rep. Richard Neal, 77, defeated progressive teacher Jeromie Whalen, 39, in the 1st District, with older incumbents prevailing in both races. A crowded six-way race also continues to replace Moulton in the 6th District, led by Dan Koh and state Rep. Tram Nguyen. Because Massachusetts leans heavily Democratic, these primaries effectively decide the general election winners in November.
Sentiment
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement is portrayed as helping Markey rally progressive support, a mildly favorable association.
- Bernie Sanders Sanders' endorsement helped Markey rally progressives, reflecting positively on his influence.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic primary contest is central to the story, reflecting the party's internal generational debate but without clear reputational harm or benefit.
- Elizabeth Warren Warren is mentioned as an endorser of Markey and as having previously defeated Deaton, a neutral-to-mildly favorable factual mention.
- Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. is referenced negatively by Moulton as symbolic of Markey's long tenure failing to deliver results.
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is the setting of the elections, mentioned factually without clear reputational impact.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican John Deaton is mentioned as the general election opponent in a factual, neutral context.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced factually as the body Markey has served in for decades.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned factually as the chamber Moulton, Lynch, and Neal serve in.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is the subject of the primary race, mentioned factually.
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Elections
Independent Bill Hill trails Rep. Nick Begich in Alaska House race after primary
PN Team • 2 months ago
Alaska's U.S. House primary has narrowed to a general-election contest between Republican incumbent Nick Begich, independent Bill Hill, an incarcerated New York Democrat, and a Fairbanks Libertarian, after several Democratic contenders dropped out. Certified results showed Begich winning the primary with 44.6% to Hill's 32.5%, a 12-point gap. Anchorage Democrat Matt Schultz, the party's former front-runner, suspended his campaign in July, citing weak institutional support, and endorsed Hill; other Democratic candidates also withdrew to consolidate anti-Begich votes.
Hill, a Dena'ina Athabascan educator and fisherman, is campaigning on healthcare costs and inflation while also backing oil and gas development alongside renewables. Begich, part of a prominent Alaska political family who unseated Mary Peltola in 2024, is running on legislative wins including energy development measures and the Trump-backed tax and spending law. Begich holds a large fundraising edge. Political analysts are split: some see a plausible path for Hill given Alaska's heavy independent registration and a national climate favoring Democrats and independents, while others call Begich's reelection all but certain under Alaska's ranked-choice general election system.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates withdrew due to weak institutional support, a mildly unfavorable portrayal.
- Independent politician Independent candidate Bill Hill is framed as having a plausible path amid favorable conditions for independents.
- Mary Peltola Mary Peltola is mentioned as having lost her seat to Begich, a negative reference to her political standing.
- Donald Trump Trump's tax and spending law is cited as a legislative achievement Begich campaigns on.
- New York (state) An incarcerated New York Democrat running in the race is a mildly unfavorable detail tied to the state reference.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican incumbent is leading comfortably in the primary, a favorable position.
- Alaska Alaska is the setting of the race, described neutrally with mention of its political dynamics.
- Anchorage, Alaska Anchorage is mentioned as the hometown of a withdrawn candidate, a neutral factual detail.
- United States Congress Referenced only as context for the House race, without direct reputational impact.
- United States House of Representatives The article centers on a House race but treats the institution neutrally.
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